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Posted a message back in Sept 27th and at that time stated there would be no news from AR due to him buying shares, it effectively gags him from saying anything and helps to avoid the company posting anything significant for a couple of months, that happened, check how many RNS’s were released. I suggested at the time that without significant news this would continue to drop and even suggested sub 1p per share by Nov, it's heading that way, if not this week, next.
But 3 pri cks, namely ForFXsake, Taz123 and Soupdragon78 quickly derided the points I made at that time and went on to predict their own version of hokum that they seem to post continually for a 1p AIM company ??
I didn’t see the share raise as having enough cash in the bank as I reasoned it would’ve been counterproductive to do a share raise without having significant news to offset. Well that came out of left field but it has been counter productive and the share price has now dropped and it will remain to be seen how effective this move is to raise capital as this point in time.
Without significant news of a deal this is headed to sub 1p and only news of a deal will recover this share price and that’s the reality of the position of this company.
Been in this share a while now and read all the various posts and posters and have been watching the trading pattern that seems to prevail. It looks very much like a concerted effort to drive the share price down but using small trades and accepting low offers. The other thing that I read was the the MD AR purchased 4750 of shares. This would mean that there can be no significant information released for approx 2 months otherwise it would constitute insider trading if anything significant happened within the company to affect the share price to his benefit. This being the case the earliest that any new info of significant worth can be released would be Mid Nov. That being the case this will only continue to slowly drop down. Given the potential for these drugs, and it is only potential, as there is no information to say yes or no to it assist the share price to drop. I can only see this heading to around 1 - 1.1p, dare I say even sub 1p before Mid Nov. After that then who knows as it will depend on what news flows at that point in time and if it's positive or negative in relation to NFX.
Intrestking - That's strange as that information came from their Commercial Director during that interview and the other information came from BPC's own RNS dated 5th Nov 2019.
Do you choose to read what you want to see or actually read what's there ? Interesting.....
No where in any RNS is there a mention of $27m in the bank.
Mr Potter may have "said" this but the company, BPC didn't release an official RNS to state this.
There is a very big difference between what's said and what's in an RNS.
My own feeling, you've invested in this share for 11 years..... why would you do that ? on hope !!??
So how's your ROI doing after 11 years ?
Possibly your grandmother should have taught you to suck eggs instead of sitting on an investment for 11 years....
Interestking - Watch Audibles post, 3.10 in... $11.5m raised from Share issue.... from RNS dated 5th Nov, Total monies from Open Offer, Placing and CLN is approx $24.6m
In the same RNS, BPC cost the well at approx $20 - $25m so I stick with original post, this is a very very tight budget to drill a subsea well given the planned sea depth and well depth. No wiggle room if it hits any speed bumps.
Please Remember - Read what is there, not what you want to read, listen to what's said, not what you want to hear.
CLN Confirmation is all I ask for. When confirmed then I'll have more confidence of a drill going ahead.
Even so, $11.4m raised from the share issue and $10.5m from the CLN ( when its signed off) gives approx $22m.
For a subsea well in 1000ft of water to a target depth of 14,400ft. That's a very tight budget to achieve that with no hiccups. $30m would be a safer amount of cash in the bank to ensure it's completed successfully and without another dilution.
For reference, read up on FOGL when they drilled the southern well in the Falklands, it broke them.. Read up on Sound and the misinformation given by supposedly respected Directors. In no way do I even view this BOD in the same light but always remember - Money has no conscience or emotion, creating wealth requires the same values.
HeidHoncho - I'm guessing by your post that you work either offshore or within the industry.
The Drilling Company that will supply the rig for the drill will supply the BOP, Marine Riser sections.
BPC will need to supply all the Well Consumables, Casing, Plugs, Cement, Mud etc.
What always got me was that the part that the 30" Casing goes through is called the Temporary Guide Base yet it will be permanently fixed to the seabed. The 2nd part of this is called the Permanent Guide Base and that's retrievable.... Go figure that one out...
The US developed all of this stuff ( Camerons, think Schlum bought them out) and named it so that likely explains the terminology. Worked on a 15k stack and they are very big, think there are now 20k and even a 25k stacks available.
Not sure how they overcame the weight to pressure issue but think there's 2 x 25k stacks currently in use.
I do hope that this drill goes ahead given the length of time it's taken to get to this stage, especially for all the LTH. Everything seems to be lining up for this to happen but always take anything companies post with a degree of caution. Timescales slip, agreements change etc. Another thing to consider is if this prospective start date keeps slipping, keep in mind the Hurricane Season in the Caribbean, 1st June to 30th Nov is roughly the season, as this will most definitely affect any drilling programme inc the start date.
Audible - These are long lead critical path items and used frequently in sub sea drilling activity.
This formed part of the pre-requisite conditions for the CLN. To have these on order.
Having these on order is great but these items are common in the offshore drilling industry and therefore can be re-sold, albeit with a potential loss, if the Drill cannot, for whatever reason, go ahead, so don't read too much into that happening.
These items are classed as well consumables in an offshore well and this was likely purchased using the funds that were raised from the placing earlier. So yes it's good that these have been / are in the process of being purchased but this in itself is not groundbreaking.
For myself, the main focus is the CLN to allow the well to go ahead as this forms the a large part of the finance required to fully fund the well. Any RNS that pertains to that is what you really want to see and read.
It seem the focus / obsession, by most on this board, for FI is, for the most part, wishful thinking which something you need to be careful when investing in any share, more so when it's an AIM share.
As previously stated, if this is a medium to small operator then would BPC want to be in this with a company that would need to scour the money markets to get extra capital on a successful well to pay for further wells to prove the find.
Bonum - In response to your post I think you need to take your rose tinted glasses back to Specsavers.
"Macondo incident, with the various Govt decrees that have been enacted since" Can you please be specific as to these "decrees" I'd be very interested to see what legislation changes the Bahamian government has introduced pre & post Macondo.
"We're also now fully funded to go alone " This one I thought was a belter, how so ? The CLN hasnt been fully agreed as they asked for variations on a previous RNS and as yet, there's been no further information released to advise otherwise, unless of course your party to something that hasn't been released.
"The fact is we're still talking to them and despite being fully funded and ready to go, they're mentioned constantly in official RNSs and interviews with the Management" Who is "them", How do you know this ? Unless your reading differnet RNS's I have not seen any mention of "them" is any recent information releases, and again the mention of being fully funded. BPC are not, as yet, fully funded. Not until the CLN has been signed off with all the relevant conditions being met to allow this to happen. When the RNS is released in regards to the variations that were asked for by BPC then a clearer picture will emerge but at present, between now and the 9th March the main focus, by all investors here, should be information regarding the CLN as this represents the funding that BPC require to be "fully funded"
I feel that reading your post it's more of wishful thinking of what you want to happen and you state it as fact rather than stating facts that are actually real.
Couple of things in regards to the RNS. BPC have historically released RNS's at either 0700 or after 1630 when the market has closed. I see nothing to indicate they will change this pattern of information release.
Based on that it will either be after the close today or tomorrow before an RNS is now likely to be released. Please see BPC's own website for this information on the timings of previous releases of information.
The main information to look for, IMO, is the agreement for the waivers that have been asked to qualify for the CLN. When this has been agreed then it opens access to the CLN and drilling can progress. As per the original conditions of the CLN this will need to be done before the 9th March. There was no information as to what waivers were being asked to be removed / amended and there is nothing there in any information that leads me to think that there is any farm in being planned or in the offing.
I can see and read of no desire or pressure on any major to open themselves to this type of risk with this type of drill. Any Major will wait till either the drill goes ahead and is successful then make a deal, anything else, I feel, if wishful thinking.
If a farm in happens outwith this, then it will likely be with a medium to small operator looking to expand quickly and willing to take the high risk that this drill presents. This wouldn't really benefit BPC in the long run. My feeling is that the BOD will have to take this drill over the line themselves with no farm in partner so the focus is really on funding, hence any RNS relating to the CLN is the most important information as to where this will head.
The Mutual Fund was designed to get the wealthy Bahamians on side with a view to possibly use their influence with local politics to help smooth any speed bumps that may ensue but that is all and has no effect on the finances for the Drilling Program. This is only my opinion but please DYOR prior to investing in any share.
I read with at times, some bewilderment, how people construe that this was a good / great post. A few points, porosity at 8%, this is not great by any stretch of the imagination. They have a weak layer of gas prevailing Rick of approx 10-110mtrs yet can’t specify what the flow rates are of even they have tried to flow the well. Flowing of a well at TD, if successful, is common, if not standard practice. Considering that the mighty Schlumberger are onsite to advise then I find the lack of credible and constructive information a bit suspicious in the interim. Why, at the start of the RNS, does it wax lyrical about what they hoped to find and less of what they have actually found. If your all popping champagne on 8% porosity and 110mrts then I fear you may have to re-cork that bottle. Given the jack of any credible information then it would seem a weak find at best. And before the rose tinted glasses brigade jump all over this, please read the RNS completely, and word for word including any context. It’s very ambiguous and vague as to what’s actually been found, awaiting more test results and sidewalk analysis??? When Drilling, you’d know what you have, whether that be oil or gas your looking for, before or as you TD the well. All testing will really do is fully confirm the results you already know. Where is the data / info for the well pressures / gas flow rates. Magically omitted ?? Don’t get too overwhelmed by this RNS.
There’s such a thing as “logging while drilling” so they would a fairly good idea as to what’s already down there and the depth / range of the payzone. Strange when Sound / Parsons always RNS any good news really quickly but hold back when it’s bad news. I remember so well the Badille scenario and how info flowed with that debacle. The Malky interview with his ticket in his pocket to head to Milan. He already knew at that point it was a duster so given that there’s no additional info on this RNS it’s not looking good. If they had hit i would have expected rough guesstimates followed up with the wireline logging comment. If this has missed it will likely bring into question for drilling TE10 & 11as if this was a sweet spot based of all the survey work done then it possibly shows up that the gas that was there is not anymore. This is only my opinion and I’m sure a future RNS, post wireline logging, might show up something else.