Member Info for Maxi19

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Interesting to see that in Arrival's administration the internally developed IP has a book value of £15m but is expected to sell for £50m.

Lol, I'm definitely at the denial stage.

More importantly NicName, how much do you think the assets will see for?

Probably the suspension of trading.

Haven't seen anything else.

Of course they could know something we don't. It's almost certainly "game over" in terms of the share being listed, only question is whether they can sell the assets for more than the debts. Statistically they're unlikely too but I remain hopeful.

Seek.help brother.

Are you bricking yourself that if you're slightly wrong with this you've missed a multibagger?

Saietta may be dead. Shareholders may still get a return.

Sharemeister, all the staff have been let go so I don't think this is coming out of admin.

Related to that, the mcap before admin is irrelevant to the question of whether there will be a shareholder return. It's relevant to the question of what gain people who bought in at that price would get, but the key question is whether the administrators can sell off the assets for more than the outstanding debts.

Like you, I struggle to see how the assets could be so worthless so as to not be greater than the relatively small debts. But there may be something we don't know. After all, each of the major shareholders dumped their holdings and admins hardly ever produce a shareholder return, so it doesn't look good on paper.

Could be a good sign, could be a bad sign.

If good it might mean there's a competitive auction process with bidders carrying out DD (which takes a while and is expensive so would show serious intent).

If bad it might mean they're struggling to find a buyer.

TRQS, there's a grain of truth in that. The administrators have to maximize returns for the creditors. So, say the debts were £5m (including administrator fees) and someone offered £5m for the lot and someone else offered £5.5m for 90%, with the 10% remaining being near worthless, then the administrators could probably accept the lower offer.

But if you're talking about material differences in value, say £5m and £10m, then I don't think your point applies.

Santiago, they said discussions with interested parties would continue following the administration. The lack of news will be a result of confidential negotiations with those parties. My guess is that there's a 50:50 chance we get some news before the end of the month. Failing that I would be surprised if the majority of the assets weren't sold during April. EY will have a timetable in mind and won't want to delay it unless necessary.

TRQS - if they put something up for auction and receive two bids of £1m and £100k and everything else being equal, are you suggesting they have no obligation to accept the £1m bid?

I wouldn't rely on that report too much.

There's a difference between the Face ID being under display and the selfie camera being under display. Since last year the UDC has been predicted to be released in 2027. The Face ID though is predicted for 2025 for non-standard models.

In other words, it's not clear if the Face ID is being conflated with the UDC. They made a prototype in November with Face ID under display. It seems unlikely they would delay it by a whole 2 years unless there was something seriously wrong with it. The UDC on the other hand will need a huge amount of work before being meeting Apple's standards.

I would say this though - it's quite possible that the administration will result in a higher consideration for the assets. The UK operations were hugely loss making and weren't expected to pare those losses over the next few years. The financial plan was for them to be effectively subsidised by Saietta VNA revenues.

With the UK operations shut down, what you have left is the IP and Saietta VNA stake. The latter is expected to be profitable from the next financial year. So really there is not anything which a buyer will have to fund or subsidise.

Entirely depends on what price someone is willing to pay for it. As much as the tech may be valued by the company at e.g. £20m, if someone is only willing to pay £200k then that's what will happen.

The administrators are obliged to obtain the highest price for the the assets, not to obtain a sale at what the company perceives to be the market value.

FlyingHigher, don't worry and you're right to be pessimistic as nearly all admins end with some creditors out of pocket and of course shareholders wiped out.

So statistically there's little to no chance here.

But on paper it seems like there might be, which is why I'm cautiously optimistic, but expecting the worst.

Are you being serious? You think the shareholders aren't entitled to the surplus? Who is entitled to it then? You realise companies can enter and then leave administration?

Basically FlyingHigher, you're assuming there's only one potential buyer. If there is, then as you say they will want to pay as little as possible.

But if there are two or more buyers, they will pay as much as they're willing to pay.

Also, we don't know what the terms of the JV agreements are. It's common in JV agreements for the minority partner to have a put option, in other words forcing the majority partner to buy its shares at fair market value. If the minority partner is insolvent this may be at a discount, typically 15-25%.

If such a mechanism exist in Saietta VNA then Saietta Plc will be entitled to fair market value or thereabouts for its 49% stake. What is the fair market value of that stake? If the forecasts are reliable and Saietta VNA will have £40m EBITDA in a few years then it's not going to be cheap.

We simply don't know.

FlyingHigher, the administrators have to find the highest bidder for the assets. They normally do this through an auction process.

If the highest bid is £10m and the outstanding debts are £5m the shareholders get a return. It's really not that complicated.

I should also have said that STMicro supply the Face ID sensor for iphones already

I've said before that the iphone 17 pro/plus models are a possible end product.

1) they're predicted to have Face ID under the display.

2) Jonathan Steckel at STM used to work at Apple

3) the timing fits for when Nanoco is supposed to be cash generative. Note that the cash generative expectation is for CY25 not FY25 - the iphone is released in September.

4) previously the cash generative prediction was for CY24. The iphone 16 Pro was rumoured to have UD Face ID but it got delayed a year. In other words, it would explain the reason why Nanoco's prediction also got delayed a year.