Member Info for Maxi19

Quite possible we don't get anything today but news on Monday.

Neil, ok so presumably you see the odds of an administration at 90% or more?

JP88 - I don't want to be accused of ramping but it could be higher if there are multiple bidders. You never know.

Neil you obsess over the risk without considering the reward. Last Friday the SP was 5p. Now it's 0.5p. The risk has heightened for sure but the reward on offer has also increased.

Dom-Bella, that paragraph is just lifted from other companies' RNSs declaring a formal sales process. Look at Made.com for example. I wouldn't read too much into it. An equity raise seems very unlikely as the dilution would be ridiculous. Better to do a straight buyout.

Last Friday's RNS wasn't that pessimistic:

- "may" need to plan for an administration

- already talking to a potential bidder with talks at a *relatively* early stage

- in a number of discussions around funding

- no mention that in the event of an admin any return to shareholders would be unlikely

- "hopeful" of a solvent solution.

Honestly, could have been much worse.

I reckon Amati sold out yesterday. Big volume and mostly sales given the drop.

Neil I actually think the guidance in the disclosure rules says effectively what I'm saying - price sensitive information should be released as soon as possible but otherwise it is preferable to release info before trading.

Neil, I agree that the intraday RNS last Friday wasn't great. But I think there was a sense of urgency because they wanted potential bidders to get involved asap and a Monday RNS (or even a post-trading RNS when people may have clocked off for the weekend) wouldn't have achieved that.

It's not good form to release really important RNSs or suspend trading intraday if it can be avoided. If you look at Eve Sleep and Made.com, their administration RNSs were released before trading. Amte power admin RNS was intraday but that was because the only lender they had told them it wouldn't extend furtner funds and they had no other options available.

So the fact we've seen no RNS is arguably an indication some kind of progress is being made. But I wouldn't read too much into it.

That article doesn't necessarily mean anything.

STMicro sensors, either the VD55G0 or the VD56G3 were used in those iphones. In December a next gen VD56G3 went into production according to STMicro's website. It may or may not use QDs and if it did it may or may not have been used in the AVP, in which case the teardown would probably have mistaken it for the previous gen or simply not cared enough about it to check.

Who knows really.

Even if there's an administration tomorrow Deano might still end up in the money. There are effectively two bites of the cherry here:

1. Takeover or fresh financing

2. Return from an administration

Obviously 2 is unlikely on the basis that not many administrations end up with a return to shareholders. That said, there's no debt finance here and IP that underpinned a £100m IPO a few years ago must be worth something.

Interesting that this Dean Stevens chap is a wealth manager. Slightly encouraging that someone classed as "sophisticated" would take a punt.

Yep NicName, I'm in with money I can afford to lose. I'll let you know my winnings if my horse comes in. If it doesn't you'll never hear from me again!

Yep there's also a valuation problem for the fund as they redeem at NAV if it's open-ended or update the market on the value of their portfolio.

How do you value a share that's not listed and in admin? If nothing, then exiting shareholders will be aggrieved if there turns out to be a return of value. If you do attribute value then entering shareholders will be aggrieved if it returns nothing.

Yep, sign me up for that award.

If this does go teats up then I'd be genuinely curious to understand why and use it as a learning experience. So much of investing is about being rational and not being emotional or biased. If I come across as a ramper then I apologise, but I'm being completely honest when I say that I don't think this will go into administration tomorrow. If I'm wrong then I'll hold my hands up and eat humble pie.

Even if the funds didn't sell anything (and the SP was at e.g. 2p) that doesn't change the likelihood or not of an administration. So if your view is that an admin is nailed on then I still wouldn't buy. But if you think there's a reasonable change of a takeover or new financing then it's provided a brilliant price opportunity.

Agreed HedgeHogarth, as I said earlier I also think it's quite likely a special sits lender would provide a few million in exchange for security over all the assets so an immediate administration looks unlikely imho.

If the share price is a result of funds being forced to exit by their rules (and that's a very big "if"), then what we're seeing here is a massive dislocation between the share price and the actual value. If those funds hadn't sold anything then the share price would be much higher.

On the other hand, if the funds sold because they think it's game over and that they won't get any return from holding on then it really is game over.

If you think about it in bets based on current SP:

If there's a takeover at 1p a share, the likelihood of an admin would need to be 66% for the bet to be balanced.

If the takeover's at 2p the likelihood would need to be >80%. If 3p then 90%. Etc etc.

Those look like good odds to me.

Neil777, yes it's quite possible that the language about the administration is responsible for most of the crash. They probably had to include it for legal reasons. They also said in the latest GM circular that if they couldn't raise the cash an administration was possible so it's consistent with that.

If you look at Amte power before it went into admin, its RNSs were far more negative, saying that an administration was looking likely and there wouldn't be a return of value to shareholders. This wasn't at that level. Whether you can read anything into that I don't know.