Member Info for mattwales

Marketmakers will open up Oil higher Monday, I cant see it falling.

im not so sure the original plan was to let 2 million barrels flood the market.

even the laggards have agreed to production cuts an to extend them for any shortfall july to september

My prediction is Monday oil traders will pile in to take delivery of Oil August knowing storage will be reducing from this month.

If Brent isnt at $45 by close Monday i'll be seriously surprised.

investor, I think most people agree with you that with OPEC extending cuts and eventually releasing supply in stages it sets the Oil price up for a sustained recovery.

USA oil production is also falling up to 0.2 billion barrels a week while these kids stop drilling new shale fields so the unwind of oil storage should be high come July.

sorry please ignore my post I posted the wrong article....DOH

Gasoline demand is up 7.1% in a week as of Friday...…..but I cant find the twitter breaking news story

oops from last year.....it means we have a full recovery happening

https://www.oilandgas360.com/domestic-gasoline-demand-up-7-1-from-last-year/

USA oil production falling around 0.2 billion barrels per week
Huge oil deficit a coming

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Market-Heading-For-Months-Of-Deficit.html

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Drilling-Executive-Oil-Prices-Could-Hit-70-This-Fall.html

not being funny but Brent could go ballistic over the weekend, the open could be much higher.

at Brent $42.06 based on 76k barrels per day.

Tullow profits at these prices approx. £355 million. Insanely cheap P/E.

if Brent hits $45 next week you watch all the shorters panic to close.

Also professional investors knowing risk is off.

oil could hit $60 by August if we receive confirmation that 3-5 million barrels of oil are being released from storage tanks.

OPEC and co will also have staged increases of oil supply to ensure maximum prices.

over the next month they will be emptying storage tanks as fast as they filled them.

according to that article they are going to make the laggards extend production cuts over the following months.

Russia see a deficit of 3-5m barrels of oil next month.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/OPEC-Closes-In-On-Output-Cut-Extension.html

as soon as cuts confirmed extended everyone will just think demand is greater than supply in a month.

Brent will fly, shorters if they havent closed already will be panicked out next week.

Monday we could see 35p.

US shale will still struggle for production they are not drilling.

They will only look at producing existing shale resources to gain cash. They wont be drilling till WTI $50+

Is at these oil prices Tullow is not only profitable but can use the cash flow to help pay off Amortization of debt due October and every 6 months there after.

The way I see it by cutting overall costs from $45 to $35 it gives Tullow room to pay debt down a lot quicker as a result.

The risk factor of high debts will then evaporate, especially when the oil price goes back to a period of normal/higher oil prices.

For longer term shareholders who have seen dividends cut the only positives are the company doesn't just look likely to survive with ease but will thrive when prices return to normal.

I also believe that future dividends will be higher as a result of this period where they are using cash flow to pay off debt.

There is political will the pressure applied to Saudi Arabia from USA is high.

The Americans pulled troops and patriots and told Saudi Arabia do not screw with our oil industry we offer you military protection. Senators were threatening the Saudis with sanctions, pulling out all military, all political and economic support.

As of which the Saudis cut another 1 million barrels of oil.

The Saudi's will be very reluctant to pull any kind of stunts on US oil in future.

The above threats to the Saudis from the US political establishment did take place and this is why Saudi Arabia is openly advocating cuts to the end of the year.