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Org30.... RM has talked about this, and explains it far clearer than I can in, so perhaps relisten to one of his talks.... but from what I picked up, RM was surprised that SNG001 was so effective in later stage hospitalised patients.... as it was a generally held view that interferons should only be given earlier on.
I guess that why we need to prove it again in larger numbers, on later stage in a P3, as well as a trial on patents in ICU/ventilators.
In fact Numis go on to say that their £50 prediction is based on only a 15% share of sales (with big pharma taking 85%)..... and if sales/ could be achieved through Clinigen instead, then Synairgen would receive a higher 50% share.... so presumable a higher share price. Which I believe is the route RM is now intending to take.
I did have mixed views on this... Big pharma would sell more, so a smaller profit on a larger amount may be more than a bigger profit on a smaller amount. However, as only 100,000 treatments will be able to be produced, for now, then RM is right to take this route.
I remember when Camelot won the bid over Virgin, to run the national lottery... and we were all outraged as Virgin said they would do it for free.... conspiracy theorists came out of the woodwork/back handers allegations... etc. Then, by chance, one evening I sat next to one of the Big cheeses at Camelot, so I said my bit about Virgin doing it free.... etc.... and he simply said that Virgin did not have the infrastructure to collect the kind of money that Camelot did.... so at the end of the day the country/charities would benefit far more due to their volume/amount of tickets/retailers etc..
And this must apply to us too.... If the amount Synairgen could produce was unlimited, then I would want a big pharma involved now.... but it isn't.... it will be, and that is why I believe RM will move onto big pharma once the stockpiling agreements have been agreed.
Numis's report said... and I quote:
" Our Bull case extends to £50 based on the valuations of Modern/BioTech with a need for SNG001 whether or not the vaccines prove successful"
ChrisToffer is also right, the broker did indeed reiterate their targets again post vaccine news.
Axe.... it is confusing I agree. But the 820 is part of the Phase 2 Pivotal trial, it has 3 arms in it, one of which is the home trial.
I believe the first dosing of the Phase 3 will be RNS'd, hopefully next week.
graking.... who in their right mind would NOT take the home trial.... even if you get the placebo, you are monitored by a caring private nurse every day, and advised exactly when to go to hospital if you start going down hill..... rather than sitting alone at home, scared, not knowing what to do or what to take.... it's a no brainer. And that's the worst case scenario..... if you get the drug, worth £3k.... get better very quickly and no long covid... incredible.
Just hasn't been advertised enough, period.
It is worth noting that Numis valuation/revenue forecasts in October were based on a pharma being involved, and SNG receiving only 15% of 21/22 revenues, including potential stockpiling. But a potential agreement with Clinigen could enable Synairgen to receive a 50% revenue.
I believe that RM will charge as much as possible, so $3000 or more. If SNG001 is far superior to Remdesivir why would he charge less for it. The UK is very different to the US in drug pricing, and it's hard to get our heads around that.
I agree that the Numis £50 is not out of the window at all, but basing calculation on 66% net profits is not realistic IMO.
artdralor..... hundreds of thousand of people carry episodes pens in the UK alone.... four in my family alone.... and many, many hundreds of thousands have less life threatening allergies that don't require epipens.
I'm not knocking the vaccine.... I'm just saying that a lot of people assumed that these people could be vaccinated, but because this wasn't highlighted due to lack of data, this was unknown until yesterday.
I think people's point here is, if this was unknown, what else is unknown? And herein lies the reason why vaccines and the safety of them, take 10 years to develop, not 10 months.
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Could I ask those in the know here, which are the best testing kit companies to invest in?
As it is becoming clearer now we are not only going to carry on needing them for testing on Covid, and for future synairgen patients... which will hopefully be many in the years to come.... but also testing how long anti bodies last in people who have had the vaccine. I can see in the future we will all need testing at some stage, and possibly more than once. Novacyt is an obvious one, but I am unsure of the others, and if they actually work properly.... as so many seem not to.
What we need is a 15 minute test that is 99% accurate.... does that exist yet?
Harchris.... I've changed the title for you! Actually I think it's useful to know that Tyla bought a chunk at 80 and is selling at 94.... it explains to the less experienced newcomers why a share needs time to consolidate, after a big drop and then a rise... lots of little Tyla's doing the same thing..... once they have then we move on up again.
Next few weeks and months are going to be sooooo exciting!
Dave.... a mere 13% rise before a 500% raise the next trading day IS a VERY tight ship!
It was 32p on Thursday and 36p on Friday... I was sitting on quite a loss at the time so remember it very well... nothing like a loss to concentrate the mind!!
The day before manic monday (friday) it rose from 32p to 36p, a 13% rise.... it was an unusual rise given the daily drops .... you could smell something was up.
Given that there are more people involved in Synairgen now, a 28% rise the day before news is about right.
Given the unknowns, the most logical answer is usually the right one. But I think it could merely be the first dosing in Phase III. It's been the delay that has caused some of the drop, so it makes sense that this is corrected. RNS in the morning.
Good night all.... and well held!