Member Info for mattlilly

As he's remaining as a NED you can assume he's on the Alpala Committee...but just one voice...

Here is a direct quote from the DGR website on Nick's 'retirement for personal reasons'...

"After his retirement as CEO, Mr Mather intends to remain on the Board as Non-Executive Director, and will continue to support SolGold’s ongoing exploration focus in Ecuador, independent financing and strategic corporate initiatives. During Mr Mather’s tenure, SolGold has been on a similar trajectory to several previous corporate successes of Mr Mather’s. In addition to the world class Alpala Project, SolGold has established a broad tenement portfolio in Ecuador potentially capable of delivering multiple world class copper and / or gold discoveries, as demonstrated by the initial drilling results from the Porvenir Project."

There are those two £50k sales again, but the only pushed the SP down temporarily...Bid still above where they were sold...

Meanwhile, copper and silver holding up well...industrial metals...

In general not helpful, but specifically should focus the majors towards SOLg's portfolio...

I think Nick actually said it in regard to the Regional Exploration program...definitely not the PFS...

"And there is a whole bunch of other prospects to be tested in SolGold’s “shock and ore” drilling approach to unlocking Ecuador’s copper riches."

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/nickel-demand-will-triple-on-back-of-energy-revolution-says-bhp-boss

Time for perspective and the long view...

The price is where it is primarily because of the errors of the last year or so...such that even quite good news on Regional Exploration was received its a large yawn...

As to today's price action...apart from weak and impatient holders being panicked out, with no strong buying interest...not to mention the (manipulator)/seller with the steady 50k sells....

We are lower again because the Gold price just fell to $1788...(we have 'Gold' in our name...)

And copper fell as well, somewhat bizarrely...

This is all of the back of a dollar and US markets bounce triggered by a sharp fall in the Jobless Claims...

That is bad news for gold (stronger economy) in the short term but in the medium term it means higher negative real interest rates, which is good for gold, let alone the money printing machine when a Stimulus Bill gets passed...

But it should be GOOD for copper...stronger economy...Biden's Green recovery...global commodity deficits...

Time for patience...gold/silver/copper prices will settle...

The SOLG SP is a sitting duck ATMO for any would be predator to massage down with no material news to push it up...

We need either:

A JV announcement or...

A Takeover bid or...

A positively revised PFS or...

The announcement by the Board of a 'strategic review' of options going forward...

Whichever way you look at it, SOLG is massively oversold IMO and any sudden news will make the SP spike...

Otherwise expect the drift towards 25p to continue...

You're very honest...you deserve some luck...maybe you'll bring some here...

Well done Steve...even if you bought the rest today you've still 'made' £18,000 on the turnaround...

Way to go mate...

The FNV deal is Alpala specific...

You do realise that FNV has a MCap of $24 bBillion and the Alpala deal is over the life of the mine (last seen at 55 years...)

Here is how it was recorded in the FNV Q3 Quarterly Report:

"Alpala Royalty Interest: On September 11, 2020, the Company completed its previously announced transaction to acquire a
1% NSR with reference to all minerals produced from the Alpala copper-gold-silver project in northern Ecuador for $100.0 million."

Note its "all minerals produced from the Alpala copper-gold-silver project" not just gold...

I still believe that Nick primarily did the deal to substantiate his hyper valuation of Alpala (and thereby SOLG) and to substantiate his statements about the potential scale of royalty funding...

Wheaton is another major player in this market...MCap $18Bn...

There you go again Quady...

Even though you insist it is opinions, you keep making definitive statements...

"the payback period will not increase..."

You missed the words "I think" or 'in my opinion"...

It wasn't me that said the payback period would increase as a result of the mine redesign...

No but there is undeniable interest from severa major players here...I was just speculating what it would take to take them out of the game...

It would also massively enhance China's strategic position in Ecuador...

If you are interested in researching that, I've juts read an excellent book ""The New Silk Roads" in which the author lays out Chinese expansionist policies and how they are 'armlocktng' governments and taking strategic market stakes across the world...

In 5 years time China will be the world's most powerful economy...look what they've already done in Africa...

Thats an opinion BBG...

I don't disagree with the possibility of an auction...certainly if anybody is stupid enough to 'lowball' at, say 42p, one would undoubtedly ensue...

But reflect on my Valuestone post below...

It can't be a major shareholder because there would be ready buyers in Valuestone, BHP and NCM for starters...

Unless it is Valuestone acting on behalf of their 'Sponsor'...after all they bought enough to stay below the 3% line and could easily have been massaging their holding up and down without having to declare it...

If so...expect a 100p+ bid from Jiangxi Copper Corporation, working in partnership with Valuestone's other Sponsor...

CCB International Asset Management Ltd

- Subsidiary of China Construction Bank with net asset over RMB 1 trillion.

- Business includes comprehensive investment services that offers a full range of products and services including sponsoring and underwriting, financial advisory, corporate mergers andacquisitions and restructuring, additional issuance and placement of shares and refinancing for listed companies, direct investment, asset management, securities brokerage, market research, investment consultancy, etc.

- Rich experience in international capital markets.

- Fund Support: providing structural financing support and investment banking services.

"we will get far better terms if BHP or NCM..."

What I clearly meant was that if either of them approach us for a JV the financing terms will be far more attractive...raised from their own resources or backed by their far bigger lines of credit and far better Credit Rating...

That way Alpala would be funded by a mix of a direct equity stake (maybe even up to 75% as with Havieron) and debt...

BBG I didn't say anything about going direct to BHP or NCM...

1 I believe they will have been quietly spoken to after the AGM to discover their rationale for voting against Nick

2 Let them come to us...but there is equally no harm in asking them what their intentions are with their 13% plus holdings...

NCM have previously stated that they would keep their shares as a strategic holding after they withdrew their Director...

There can be no doubt after their reaction to the FNV deal and being excluded from equity that they would each like more equity...especially at these prices...

And actually the inept way things have been managed in the last few months means that SOLG has played right into their hands...but 'better the devil you know...'

I think we all need to understand that Nick is no longer calling the shots...

He is 'caretaker manager' until 31 March...the AGM vote and his many missteps so far mean that the Independent Directors control the company to all intents and purposes...

And as such they completely understand the requirement to act in ALL the shareholders interests...

That would have meant consulting BHP, NCM, CGP and Blackrock after the AGM vote...doing a through strategic review of all the options (informed by Citi, who are in the best position to do so)...sounding out interest for a JV/JVs...getting Cit to substantiate whether there is real substance behind the 'hottest takeover story in the City" last August...having a wash-up Board meeting...making a holding comment in the MD&A and then wait and see what materialises...

ATMO the most likely source of a 'knockout' bid would be Chinese suitors...they are gamblers and SOLG would give them a massive strategic position in Ecuador, copper, together with attractive gold and silver flows, at time when China is already building up its strategic copper reserves because of the Green global recovery, not only for their own uses but also to stymie the West (especially the US)...they have already shown their ruthlessness with what they have done with Australia...

But if the Chinese are content for the time being with Alpala, I still think Barrick is the most likely bidder for the rest...they have the muscle and they have been very quiet...

AIMO as usual...

Hi Quady, I'm not going to jump all over you, because I think constructive debate is better so, taking your points one by one...

(And this is two sets of opinion of course...)

Its already been trailed by the Company (i.e. Nick) that the payback period will be extended by the mine redesign...

I agree it will be largely debt funded...streaming deals like FNV are debt funding by nature...

However, I am convinced there will be a Convertible element if bankers are involved at all...that way they have equity to fall back on if things don't work out...see how may times companies opt for Convertible funding rather than straight equity...

$6 billion seems far too much to hope for on the PFS, especially because the Alpala Committee will go through it with a fine tooth comb and I believe has finally learned to underpromise...

Don't count on better terms from FNV, but Wheaton and Trafigura are other possible players...the most likely major streaming deals would come from the Chinese...but then why not bid for the company...?

Finally, I believe it was Nick and/or Ingo who said dilution would be minimal...

We are not...and never will be...a major miner...and therefore will have to take what's on offer...as I said we will get far better terms if BHP or NCM are involved and that seems to me to be the dream scenario whereby we can 'have our cake and eat it'...

(Which Boris failed to achieve)

PS as some have said...the listing of holdings in the subsidiary companies was a major departure...I still believe in the possibility of IPOing at least one of these...the most likely right now would be Green Rock Resources...and that is the strategy that Nick used to build up DGR...have a look at their website some time...

AIMO as usual...

Very tight dealing spread...24.3/24.7...but will this be the bottom...

Still big sells going on this morning at below the Quote...

If its not being manipulated we have some late panickers...

As Mr Dow said...when everybody's jumping off the building, that's the time to buy...

But have we had capitulation yet...or is it death by a thousand cuts for thousands of small investors waiting for the bounce...

If you guys have got a moment, have a look at what the JAY SP has done...you can track it by reading the LSE comments for Monday...big buyer at 14.5p...share price pushed down steadily to 8.76 before a 20% bounce because MMs short...

Could 27.4 here be our 8.76...?

30% for a compulsory bid...

90% shareholders have to accept...

50.1% to block a takeover...

You may not want a "fully funded solution" for Alpala Quady as it will almost certainly contain an equity element, probably by way of Convertibles...

Remember, bankers always expect 'skin in the game' from the shareholders...what we've spent so far doesn't count...

Alpala will be far more bankable and earlier to deliver if BHP or NCM are involved...