Member Info for mattlilly

It wasn't me that made the point about MCap...

But MY point is nothing to do with entry points...the massive rise in precious metals has had no effect whatsoever on SOLG except possibly to keep it higher than it might otherwise be...

MAG Silver has no earnings stream but I've more than doubled my money their...similarly JAY , ARCM, ADT1....

And by the way I'm still strongly committed to SOLG, its just a refraction of the disappointment that we are no further forward...

If you had bought SOLG at the top you're down 42%...

My main point is that the sharp rise in gold and silver prices that have transformed the financial value of this project have had worse than no effect on its perceived value...

The MCap was exactly £775.45m...its now £557.4m...

Nor do GGP and they're up over 1000% in the same period...

Its just a number, based more on the purchase value if the asset rather than the stream of metal...

I'm open to another number, it was for illustrative purposes but...

It gets Alpala to production with SOLG intact and is a 'poison pill' against a bid for SOLG as a whole...

The obvious favourite for aJV is BHP

And for a takeover is Barrick...

IMHO Newmont have their hands full with Havieron, but maintaining or increasing their stake makes them a possible partner for Porvenir, Blanca, Rio Amarillo...

Since late October 2018...

The copper price is up 7%...

Gold is up 69%...

Silver is up 100%...

SOLG is DOWN 36%...

Work that out...

As you know, my most likely scenario is that SOLG gets taken out by Barrick, at more than £1 a share...how much more depends on whether or how big an auction takes place...

But here's two alternatives, both involving a JV for Alpala...

Barrick or BHP propose a JV with SOLG for Alpala/Cascabel...

Barrick wanted to take over Newmont, but in the end settled for a JV...

So...Barrick/BHP approach SOLG with a proposal to acquire 50% of ENSA. They buy CGP's stake for £150m and commit to funding $1 billion of the development costs of Alpala in return for the 35% that takes them to 50%, plus they underwrite the additional $1.7 billion of debt that makes up the $2.7 billion total, but because of the value of their covenant, the debt is executed at a far cheaper price than SOLG would achieve and SOLG doesn't have to issue any more equity to fund Alpala.

Of course one cannot assume it would be straightforward for Barrick or BHP to acquire CGP, but a price twice their current SP (they closed last night at a one year high...), together with an implied threat by the major that "we'll bury you" if CGP decline to sell, should do the trick.

One immediate result would be that SOLG shares would soar, allowing them the choice of issuing sufficient equity to fund their exploration program for the other 13 prospects for the foreseeable future...

And...NM gets to see Alpala to production...

If Barrick gets CGP they also get c7% of SOLG; if BHP gets it they then have 20% of SOLG, but SOLG ends up with two or even three major mining companies as shareholders, each with the potential to partner them on any of the other 13 projects...

Just a thought and open to any debate around this...

But I can't see any other way for Nick to fulfil his dream and the fact that he's employed Citi for bid defence means he takes the threat of predatory takeover seriously...

Cheers

GDX (major miners index) up 43% since Jan 1

GDXJ (junior miners index) up 44%

GPM up 95%

SOLG down 3%...

QED

Opinion rather than fact...

The CURRENT Discount to NAV is POSITIVE 3%...SP 71p...NAV 69.1p

And against my original tip you would have closed UP 43% in 3 trading days...(20p vs 14p)

https://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/8735K_1-2020-4-24.pdf

Prelium
Lundin
First Majestic
Wheaton Precious Metals
Teck Resources
Fortuna silver
Silver Lake
Westgold
etc etc...

Do you not think I did the research before buying them...?
And in any case...his belittling of "Juniors" goes totally against the grain of where the major potential upside is...

"So, while all the visible names like Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX:TSX; GOLD:NYSE) and Newmont Corp. (NEM:NYSE) and Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM:TSX; AEM:NYSE) are being slowly acquired by an entirely new generation of investors, it is going to take a great deal of "catch-up" to bring these kiddies up to speed in terms of evaluating the high-cost marginal producer and the highly-leveraged junior developer—and therein lies the opportunity and the beauty of owning this lagging sector. It is the leverage to the gold price that creates ten-bagger and twenty-bagger potential."

https://www.streetwisereports.com/article/2020/07/26/the-explosive-upside-for-junior-gold-developers.html

So I'll leave it there because clearly I'm totally ignorant on these matters (Portfolio value up 93% since Jan 1 at £527k)...

As Jerry is an expert I'm sure he's done far better than that....

Apologies for being immodest, but I get p****d off with people who **** others off and dismiss them as knowing nothing...which is why I follow the Colonel and not TBTT...!

Let's end this matter now.

Just been reading CGP's OWN STATEMENTS in their Canadian Filed Material Change Statement, rejecting the SOLG bid...

As we know, one major plank is that SOLG shares are unmarketable, but they've misled their own shareholders, because enshrined in the offer is this statement:

"All-stock transaction of 11 ordinary shares of SolGold (or at the election of certain shareholders subject to tax in Canada, 11 exchangeable shares) for each Cornerstone"

Which means that Canadian investors don't have to take CDN shares...

Yes there is validity in the lack of liquidity in TSX quoted SOLG shares, but CGP managed to sell 5.8 million shares in SOLG (worth c£2 million) between October 2019 and March 2020, just to fund their Working Capital needs...

How is that looking after their shareholders interests?

If they say the offer for CGP is undervaluing the shares because it is undervaluing Cascabel, that means SOLG shares are undervalued also...

So why SELL so many SOLG shares rather than issue CGP shares...?

Frankly the CGP rebuttal is hilarious, verging on libellous...

Do they really think their shareholders are that dumb...?

Gold up 2% in the last 5 hours...copper up 5% in the last 3 trading days...SOLG down 1% in the latter period...

Leverage, what leverage...

Onwards and upwards...

No disrespect earthling, but without hundreds of trivial and irrelevant posts there would be a lot less posts...

I have nothing to offer by way of facts or opinions at the moment, because we are all waiting...

I came to SOLG through the helpful tip of somebody else, without that I would be £100k worse off...I think its called

"paying it forward..."

But message understood...you'd have to pay at least 10% more now anyhow as several people have taken up the suggestion...

Whatever...at least I posted something constructive zoros...and it looks like some people immediately took up the suggestion...

ho hum...I bought GPM at 19p and I'm still holding at c70p...more to come IMHO...

Certainly made me money while I wait here, only 30% up...

PS emailed eliza again...

I'm not remotely interested in ramping...

This is me sharing intelligence out of the goodness of my heart...

Do you know what GPM is...?

Its not a mining company, its a fund that is invested in all the biggest and best gold and silver min ing companies in the world...

Therefore exposure to gold at a time when Buffett has bought a big stake in Barrick Gold...

Feel free to disregard it, but if I had more cash I'd be buying even more..

Sorry for O/T folks...ends.

This is ridiculous...

If you buy GPM you pay 71p...

If you buy GPSS you pay 19p plus 46p in November...equals 65p...

Where else can you get a 8.5% discount to buy shares in the market...while being able to apply the capital elsewhere for 3 months?

Arbitrage rules OK...theoretically with a built in gain of over 30% already...

Article posted on ADVFN giving Livermore and others' position on CGP and a SOLG takeover...

https://www.mergermarket.com/info/solgold-go-it-alone-strategy-debated-ahead-october-showdown-–-shareholders-bankers

We all have them...the trouble with this news hiatus for the next six weeks is that all sorts of tripe is being posted...including some nonsense on ADVFN...

And that's my humble opinion...

Up 2.1/2 % since midday...at $1967...

Surely if NCM or BHP tried to buy us on the cheap, someone like Barrick would steam in with a higher offer...?