Member Info for masaimara

Yes let's hope we can breakthrough the 600 soon and hold. If we can hold it's a good sycological barrier to get behind us and move forward to 650---700.

Can't say I am surprised about Carnivals big sp drop today. Yes they recorded record revenue for the latest 3 months update but they still managed a loss of over 400m dollars. That is a lot of money to lose when you have record takings for the period and still dont come out on the positive side. It just shows how hard it is to make money in travel. . I think investors are now getting tired ( and harder to the fact ) of waiting for that special word in travel stock updates ------- PROFIT , especially in a company with so much debt. Does the situation for Carnival have any similarities to other travel stock? Well yes it does ---- Tui. Augusts update needs to be exeptional to move this sp considerabally upwards. I hope it does but i am suddenly feeling a recent change in the amount of people making bookings.

I would suggest that drops this week are purely down to interest rate hysteria and that there will be a rise next week.

0.5% rise which is what I thought would happen

Not sure how many of you on here are wrinklies or coming up to wrinkly status --- lol --- but in the late 70s , the 80s and 90s interest rates at today's level and higher were often the norm and didn't cause today's level of drama. We lived with it because that was how it was. That all changed with the financial crisis when interest rates crashed and then people became complacent , taking out large mortgages to their financial limit without any thought of inevitable rate rises and the consequences , relying on artificially low rates. This in turn boosting up house prices and then making it necessary to have to take out a large mortgage in order to be able to buy a home. Should the government give financial help to people with large mortgages? No they shouldn't. Did they give help to people who lost increases in their investments due to low interest rates? No and they shouldn't have. People have to take responsibility for their own actions and lives and act accordingly and sensibly. We can't be pampered all the time. Yes definately a sign of the times. As regards tomorrow's interest rate decision, I think it is very likely to be a 0.5% jump , that seems to be the signals coming from the BOE and the treasury.

I did expect a drop to around 580 this week but didn't expect it before the BOE rate decision on Thursday.

I think today's fall back is probabably market positioning for next Thursdays rate rise. Up to next Thursday i would predict a fallback to around 590 , to 580---585 after the announcement and then an increase again the week after. Only my opinion of course but this pattern does seem to happen

Thanks Mike --- wonder if the shorters rationale is to do with expected interest rate rises. The bank of England's next rate decision is next week and there is talk of a possible 0.5% rise in one go and they have stated the rates will rise whatever it takes necessary to kill the high inflation and this has been backed up by the chancellor Jeremy Hunt.

I thought Gladstone had dropped their short! They appear to be back in!

Tui up over3% , Jet2 down by about the same percentage? Strange!

Good upgrade from Deutsche today to buy.

The problem being MikeS02 is that there needs to be some positive messages to put out. I am sure if there was something positive to put out then the bods would put it out as it benefits them also. I think we are in a position that there will be nothing coming out positively ( or indeed negatively ) until the next update in August. I just don't think the bods know what the situation will be until then.

MikeS02 --- thanks for that , fingers crossed.

Not sure what's happening here with the sp. Did not expect it to drop back to this level at all. Assumed ( obviously wrongly ) that it would be gaining ground now that the consoĺidation and Ri is over and done with. When it hit and held over 540 for a short while I thought that was the breakthrough but obviously not. I just don't know what is going to boost the sp up as it dosnt look like a break even point for the company is going to come until next year and debt is still high. I have also now read of a possible holiday price war coming assumingly because of diminishing demand which would put pressure on margins. I would like to be positive but am becoming more pessimistic at the moment

Stumpy ---- you are correct when you say Tui stated that there would be no last minute deals this year. A big big statement to make and one which surprised me somewhat. It was either based on assumption that all holidays would be sold at expected prices due to high demand or a marketing ploy to encourage people to book early. And of course holiday companies want all holidays to sell at full price , that is their aim. MikeS02 is wrong to say lower prices for late last minute booked holidays is part of the plan. The plan is to sell all holidays at the full price. Travel companies have powerful computer programs to price holidays according to demand and time factor. If holidays havnt sold near to departure dates the price is reduced according to demand and viewing interest. I have closely looked at holiday pricing over the last couple of months and I have seen holidays departing within 2 weeks at considerable discounts. For just one example i saw a 14 days holiday for £400 where 4 weeks earlier it would have cost over £770. That is just one example of many and by definition they are late last minute deals. To say they are not late last minute deals is totally wrong as the holiday company clearly planned to sell those holidays at much higher prices and to sell at the the lower prices could be a break even or even loss making exercise just to fill capacity. So yes there are definitely late deals to be had and always will be to some destination wether that destination is popular or not. To state that there will be no late deals is actually not true.

It would be nice to hold the 40s over the weekend. Bit of a barrier at the moment. If it can I could easily see 560 --- 570 next week.

Yes Trent , I've noticed that before with First Choice. Holidays that are substantially cheaper than Tui for virtually the same package even though they are sister companies. Maybe it's just a good marketing ploy.

No it's not a lot I agree but when only Tui is mentioned twice in a 30 minute program for bad reasons it sticks in the mind. Other companies no doubt will have similar failures but they only picked out Tui. Maybe the program was made by Jet2 lol.

Typo --- should read TONIGHT ON ITV !

Holiday programme at 8.30 pm tonight on it. Two problem holidays both reported as being Tui holidays , well they would be wouldn't they. That's just TUIs luck isn't it at the moment the way things are going.