RE: When We Can Travel Again...25 Apr 2020 03:30
i'm pro cruises like a lot on here but short term there will be issues with royal caribbean and Norwegian needing cash.
royal caribbean got upgraded by 2 analysts hence why we rose with them but its probably a ruse for these analysts to get out of long positions.
Any equity needed by either firm and USA Carnival holders will bail out. It'll be just like shareholders in both of those companies bailed when Carnival needed cash.
Also short term we have to deal with unemployment rates which could continue to spiral out of control, especially over in the USA. Wages have been also cut across pretty much all executive management teams. This wont help cruise bookings.
Plus you only have to look at what top companies like Google are doing halving marketing costs and cutting costs where they can to know this recessionary crisis is going to get a lot worse.
We have also entered a credit crunch with banks having pulled cheap credit removing as many 0% credit cards, loans and mortgages as they can.
Risk over the past month that we will have a financial crisis has in my eyes increased to a 100% certainty.
Debt expansion is our economy, its imploding at the same time that banks are pulling debt, which is a deflationary act.
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Closer to home at Carnival, cancellations are rising with 55% of people demanding a refund than defer their cruise to a later date despite being offered high credits.
Cashwise Carnival are fine for now but increased cancellations (roughly $3bn paid back), bonds redeeming in October ($700m plus interest to find) and cash needed for future ships (roughly $4bn unless they defer/cancel) could yet lead to more cash required.
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