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@Pokerchips, Fed and possibility of recession in 23 all valid concerns, but FE price still substantially higher than it was at the start of the year, FXPO cash pile keeps increasing. The market is very concerned about threats to infrastructure in Central and Western Ukraine, given fighting in the East, but these concerns are overblown. Once it looks like there's a cessation of hostilities in the East (when Russia declares its achieved the objectives of its "special military operation"), this goes to well above 200p a share.
@Legache, What i've done is assess the military threat to Central and Western parts of Ukraine from Russia, i never once emphatically claimed Russia had the capability to take and hold said areas. 13 Apr, i openly stated they couldn't even get past Dnipro, 16th April, i said, "The Russians do not have the troop numbers, weaponry or logistical capability to take and hold land (specifically where FXPO operates)". Why do i think this is important? because there does seem to be a lot of fear in the market related to what Russia is going to do next, and their threat to FXPO's operations. My post history speaks for itself. Unlike the pro-Putin, duginist, "tankie" clown who routinely sets up threads with the usernames of users he disagrees with only to engage in name calling, and holds shares in Russian companies that have a true market value that is worth less than a single sheet of toilet paper.
You calling me a 14 year old, when you've literally just started a new thread to get into name calling. Give your head a wobble and pipe down you absolute clown. If you want to debate, debate facts based on evidence, don't get into name calling. I know why you're getting into name calling, it's because you hold a bunch of worthless shares in companies like Petropavlovsk, and Polymetal, that operate in Russia. Petropavlovsk will default on its debt, and shareholders will be left with absolutely nothing. So again, you're a clown, an even bigger clown than those leading the VDV in Hostomel without air support, an even bigger clown than those in the Russian military who thought placing cope cages on the top of Russian tanks would save them from the fury of Javelin ATGMS, an even bigger clown than those who were put in charge of the flagship Moskva carrier, your post history proves that beyond all doubt.
@LythamSlim8. Repercussions, it's going to be cruise missile strikes against areas the Russians see as important...They don't have the necessary PGM's to do much more than that, so not much changing. The Russians do not have the troop numbers, weaponry or logistical capability to take and hold land (specifically where FXPO operates). Morale is already low amongst Russian troops. This ship was a very important area denial asset for the Russians in the South, that has now been taken out. TB2's and other drones will be able to operate with greater freedom in the South. This helps Odessa, and the efforts to retake Kherson in particular.
@Equanimity, Obviously the iron ore price. I don't think a peace treaty will be signed, and anyone waiting for one will have to wait a very long time. Russia has recognized the independence of DPR and LPR, Ukraine does not accept this as it sees them as part of Ukraine. This is just another stage of a war thats been going on for over 8 years. What lifts the price here is the reduced probability of further military action by Russia towards Central and Western parts of Ukraine (where FXPO operates), this will likely happen after Putin attempts to take Russian speaking areas in the East (which will not be easy), and declares "victory". I don't have an exact price target, but when investors generally begin to realize Russia's military actions pose little threat to FXPO's operations this will be north of 300p a share.
I just don't see an entry at this price down the line, given the results we've seen already (outside of Russia taking and holding areas in which FXPO operates, which isn't happening). The single biggest dampener on the price of FXPO is the Russian military offensive in Ukraine. Macron and LePen are a pair of irrelevant clowns. If Le Pen wants to take France out of NATO (extreme long shot), go ahead, doesn't make a huge difference as France has been about as useful as a white crayon when it comes to any meaningful contribution to NATO. Fed rate rises will play a role . There is a chance there could be a mild recession in 2023, even then i don't think it hampers FXPO's medium term prospects in a substantial way.
Bad news for Russia. Major anti-air asset in the black sea, and the most powerful warship Russia has in the Black Sea. Turks have the Bosphorus shut. A very ignificant event in this phase of the war. Will hit morale further, and ramp up pressure inside Russia on Putin to end this war.
Putin really needs to wrap it up by May. The longer it goes on the greater the danger he has to contend with internally. They've had around 30k killed or wounded, financially it continues to cost them heavily the longer it goes. Their morale is very low, but in the East they'll have better logistics (Russians rely heavily on rail, and there's a decent rail connection to Donbass). Ukrainians did well fighting them in an urban environment where Javelins/NLAWs..etc made a huge difference, and also dealt a severe blow to the reputation of their "elite" VDV. But in the East its a different proposition. Dealing with open area. For the Ukrainians they have some of their best forces located there, switchblade drones and influx of artillery are all going to help.
For FXPO, risk is limited, and the lowest its been since the beginning of the invasion, the results spoke for themselves. The Russians couldn't even give their VDV air adequate air cover, and you have some people talking as if the Russians are going to hit FXPO operations by air. Small chance they may go after rail infrastructure (that affects FXPO) in the West, they are extremely limited in the number of PGM's they possess. Kramatorsk where rail was hit is in the east, and a key target of Russian operations.
FXPO is extremely cheap, and current prices will be ancient history by next month.
Putin likely wants military operations to be wrapped in time for Victory day (early May). In that time they're not getting near to where Ferrexpo operates. Dnipro is a heavily fortified city. Outside of the South (areas they already control, and at a stretch.... them going for Odessa) It is highly unlikely they will extend that far West. They want area they can hold for the long term. Thats basically the parts of Donetsk oblast that they do not already control. They already have a land corridor to Crimea. The Ukrainians will put up a stiff fight, and will not make it easy for them. Putin will frame the conquest of "Novorossiya" as a victory.
Mirasol, Majors still investing in the North Sea, oil prices high partly due to lack of investment in oil and gas, globally. Medium term structurally higher crude prices, this will boost HUR's negotiating position if HUR seek a farm out. Provided FPSO deal done, and bubble point doesn't result in complete shut down, this is going to continue to increase HUR's net cash position.
sh3dman, what takes primacy right now is the fact that HUR have an asset that's producing, the price of brent is the most important factor here, in dealing with short term objectives
"try selling your assets at what you think their worth.. you wont, so why try to embellish the argument that our assets are worth more than the company, so the share price should x pense rather than the current value..."
Well if the price of brent stays where it is, or goes up another $10 HUR pays back bonds and has a net cash position approaching the equivalent of half the current market cap. What value would you assign to the assets/tax credits? 45-50 million GBP? Thats absurd.
If you want to debate this issue you have to bring forth a proper argument, not just repeat "no one will pay x,y,z for this". Thats not a proper argument. You have to negate the argument that hurricanes assets have value.
Sh3dman, You could have made exactly the same argument when HUR was on the verge of being taken out on the cheap, and the shares were a fraction of what they are right now. Exactly the same argument, and given the price then, it would have looked like this line of argument would have had even more weight. This argument was countered by many shareholders, who knew there was significant value here. Since then, the market has begun to understand that, and the price has gone up. Those who took a value based approach in assessing HUR's situation and went long back when the price was around 0.7 have done very well. You're also missing out the tax credits. The North sea is an area the majors continue to invest in. This ain't about to dissolve, shareholders fought back and are now on the path to unlocking value. They have a producing asset, the price of oil is much higher than it was months ago. There are still some unresolved issues but the market is significantly undervaluing HUR.
NGR1616, if this is indeed a dead duck, put your money where your mouth is and just go short, make a load of money, and regain whatever you did lose and some. No point sitting here day after day recycling the same old story. If with all your alleged experience, degrees, and expertise, you're not willing to go short at this stage, then no one cares about your "degrees" and who you speak to. You just sound bitter having lost money before, and spreading FUD targeted specifically to LTH is your way of "getting even". Folks on here would respect you far more if you had the courage of your convictions and just openly went short. You ain't going to do that, as deep down you know bonds get dealt with, and this thing reaches escape velocity, in part due to the high price of oil. If you did go short, you'd end up getting margin call after margin call, and rather than losing 100%, it'd be 3,4,500% +.
Way too low. The tide has turned, close to reaching escape velocity, 4p will be ancient history by early next year.