Member Info for MatrixObserver

Hi mtahir1888

As of May 24th update (March results webcast), ENQ had 5m hedged for H1 (out of approx 10m production) and 2.5m for H2 (hopefully will get to 11-12m production for H2), so is possible have some room for H2 hedging, especially with October RCF payment due.

AB did mention hedging is primarily for CAPEX, but should find out tomorrow...

MO's excited for tomorrow, will know if goody from tone of AB's voice ;-}

Good luck all

MO

Hey E121 thanks for info on RCF etc, sooner all these facilities are paid down the happier MO will be, is part of the four year plan, that will hopefully made clearer tomorrow, Rome wasn't built in a day... MO still happy to be an ENQer :-)

L3, MO did not cost 3rd Magnus well as drilling not underway yet, is an injector well for WAG pattern so may wait or not, usually would be spudded by now if pushing on... is ok to have a guess, the piper has to be paid whatever ;-}

Defo think H1 will be much lighter than H2, purely due to drilling costs for DC4 in Q4, is only opinion based on anecdotal observations, have split of 35%/65%. for H1 v H2 CAPEX outlay (excluding Magnus, even though only one well in H1, maybe 2 in H2 is a similar split).

MO spent yesterday running the numbers, checking whether the wells in NNS are online, i.e. West Dons and yes, all online...

If ENQ can tell that currently producing ~70k boepd, MO will be very happy, 65k is still good...

Best wishes

MO

Good day fellow ENQers

MO's been observing some excellent input, think Fernan10's numbers come in similar to MO, but all good stuff...

Been trying to get handle of ~250m CAPEX split for H1/H2, is obviously up for debate, is only guesses based on observations, may have forgotten something...

- Had Heather new well, paid out of savings from well abandonment (maybe $7-10m per well).
- Alma fix, know is assigned to OPEX (but is chunk to pay) is approx cost of $30m mid-June to mid-August ($10m H1/$20m H2)

CAPEX

Kraken - Only little H1 rig time through to end of Jan 18, then drilling rig has been away for fix, then at Dana, Alma and now Azinor prospect, have had some activity on DC4 in Jun - H1 ~$50m (new rock-dumped pipes and template/manifold), H2 should be more CAPEX intensive due to DC4 drilling, H2 ~$100m (wells not cheap)

Magnus x 1 (yes debate how paid), 1st was long well 7.5km and drilled in H1, so must be gross cost circa $30m $7.5m Magnus (25% WI), 2nd well drilled in H2 was 5km ~$5m net to ENQ.

Seligi x 1 $10-15m per well in H1, same for second well in H2

Maybe another $10m for other bits in H1 and H2...

Will go for a H1/H2 split of $80m/$170m

Please feel free to add etc

Good luck, not long now...

MO

Kraken was originally costed at $90 per barrel...

"FDP case, anticipated net IRR, in the high teens – over 25 year life at $90/bbl oil price.
Includes two heavy oil allowances; one for Kraken and one for Kraken North"

This was based on project cost of $3.2bn, it in fact will cost $2.3bn, if the same cost reduction is applied to original $90 oil price, it comes down to $64.68 per barrel, so is actually good over $65.

MO realises is not straight forward, but the $900m reduction in CAPEX is not insignificant, otherwise debt would be a billion higher and ENQ might not exist, but that's not the case, debt has risen very slowly over the past few years considering high CAPEX ratio.

AB has done a good job steering ENQ through the last few years of hardship, where Kraken was the main focus and is now setting ENQ up to benefit from efforts to date, Think Bob Davenport has stepped-up to the plate and can sense more productivity in UK CS activities, is getting there...

Not long for some "hopefully" comprehensive update, MO can see why did not do Aug ops update, as have had some much happening in last two weeks...

Good luck in whatever choice...

MO

LOL E121...

Please let MO have his 250 fantasy, can see it lurking somewhere in the Matrix, is that air that you're breathing, lol !!!

SP will need to be circa 68p by end of month, so will defo need a repairer spike or 3 ;-}

Have done production guess for Early Sep, can see 70k if all parts of portfolio are performing at or above average, is lots to ask, but MO is MO...

Good luck

MO

Hi Chilts

Is much to consider and model for ENQ, think will need to show on Friday that current production is around 70k boepd to head towards FTSE 250.

Is possible, but will need Thistle/Deveron and Northern Producer (Dons, Conrie, Ythan) satellite fields to be performing, looks like down for at least 3 weeks in June and some in May, could do with seeing July figs, but c'est la vie !!!

To start...

Need AK back to 40-45k bopd, tanker #22 (was good start, showed 40k+) left 29th Aug @ 10:30 am, so if turns up morning of 9th September then is 11 full days, might get a sign tanker en-route by Friday, can hope. DC4 online Q1 19, should see 50k+ then.

Enquest Producer, need Alma work overs to be a success, with all 6 producers and 1 injector brought online (only 1 out of 7 was operational pre-works), really should be over 10k gross, eager to know actuals !!! Last offload left 25/8 @ 09:00, so unlikely next tanker pre-Friday.

Malaysia, with two new wells, if performing well can add 3k boepd, so maybe Malaysian production 13k+ now, hope news on Friday

Magnus, is not really cash flow yet, but is encouraging that new well added 2-3k, one more to add another 3k, so looking nearly 20k bopd gross.

Heather/Broom, performed in June well above 12 month average, so hope keeping it going !!!

Kittiwake, not expecting anything great yet, have Eagle development to add, and Scolty/Crathes to fix with heated pipe.

Pays your money, makes your choice...

Good luck fellow ENQers

MO

Good evening E121

Can see some info regarding PM8/Seligi PSC on pages 70/71

http://www.enquest.com/~/media/Files/E/Enquest/CMD%20Dec%202015/CMD151208Final_updated.pdf

Does look quite complex, lol (is late). i.e.

- Royalty is 10%
- The remaining oil is split between cost and profit oil based on R/C ratio (R/C ratio table on page 70)
- Cost oil is used to pay EnQuest’s costs
- Profit oil and unused cost oil is divided among EnQuest and Malaysia
- Profit oil is subject to supplemental tax, which increases at higher oil price
- Corporate tax rate 38%

Cheers

MO

Hi TWalbyoff

Think are committed to reduce RCF by $270m in October...

Have already early cancelled $50m, see below from May 24

"At 30 April 2018, cash and available bank facilities amounted to $204.8 million

The Group's improving cash flow generation capacity is enabling the early cancellation of $50 million
of the Group's credit facility by the end of May, with the term facility reducing from $1,125 million to $1,075 million. Upon cancellation, the Group's cash and available bank facilities will therefore reduce
by $50 million"

So leaves a further $220m to find, with cash equivs of ~$150m end of May, should be ok with additional production coming online in H2... is hard to know CAPEX in early H2 for Kraken.

Should be an interesting and revealing Friday, good luck all fellow ENQers

MO

Hi adrianz

Coordinates are from Kaz geology map, can offer no guarantees...

https://gis.geology.gov.kz/geo/

801 doesn't show on Bing/Google (only Kaz geology map) - 46°00′52″N 54°04′30″E
A5 not on Google Maps, Bing is from 2017 can see big rig still there, Kaz map for latest - 45°58′17″N 54°09′39″E
Possibly 146 on MJF not on Google, old setup pic on Bing Maps - 46°04′05″N 54°01′27″E

Good hunting, is MO's interpretation anyway, hope am reasonably correct.

Cheers all, come on CASP, getting hungry for info !!!

MO

Cheers E121

I do not believe Thistle is being decommissioned, has plenty of years left. Alma data yet to be seen... Magnus new well looks good, still have one to add in Aug, Malaysia can add 8.75k, also 2 new wells data soon, maybe 1k boepd for assoc gas is NS.

North North Sea is probably lower due to several weeks of summer maintenance or possibly Dunlin bypass works.

Looks like H1 will come in middle of guidance estimates at circa 54k boepd, is outlook what MO's looking for, is hard to see current NNS info, except big ships...

Below are MO's stats including % change for each field for latest month versus average.

Field Latest 12-Month-Ave Chg %
ALBA 974 901 8.2
ALMA 1,160 1,165 -0.4
BROOM 1,640 1,469 11.6
CONRIE 8 67 -88.4
CRATHES 1,195 1,342 -11.0
DEVERON 583 2,240 -74.0
DON SOUTH WEST 487 1,894 -74.3
GADWALL 323 384 -15.8
GALIA 258 277 -6.8
GOOSANDER 453 424 6.8
GROUSE 443 422 5.0
HEATHER 3,354 2,581 29.9
KITTIWAKE 0 0 0.0
KRAKEN 17,676 12,199 44.9
KRAKEN NORTH 5,699 3,299 72.7
MAGNUS 4,141 3,387 22.3
MAGNUS SOUTH 0 0 0.0
MALLARD 598 680 -12.1
SCOLTY 0 0 0.0
THISTLE 885 3,521 -74.9
WEST DON 0 926 -100.0
YTHAN 129 797 -83.8
TOTALS 40,004 37,974 5.3

Good luck all

MO

Hey Therapist, love ya...

Please don't sell any organs, ENQ will come really good, but come on, even if you have a spare one !!!

Anyway, think good news on DC4 SURF...

Have had template installer, pipe-layer, rock-dumper and recently big crane ship to finish tie-in DC3 to DC4...

Looks like last phase is now complete and now ready for drilling...

VIKING NEPTUN has just departed after several weeks of DC3/DC4 works at Kraken field !!!

Good night

MO

801 and A5 (still may eventually need a liner) will flow... Probably are already.... It's on the cards...

MO's been scanning Kaz/Russian satellite (much more recent than Google/Bing) and is reasonably up to date H1 2018, can see big rig at 801 and smaller rig at A5, still had the storage tanks at A5 from last year's flowtest, MO's estimate is can store approx 3k barrels (3 x 15m tanks) and had dongle for tankers...

Will need to change layers and backgrounds to see well...

https://gis.geology.gov.kz/geo/

801 around May did not have any storage tanks attached to pipes, but should have now... Don't forget, 801 was flowing oil naturally to BOP in 2017, even without production tubing and could have been flowed with stuck pipe for increased cashflow...

Is obvious MO thinks CASP will get there, so can say no more... Except meet ya there :-)

Good luck all CASPers, you're friendly share ghost !!!

MO

WOW Dol03, MO shouldn't have clicked that link + rose'

Is all technical analysis jargon... I stopped at RSI over the fling-flang-floo, at least I can relate to Elliot Wave (riding his bike on E.T. lol)

Does TA know Alma is fixed, Magnus + 2 new wells, Seligi 2 x new wells, AK back to getting on with-it...

If real world is like MO can see, then ENQ will re-rate towards FTSE 250....

MO's happy anyway, hope all ENQers are also, is week have been waiting for...

Is good test for MO...

Good luck...

MO

Good evening E121 and fellow ENQers

We're entering the final furlong, very much looking forward to next Friday, fingers crossed for top job !!!

Looks like STS transfer to Searover is complete, with a final draught of 11.9m, this equates to approx 527k barrels of 14 API Kraken crude with no ballast retained...

Should be an interesting/exciting week !!!!

Good luck all and good weekend

MO

Better than EastEnders for drama and dirt, lol

CASP on the CUSP !!!!

Come-on CASP, the natives are getting restless !!! Need information...

Good luck CASPers

MO

E121, uttamnshah has probably sold or shorted...

MO's gunna ride into H1 update/results with head held high... No selling the news for MO !!! Should get repairer spike or two if what anticipating is well received...

If Poo holds around $75 is good for ENQ, especially if can show current production levels ~65-70k per day across portfolio.

Is gamble like much in life, but MO is looking forward to observing ENQ in FTSE 250 and resultant SP implications.

Has been what observations were for...

Good luck all, exciting times...

MO

Heather's draught is now updated to 12m...

Below are MO's stats, is ranged based on theoreticals, but guess is ~500k typical offload

12.6 days since #21

Offload #22 (Heather Knutsen) - Started: 28/8 08:30, left 29/8 10:30 (26 hours) - Draught change: 2.7m - Estimated Offload: 448k (1/3 ballast retained, 20k MT) to 577k (no ballast) barrels

STS to Searover, will confirm numbers...

Is now on to #23, be nice to have en-route when H1 results come out...

Cheers

MO

Cheers for comprehensive BUMI info E121...

Sounds like progress...

Will do HK range in a while, cleaning at the mo...

MO :-)

Have a good-un, run free and wild :-)

MO will settle for virtual wave via marinetraffic, lol

Good luck fellow ENQers

Spindok, please wave to Heather for MO if get to John O'groats...

Should be in Pentland Firth (bit of sea between Orkney and mainland) tomorrow early evening'ish, due in Scapa Flow at 8pm, lol

Think we're a step closer to FTSE 250, will need Market Cap ~£800m (68p per share) at current FTSE 250 levels.

Will need a solid H1 and very good current outlook, maybe will need a guidance upgrade, 56k - 64k, is possible.

Good luck fellow ENQers, we're due a good update...

MO