Member Info for mattwales

yes donek, the SP will get crushed till the overhang of sales clears.

Once its cleared SP should fly back up..

yes, the sales overhang on issuance could last a few weeks.

people are switching from covid 19 stocks to normal recovery stocks

I think the price will fall to 0.22-0.25 once placing shares are issued.

I think it'll be like Aston Martin personally they had 4:1 issue shares fell to below issue price.

A lot of people will see 50%+ profits from the placing and take them.

60% production so 45600 approx. @ $57 = $1003200 profit a day based on cash breakeven $35
30400 approx. @$5.3 = $161120 per day

1164320 x 365 = $424976800/1.25 = £339,981,440 profits per year based on current Brent price of $40.30.

P/E of 1.09

suspect people buying in anticipation of OPECs meeting 2moro lets hope they flood in this afternoon.

Tullow is a great example. 70k+ barrels of oil production 60% hedged at $57 the rest sold at spot, operating costs $35.

Value £346m ($432m) crazy valuation in terms of its profits at $40.

looking likely the cuts will be extended by OPEC etc.

It's time to look at mid tier oil companies like Tullow Oil who are bombed out but at these prices in profit.

it's time to invest in the mid tier oilers like premier oil, tullow oil, the latter better assets.

BP/Shell etc will bring you gains but the real winners will be the recovery of the mid tier oilers.

As oil stabilises at $40 and above the investment community will increasingly see less risk.

As they rush into oil shares its when we will breakout.

Guy you are a lot more knowledgeable than I am.

Are Tullow profitable at $22 a barrel based on 60% of production hedged at $57 and $5 a barrel based on 40% production based on operating costs of $35?

yes but remember they are starting to open up existing wells they arent drilling for new ones.

As such because of the nature of shale declining assets USA production will still fall as they need new wells to maintain production.

A similar situation for the Russians is Siberia where they also have to drill for new wells to maintain production.

I think it'll be a few months of stable rising prices before anyone risks CAPEX of new drills.

On a positive note Brent just went through $40.

oil stabilising at over $40 for a couple of months will draw in the long term investors.

I personally feel they should delay the next asset sale till oil overshoots the other way.

its ok if its being manipulated down you just buy more shares.

I added another £5100 today on that dip just now.

They cant manipulate it forever.

Goldman Sachs predicted an oil supply deficit next month.

The trouble is all the oil stored and they will definitely wait until part of this is clearing out before upping production.

Even when they do up production I believe it will be staged increases to ensure the oil price is heading up.

i'm not surprised according to reports Russia is moving closer to Saudi Arabia on extending cuts till the end of the year.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-opec-meeting/russia-has-no-objection-to-earlier-opec-meeting-sources-idUSKBN2370IS

jimjam, some professional investors short.

However, I see a dip after issuance as most of these investors in the placing do not have that opportunity.

I'd say within a week or two after issuance will be the time to buy because of all the overhang.

betrayed, its in none of their interests not to extend.

Russia/Saudi Arabia and everyone else needs higher oil prices.

trouble is all the placing shares issued.

Once they are some people will dump for the profit and I see this dragging the SP back to the level of the placing place, possibly lower.