Member Info for mattlilly

Remember Allianz increased their holding to over 5% buying c1.5 million shares...and...

Jesus opened his account, buying £150k worth at 226p after Alberto had previously bought 280,000 at 310p...

I repeat...this will be a £10 share within 5 years...and could well be £5 within the next 12 months...

Meanwhile, copper is pushing hard on 2 month resistance at $3.74...

Sizeable bargains at 8.11 and 8.16 at 219p plus were both buys...I know because one of them was mine...

The 'resignations' were nothing to do with the $4.5 million...

Good reasoning rcgl....so if BHP/NCM didn't want the cashbox, why didn't SOLG do a straight rights issue....?

Sorry Lunch...in my haste I have strung two things together. I didn't intend to imply the royalty deal was a one off although it is my belief they couldn't repeat it until the final funding package and I think this is where Boliden come in...

For anyone who is till confused, this is the section from the cashbox RNS:

"The Placing structure has been chosen because of its flexibility, reduced timeframe to completion and to minimise the price risk to participants. As a result of the withdrawal of the standard disapplication of pre-emption resolutions following limited shareholder support for the same at the Company's AGM in 2020, the directors of the Company consider the use of a cashbox structure to be in the best interests of the Company and its shareholders as a whole, particularly when combined with the Retail Offer which allows smaller shareholders to participate in the Placing. The Directors have reached this decision in this particular circumstance and after consulting with and taking into account the views or concerns of certain shareholders and receiving external advice. The Company plans to adhere to the Pre-Emption Group Statement of Principles (the "Principles") in respect of the combined size of the Placing and the Retail Offer, limiting the issuance to a maximum of 10% of the Company's existing issued share capital (5% unrestricted + 5% related to specified capital investments). In addition, the Company has taken into account certain other provisions of the Principles in implementing the Placing, in particular as regards prior consultation with shareholders, that the Placing is being undertaken on a soft pre-emptive basis and that the Company's management will be involved in the allocation process. As noted above, the Company has also given consideration to the effect of the Placing on retail shareholders and will enable them to take part in the issuance of new shares by way of the Retail Offer. The use of this financing structure is intended as a one-off."

Not quite right Fort...just bought 100k for the Mrs at 21.1132p...

Funds in reserve in case of a rights issue...

If it drops below 20p thats the lowest its been since COVID in April 2020...

Hi stocky. Well written.

I have said all along that a final price could be £1/2, mainly to satisfy NM and based on things he's implied in the past.

BHP got a bloody nose with Noront and has been publicly called out by the media for not buying OZ as low as $5 in the recent past.

Their M&A team and CEO need a public win...and soon...to placate what must by now be a frustrated Board of Directors..

Biswas is obviously fed up and he stated in 2021 that NCM would now hold their SOLG shares as a strategic investment. He almost certainly doesn't want to put any more cash in unless there is an early resolution, so...

NCM might accept 75p from BHP for their stake; CGP and DGR need a deal; Blackrock have stuck steadfastly to 5%; Norge and Berry Street are in it for a quick buck, so 75p might produce a done deal...

The question then is whether the Board would accept this. It would be hard to justify not accepting a bid almost 250% above the current share price and especially considering they seem to be out of funding options righty now without it impacting the SP...producing an even lower starting point for a bid...

Like you stocky I'm open to thoughts...

That makes sense Fort but will it then trigger a bid...?

Orthern, I completely agree...

If we assume that Ingo and Ayten are bound by NDAs, then the media is getting this information from somewhere else and, given that AFR is Australia based, you would have to further assume it is someone in Oz, part of the company or with a communication line to someone in the company.

Because despite Darryl saying "we tested the market" and from all the things I've pieced to gather on here and on other parts of social media and boards, the following seems to be most likely:

Barrenjoey approached Solgold with a cashbox deal involving one or more new investors.

BHP and Newcrest got wind and found a way to knock that on the head. It could have been something as simple as threatening to sell some shares in the market...it wouldn't take many to push the price through 20p support...

So the Board, in defiance of bHP and NCM proposed a royalty deal, possibly with Boliden or even Jiangxi Copper...or a further tranche from FN...

Again BHP/NCM made their feelings clear and as Biswas rightly poits out the previous deal was supposed to be a 'one off'.

My guess is that IH and AS would then have proposed a rights issue to appease BHP and NCM but the 'faction' on the Board disagreed leaving an impasse and with IH and AS having nowhere to go except out...

If all that is true, and it is just hunch, it leaves SOLG either needing to do a discounted rights issue, struggle on or call BHP/NCM's bluff...

What a mess...it is simply not very clever to have one of their major shareholders calling them out in public yet again!

Lot of green stripes...the moron has been removed, so let me guess who it is and what his favourite subject is...?

Does he understand the filter button...?

Aha...Slug is back...

Anyhow...Quady obviously thinks he can win sympathy by posting rot about me in the blind belief that I don't know what he is saying because he's filtered...

So...to disabuse you Quady...I have friends on here (unlike you...ouch...sorry Quady mate, that was 'harsh but fair')..

To be crystal clear:

The detailed stuff that I have just posted from the LatAm Report is VERBATIM (is that a word you understand Quady mate...?)

I have offered no opinion.

However, my position could not be more clear from my snippet on Valuestone...so let me put it in Caps to make it easy for you, Quady my old mucker...

CASCABEL WILL NOT BE TAKEN TO PRODUCTION BY SOLGOLD

And for those that take the time and tolerable to read my posts (thank you by the way)...my OPINION is that Solgold will be bid for "by Christmas at the latest."

So I'm really genuinely sorry Quady m y long time buddy, but there will be no apology...

You'll get over it...bye for now...

This bit is particularly interesting for a couple of reasons...

Putting together a bankable feasibility study by the end of 2023 is entirely in our hands, so we know the market will judge us on our ability to deliver that. “Our number one priority is Cascabel and the second is Porvenir”, says Cuzzubbo. “Cascabel will generate $1.3billion of free cashflow per annum with copper at a conservative price of $3.60 per lb, so it can definitely berth a multi-asset operation. We would like Porvenir to be open cut, so it could be up and running earlier than Cascabel and get cash flowing.”

And...

“We will run out of copper in the second half of the decade”, says Darryl Cuz- zubbo, CEO of SolGold, a London-list- ed junior that is developing Cascabel, one of the world’s largest new copper projects. “Wood Mackenzie estimates more than a five million tonne shortfall in mined copper supply by 2030. To give you some idea that would require building at least five more operations like Escondida – the world’s largest copper mine – by the end of the dec- ade. We haven’t even found five mines like that, never mind built them.”

Governments and companies have made lots of bold carbon reduction commitments in recent years. The trou- ble is that these pledges haven’t been backed up by concrete steps to increase metals supply. “Lots of countries have made commitments to become net carbon zero, which they can’t do without having a reliable source of copper”, says Cuzzubbo. “Events in recent years have demonstrated the importance of having secure supply chains, which will place even more of a premium on copper. I actually think that Wood Mac- kenzie’s estimate is conservative. If you look at climate change the anxiety and political pressure to complete the en- ergy transition will increase with every extreme climate event. When you look at how rapidly attitudes have changed over the last twenty years, you can im- agine how it will be by 2030.”

There's also an interesting article on financing these major projects...here is the link to the 3rd Qtr issue of LatAm Investor..

https://latam-investor.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/LatAm-INVESTOR-Q3-2022.pdf

But lets let Wood McKenzie have the final say...

"According to Wood Mackenzie, annual capex on mining projects for energy transition metals peaked at $120billion in 2012 and is currently less than half of that. Over the next decade investment in new future-facing commodities will have to consistently exceed that $120billion figure if the mining industry is to provide the metals needed for the energy transition. The range of innova- tive mining finance solutions discussed in this article, will help that happen. They also provide new ways for inves- tors to gain exposure to the coming clean metal super-cycle."

And...

New projects
Retroactively cleaning up existing mega mines is vital to reducing min- ing’s GHG emissions. However, given the world will need to rapidly increase copper production, any new mines also have to be low emitters. Darryl Cuz- zubbo, CEO of SolGold, a London-list- ed junior that is developing Cascabel, one of the world’s largest new copper projects, believes that new jurisdictions like Ecuador have an advantage in this new era of low-carbon mining.
“Ecuador can be a leader in sustaina- ble mining but it won’t be easy. There are challenges in the country. But I al- ways think back two decades, to when BHP Billiton built one of the world’s most technically-advanced aluminium smelters in war-torn Mozambique. The country had just emerged from years of civil war and had practically none of the relevant skill sets. But Billiton, as it was known back then, worked with the locals to create this world-class opera- tion. Indeed, sometimes having a fresh jurisdiction, with none of the bad prac- tices of older mining, can be an advan- tage.”
It’s not just new jurisdictions that have the advantage. Mining projects being designed now, tend to have a much lower carbon footprint than projects 20 years ago. “We believe we can make Cascabel the lowest carbon intensity copper mine ever built”, says Cuzzub- bo. “It will be connected to hydro pow- er, while the concentrate will be sent by pipeline downhill. The water will be self-contained to avoid contamina- tion. We will have a heavy bias towards electric vehicles underground, which will further reduce emissions. These facts will help us bring NGOs onboard. Indeed, it already helps that we have a great example of responsible mining in Ecuador with Lundin Gold.”
Large new projects, like Cascabel, that can deliver globally-significant amounts of low-carbon copper are needed to fight climate change. The trouble is that in the last ten years, community protests and unclear govern- ment rules have made it harder to build new mines across the world. Meanwhile falling copper grades, mean operations are likely to use more energy per lb of copper produced.

Cascabel – Key Milestones

We look at the timeframes for Ecuador’s most-important copper project...

“In the medium term there are three “We would be doing all of this in par- ble feasibility study by the end of 2023
or four projects that will probably be developed”, says Valdivieso. “La Plata, Wartintza, Cangrejos and El Domo all look like they will be built in the next few years.” But for Ecuador to truly play a role in the global energy transition, and for mining to create the type of long-last- ing wealth that the country’s other booms failed to do, massive projects like Cascabel need to be developed.
“Cascabel is a tier one project based on deliverable assumptions”, says Cuzzub- bo. “A big advance was the recent pub- lication of the pre-feasibility study. That allows us to move into the next phase of the definitive feasibility study, which will allow us to get funding for the $2.7bil- lion of start-up capital.”
SolGold expect to have a bankable fea- sibility study for Cascabel by the end of 2023, says Cuzzubbo. “At a stretch we aim for environmental approvals by the end of 2024 – of course that timeframe is determined more by public consultation and the approval process than by us. If we meet those goals then we would start construction by early 2025 and start pro- ducing by late 2028.

“We would be doing all of this in parallel, so we will be looking for funding and getting the engineering work in the background. Then as soon as we have the permits, we are ready to pull the trig- ger on funding and construction. We will start early works, such as the mine shaft and decline, by the end of 2023. That work has two advantages: it will allow
us to access the ore body, so that we can understand it better and de-risk the project; it also takes 12 months off the
critical path. Putting together a bankable feasibility study by the end of 2023 is entirely in our hands, so we know the market will judge us on our ability to deliver that. “Our number one priority is Cascabel and the second is Porvenir”, says Cuzzubbo. “Cascabel will generate $1.3billion of free cashflow per annum with copper at a conservative price of $3.60 per lb, so it can definitely berth a multi-asset operation. We would like Porvenir to be open cut, so it could be up and running earlier than Cascabel and get cash flowing.”

Ecuador’s most important copper pro- ject, Cascabel, is being developed by SolGold (LON: SOLG). “We have 76 concessions, more than anyone else in Ecuador”, says SolGold CEO, Darryl Cuzzubbo. “That’s because we saw the opportunity ten years ago, before the rest of the industry. We see Ecuador as the next copper frontier. Our number one priority is Cascabel and the sec- ond is Porvenir. We opened up a num- ber of concessions to joint venture and
are currently negotiating with majors with a view to them buying into these projects. We want to grow SolGold on a probabilistic net present value basis. So that will allow other organisations to buy into our concessions and meet the concession commitments.
“Clearly, we can’t complete all 76 con- cessions on our own so we are going through a prioritisation process, with a sombre view on our capability and where we need to focus. We know that we can grow our company more quick- ly by bringing in select JV partners.”

And...

Ecuador needs companies from every part of the mining value chain to pro- duce a project pipeline and turn them into mines. For investors it provides a wide range of ways to play the story.
Investors “need to distinguish between larger mining companies and juniors”, says Alain Bureau, the CEO of Atico Mining, which is developing La Plata, a medium-sized copper-gold deposit that is at the forefront of the second generation of Ecuadorian mines. “With a major, investors are normally looking for long-term returns. In those com- panies, investors can ride out a few bumps because they have faith the company’s assets will deliver returns over the medium to long-term. When people invest in a junior company it’s because they want to be there when the share price pops. Investors in jun- iors are more conscious about timing because they know it’s about getting into a company just before it develops a project. If they time it right, the share price can multiply by ten times. When you invest in a junior you look at three things: the management track record, the project’s potential and the jurisdic-
tion.”

Ans...

Meanwhile in case you missed it, in the latest issue of Latam Investor:

"“Once we accept that we need much more copper, the next question is: where will it come from?”, says Dar- ryl Cuzzubbo, CEO of SolGold (LON: SOLG) a London-listed junior that is developing Ecuador’s largest copper project, Cascabel. “Ecuador is the most plausible option. It sits on the Ande- an copper belt, with similar geology to Chile and Peru and it doesn’t make sense that copper and gold stops at the border. Twenty or 30 years from now Ecuador will have mines of a similar scale and intensity that we see in Peru and Chile today. Those two countries supply more than 40% of the world’s copper today, so you can see what a key role Ecuador will play in the energy transition. Once you accept that, then you look at individual companies. Sol-
Gold has the most concessions in the country and the most advanced mega project. So, we are part of the global
The regional political situation makes Ecuador look very positive by comparison but it needs to seize on that timing and create investable projects
Rafael Valdivieso, Partner at Robalino Law
copper supply story.”
SolGold was an early mover in Ecuador but since then a string of juniors and majors have followed suit. One major that has set up shop in the country is Australia’s Han**** Prospecting, one of the largest private miners in the world. Carlos de Miguel III, the CEO of Han****’s fully-owned Ecuadorian subsidiary, Hanrine Exploration, ex- plains why the firm believes in Ecua- dor. “I had seen the potential of Ecua- dorian mining back in 2015, when the government first started talking about opening up the mining registry for auc- tions. We decided to conduct a country study, so that we would be ready for the auctions in 2017. We went as high as 4,400 metres and as low as 120 metres
underground, looking at a number of projects. Many of them were too small for us, as Han**** is looking for tier 1 copper projects with a high-grade and 35 years of mine life, but those small projects gave us important geological information. We brought over a well- known geologist from Australia and completed a two-year due diligence in the country. In Australia, Han**** pro- duces 85 million tonnes of iron ore a year but here our focus will be copper.”

And...

There must be at least one other outside interested party, the most obvious being...Jiangxi...

"Valuestone Global Resources Fund I has been established by Jiangxi Copper Corporation (China’s largest copper producer)"

Valuestone's sole investment advisor is Dickson Hall, Toronto based. He is obviously very well engaged on Ecuador because for example he recently 'liked' a photograph of Adventus' CEO Christian Kargl-Simard meeting President Lasso...

Here is more on Adventus...

https://adventusmining.com/news/122593

So...given Dickson's Toronto base (the mining epicentre of the globe) and his intimate relationship with Valuestone (aka Jingxi) who he will have advised to buy a stake in Solgold, it is a racing certainty that Jiangxi are in the picture somewhere and indeed to my mind would be a likely bidder for SOLG...

The question is, would they make the first bid or would they wait back with a counter...there is no doubt whatsoever that China's largest copper producer would be very interested in Solgold...

Valuestone is c0-owned by China Construction Bank Corporation:

"CCB International is a financial and investment services company owned by China Construction Bank Corporation. The core business of its subsidiaries comprises three main areas: pre-IPO, IPO and post-IPO. These are the main elements of a comprehensive financial and investment services value chain that offers a full range of products and services including sponsoring and underwriting, financial advisory, corporate mergers and acquisitions, restructuring, additional issuance and placement of shares, refinancing for listed companies, direct investment, asset management, securities brokerage, market research, investment consultancy, futures and commodities business."

https://www.mining-journal.com/gold-and-silver-news/news/1393110/newcrest’s-biswas-bats-off-solgold-sale-rumours

https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/newcrest-rules-out-solgold-sale-20201111-p56dli

https://www.miningnews.net/feasibility/news/1404549/newcrest-backing-solgold-strategy