Member Info for mattlilly

Its a reasonable supposition that someone must want this really bad...probably Jiangxi...?

Why?

In late October 2023, SC said:

"The Company is in discussions with a number of highly credible groups who are at different stages of their review with interest in Cascabel and/or SolGold's Ecuadorian exploration portfolio. There are over 20 active confidentiality agreements ("CAs") in place and over 5 groups have already completed site visits with a number of follow-up visits being scheduled. It is very clear through this review that Cascabel is recognized as a world-class asset of significance, with parties being very diligent in their review given the size and potential scale of the asset."

In PFI3 we were told that interest had crystalised and there were TEN registrered EOIs.

In 2023 he also said:

"there has been interest in the block of SolGold shares acquired indirectly through the Cornerstone transaction..."

And

"Most of our shareholders are long-term investors with only a small percentage actively trading.....Given our shareholder concentration impacting the illiquidity of our shares, an immaterial amount of shares traded has a relatively material impact on our share price. ..."

And therein lies the rub...

Since that date, Copper has gone from $3.57 to a high of $5.15 (up 44%) and gold from $1830 to a high of $2450 (up 34%)

The value of our metal in the ground has risen by $77 BILLION... at 1% thats 20p a share.

But our share price is virtually where it was at that time, some 19 months ago.

Why?

Despite the moaning and doom mongering, management has done nothing wrong and there has been no bad news.

The company has been massively steamlined with huge savings in cash burn.

The PFI has been materially improved, at assumed prices far lwer than now.

Interest by makors has been crystallised into impending significant funding and cash worries have been removed for the foreseeable future.

But in a maerket where nobody is selling and liquidity is poor, it has been easy for someone to hold the price down.

You cannot force predators to bid, but sooner or later this coiled spring will unwind..."fast and smart"...

Spoke too soon Novice...

Now...I aint as clever as some on here but...

It seems to me that if somebody wanted tp hold down the SP they would simply programme the Autobots to sell at6 the lowest bid and buy at the lowest offer...

Because after all MMs are in it to make money and why wouldn't hety be delighted tp buy in stock at the cheapest price possible...

Oops...QED?

This is gut wrenching...

We hit 10.18 and then the Autobots tear the ass out of it...

What are these, timed between 8.13 and 8.26?

The SP fell from 9.90 to 9.60 during this period...

Blatant fraud?

20-May-24 08:26:00 9.20 250,000 Unknown* 9.70 9.80 23.00k O

20-May-24 08:26:00 9.10 -250,000 Unknown* 9.70 9.80 -22.75k O

20-May-24 08:13:48 9.05 250,000 Unknown* 9.70 9.79 22.63k O

20-May-24 08:13:48 9.05 -150,000 Unknown* 9.70 9.79 -13.58k

For the benefit of those still worried about cash (Operational cashburn to 31 March $270k per month) , THIS is why we have taken out a temporary facility...

"The strong interest from potential financiers not only validates the Project's exceptional prospects but also strengthens our capability to achieve planned milestones."

It is important to note, however, that while the Financing discussions are advancing, the completion of a transaction remains subject to negotiation, and there is no guarantee of a finalized Financing transaction. The proposed Financing is expected to be subject to certain conditions, including the receipt of necessary permits and agreements..."

Public holiday in Canada yesterday...

Lets hope it augurs for today...

Awwww novice...can't blame you...its been a long haul...

But no sooner said.....

Mind you theres some PI buying which could take off when we get established in the 10s...

Keep believing matey...

What's with all these microscopic Off Book trades...?

At today's highs the metal in the ground was worth $220 BILLION...

Which at a modest 1% gives $2.2 billion or...£1.75 billion or...58p/share...

Https://seekingalpha.com/news/4108362-copper-surges-to-highest-ever-on-bets-that-shortages-will-worsen?mailingid=35437995&messageid=2900&serial=35437995.1358&utm_campaign=rta-stock-news&utm_content=link-1&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=35437995.1358

They're talking to at least two major parties...and with copper and gold at All Time Highs, the terms are improving day by day...

Auction UT 9.92...thats above resistance even though we dropped back so a 'significant' funding will see this SP fly...

That is utter rubbish Adie.

Banks do this all the time for a modest amount on a Facility. They know we could issue equoty to repay it...if we even need to.

Operational casburn for the 3 months ended 31 March was $817k; cash balance was $3.451 million; so at that rate of burn we may not need it.

In my view it was put in place to avoid a Going Concern qualification in the MD&A

We could always pledge the CGP shares if necessary, but, being a facility, we may not need to draw a cent before the funding deal is announced.

Garbage again David...

SOLG may have been a 'takeover prospect' according to 'City rumours' and I'm sure Nick et al would have sold for north of a quid...

However, even as recently as July 2022, Cuzubbo and Marshall were planning to take it to production...

But Cuzubbo was already on the way to bankrupting the company amd was sacked accordingly

However, since October 2022 SOLG has DEFINITELY been up for sale...

BBG...have you completely lost the plot...?

He is a NED passenger who is enthusiastically supportive...nothing more...

PLEASE NOTE THAT STACKHIGH AND REDKNIGHT HAVE NO CONNECTION WHATSOEVER

David. Don't you realise you have zero credibility.

You actually know nothing; clearly take no notice of well researched, carefully analysed facts and informed statements.

So if you really believe the negative tripe you post, why haven't you sold out completely rather than sit like a rabbit in the headlights of a car and watch your investment fall even further.

Then you'll go back where you came from and we won't have to read your tedious quotes anymore.

Its not my fault if you can't be bothered to read; don't comprehend; or simply disregard my fact based posts

BBG:

1 Please answer the question as to what my motive is?

2 Please show me with FACTS and analysis where my calculations are wrong

3 How do you equate these two statements in the same post:

"Current cash + full draw down on new facility will be lucky to get us beyond September. "

and

"in case there is a minor delay beyond mid june once cash has dried up. "

However I agree ...within 4 weeks...

Addickt...please show me with FACTS where my analysis is wrong.

And if, like BBG you think the cash burn is much higher than that

1 Why haven't we already run out of cash and

2 Why is it only a Loan FACILITY and not a straight Loan and

3 Why was it announced only 48 hours before the MD&A (which by the way was technically 2 hours 20 minutes after the deadline in Canada

There is a 'significant' funding deal coming...soon...

BBG...its a FACILITY...that gives the company total flexibility and they don't even need to draw a penny if a deal is announced in the next few weeks...

But with the funding deal in its final stages, the MD&A makes absolutely clear why it was needed. Cash down to $3.45 million at the end of March (although I've stated very clearly elsewhere why the monthly cash burn since then could be as little as $400k and up to $550k).

The 'Going Concern' statement makes it very clear why the company had to demonstrate they had sufficient funds going forward, because otherwise I'm certain the Report would have been qualified by a material risk of running out of cash.

So ask yourself why, given that they knew the MD&A/Financial Report would show only $3.45m at the end of March, they announced the Loan FACILITY...(not LOAN) only 48 hours before the MD&A, when they could have done it weeks before?

Because they expected to have had the Funding deal in place by then.

And why is it delayed? Because of competition between the would be Offtakers.

So until there is only one left, the deal will not be announced.

But wait till you see the effect on the SP when it is.

Because the deal (a significant proportion of the Capital Development cost of Cascabel) will surprise a market staring at a MCap of $330 million and...

It will demonstrate to any would be bidders that Cascabel is financeable.

And NONE of those bidders would want to take on that Offtake funding (unless like Jiangxi they were one of the prospective 'offtakers') because ALL of those prospective bidders will be able to finance Cascabel out of their cash resources without any need for borrowing or especially offtake funding.

Actually BBG I'm pretty teed off at you implying ulterior motives.

My only motive is for Solgold to be taken over, ideally for at least 60p.

And my only motive for doing so much analysis, going into detail and incorporating all that I know from informed sources is to state the facts or reasonable possible explanations to stop people worrying that:

We're running out of cash and/or going bust or

We're going to build Cascabel or

We're going to be sold for a knockdown price or

This could drag on for months

or

or

So pleae tell me what my motive is and demonstrate with FACTS what statements are baseless?

Addickt...by my calculations we don't NEED the Facility until September earliest, based on recent cash burn.

But I am certain and indeed messaged the company to point out that if the MD&A was published with a low cash figure without any funding news, the share price would fall at least to 8p because of worries that there would have to be an Equity issue.

So the $10 million Loan FACILITY (it may never need to be drawn at all) should have knocked those worries on the head.

So I believe the Facility was to stabilise the SP, which it pretty much has.

Meanwhile I know I am not alone in fretting about not having seen the funding package that we have been expecting for weeks.

So...putting it all together, I believe the reason for the delay is that the terms keep getting better...why?

Two main reasons:

1 Copper and Gold hitting new All Time highs of $5.02 and $2431 (cf $3.85 and $1700 in the PFS)

2 Competition for the deal. Remember irrespective of the gold, the Chinese are competing with the rest of the world for guaranteed copper supply in a market where stocks are minimal and there is a growing deficit forecast to be much higher by the time Cascabel is in full production

So...according to the PFS there were TEN serious Expressions of Interest for what we can safely assume was an offtake deal. These would include serious players like the Chinese and Trafigura, Glencore, Osisko, etc.

So how do you whittle that down to two? By increasing the terms until the others drop out.

Then you let the two 'big beasts' that are left fight it out.

Result? The deal takes longer and

The terms get very much better

And as I said, an Offtake deal is an agreement to buy a given number of tonnes of metal for a given number of years of production.

That was the Jiangxi deal that saved First Quantum from extinction...

Using simple maths you multiply number of years by amount of tonnage and then divide it into the capital value of the deal. This gives you the effective price per tonne of production.

You then gross that up for the entire production for the LOM...discount the total back to present day and it gives you an implicit minimum value for Cascabel...

But just imagine that you're interested in owning Cascabel (through SOLG). You see a prospective commitment to another party, taking lets say the first few years of production with e.g. a $500 million millstone round your neck .

So I think there are three main reasons for doing this funding deal:

1 It shows commitment to Noboa

2 It enables the market to put a minimum value on Cascabel

3 It triggers any prospective bidder that DOESN'T want an offtake to make a bid or walk away.

Finally, what do you think an agreed $500m offtake deal would do to the SP of a company with a $300m MCap...?