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Simes
Most people on this board have shareholdings in CF myself included with in excess of 100.000 shares. I assume you have a short position. in support of your belief. Can you perhaps reveal to this board the size of your short position?
I meant dampens out wage inflation.
You know if you add some easy price increases of cards together with increase in employment of under 18s on £6 an hour then after tax profits could surge to 70m. My 2 year price target is about £3.00 for this share even with share price dilution
About your point on higher staff costs... one answer to this... which all retailers are doing... Taking on under 18 year olds more. This then becomes wage deflation or at very least dampens out any wage deflation.
So you are wrong again.
Simes
Your price estimates seem to be based upon the occurrence of yet another major killer covid virus mutant which will once again cause long term shutdowns. However the evidence is against this. Omicron as evidence shows so far is a far milder virus mutation and the UK have one of the highest proportion of vaccinated people in the world. Hence IMHO chance if this occur ing only 20%max. Otherwise for the other 80% I believe you are talking garbage. CF has lowest card prices, elasticity of demand will be low meaning that CF probably could easily ramp up card prices by 30 percent if they wished with very little fall in sale transactions. Consumer behaviour will already in 1st year revert very quickly to pre covid and sales too. Hence 12MTP is more like £ 1.50 to £2.00 and not 20p.
Stupid fearmongers and rumours dominating the markets and especially the press today.
If there any medics on this board, they will know that a vastly mutated COVID South African strain might be more transmissible, might be more untraceable but it will for sure be less deadly a it has mutated so much that unable to attach to cells. Check the South Arica stats on hospitalisations ..none so far with this strain. Its all BS.
Our fearful Government have to be absolute idiots to have another lockdown for something which will be vastly less deadly than the original COVID strain. (Having said that our present Govt are total idiots..)
Lorenzo Lynch
Your opinion is misguided imo. Online card sales will not take off as you imagine and I will tell you why. The cost of postage quite simply and the additional hassle. Work it out what's cheaper buy a card in CF for less than a quid and get to write on your card no delay etc OR pay for the card and posting Also kids parties all cards will be bought in high street and not online. Online cards will be a niche area for more expensive personalised cards. Moonpig will soon come back to reality ...and will fall substantially in value from the superbubble level it is at right now.
Billy Bob I totally agree.
I think Peoplepower needs to learn the basics of accounting prior to talking BS on this forum.
Yes indeed CF did make a mistake of paying out too much dividend in the past instead of paying down debt...but that still shows how strong a profit and cash cow CF is and no reason why it cannot return to this. In future they will need to curb the div and concentrate on boosting the balance sheet and keeping debts in check ....
My calculation below was even an underststement if they add 20% to 225m of sales being CA. 50% of sales that's actually 45m feeding into Boston line in top of 50m precovid profits or looking more like 90m to 100m net profits. Per annum. At 12x earnings =up to 1.2b market cap. Even with a 100m RI at say 50p with 200m additional share issued ..being 540m shares in total post RI we would be looking at a target price over next 2 years of in excess of £2......
If they do this over only 50% if their sales this translates into additional margin of 25m per year which goes right into the profit bottom line....so if we add this to 50m precovid profits we have 75m profits = market cap of 1b ...easily
Or let me explain....card factory sells cards at real low end price....many for 69p....they recently increased by 10p a card....and bould easily increase by another 20% without destroying any demand....
People power the 250m net profits are cumulative over the past 5 years precovid versus boohoo cumulative net profits of 175m.
You are including future leases in the debt of CF which does not really count as debt as is offset in the balance sheet with a similar right to use asset!
You need to learn accounting mate!
And who says the banks wont refinance? Who said this? Even if CF do a 100m RI the price is still dirt cheap.
People power you are talking C..P, where do you get the 500m debt from?
Boohoo originally was saved from banktrupcy not so many years ago from what I can remember - £192m cumulative net profit for the past 5 years versus Card factory £250-£300m. Boohoo valued today at £4b versus CF £220m......mate if you like paying approx. £80 for every £1 of profit, when CF if goes back to precovid profitability would be on at present share price you pay £80 for £20 profit.....your maths is worse than a primary school pupil mate..
Walter,
In the Sunday times article it said they were looking for £100m of which 50m to repay debt and other 50m to presumably cover maybe 25m of losses over past year + investment in growth strategy!
I would prefer you were right but we need to be realistic.
Walter,
In the Sunday times article it said they were looking for £100m of which 50m to repay debt and other 50m to presumably cover maybe 25m of losses over past year + investment in growth strategy!
I would prefer you were right but we need to be realistic.
The problem as we know with rights issue is that it takes a way a lot of upside for the investor.
For example if they did a £100m rights issue, let's say at a 25% discount to present share price of 60p then they would need to issue at 45p and it would be approximately 222 million new shares issued meaning a new total shares of 560 million. On this basis if we expect the share price to recove to nearly pre covid levels in next 12 months and say at least a 10x earnings of say £50m net per annum then the target price becomes only 90p instead of if no RI more like £1.50. The same will apply to any debt for equity swap. Long term however ith expected growth and new strategy however there are arguments over a 2-3 year horizon for the market cap to regain 800- 1b which would mean a share price of 1.50- 1.80. So the RI will kill off s lot of potential short term gain But longer term the share is still a strong buy and hold.