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https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Big-Oils-Dwindling-Reserves-Are-A-Major-Problem.html
Adding reserves that will last more than 10 years will be like gold dust when the world's oil demand comes back and it will.
HBR may not be an Major ,yet ,but any ambitions to be one will require reserves and production to not only be at best maintained but replenished.
Bloobird, lol, you make it sound like Sealion is the only oil field in the world that's under scrutiny from those 3 ladies , bar Christina , bet neither of the other 2 have even heard of it.
No news on Zama still ? , cant see that being FID ready at this rate in 2021 !, better to deal with a government that wants to develop than one that wants to take it away. Zama going to Arbitration perhaps ?
According to the Navitas presentation of Oct 20 ( just found it ) , a whopping $1.1b has been spent on Sealion so far
PAGE 8 and 15.
https://ir.navitaspet.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Navitas-Capital-Market-Presentation-10.20_Final-web.pdf
I think it was interesting that the tone was that they would be only now starting to look at capitol expenditure and FIDS for Zama and Sealion as they want to look more deeply into the projects.
I really hope that is not how far behind they are in planning, would they till today to look into their asset in depth / detail ?
I cannot believe such a sharp bunch of operators are not fully right up to speed and that FIG extended their licenses so quickly based on their discussions to "look into it ". RKH and FIG were surely aligned on pushing for a firmer answer.
Smells more and more like Zama is being pumped as not for sale and Sealion is talked about as they have no idea of the project economics .
I said months ago that any company taking on the size of debt, production assets and development assets would run a deep DD of them, guaranteed they would have.
Today HBR were given a pass in not being asked about in detail about the company, the next time they will be having to be more forthcoming with harbouring aspirations for a FTSE listing.
https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/premier-oil-PMO/share-news/Premier-Oil-PLC-Annual-Financial-Report/84668542
Interesting Read the risk factor segment:
Also, lower down the document:
Objective
Premier is focused on effective capital and balance sheet management, and quality of earnings through driving operational and technical efficiencies.
2020 Progress
-- Reduced earnings after tax due to lower commodity prices and production, and a number
of non-cash charges
-- Merger with Chrysaor creates a Combined Group with a broad set of high return projects
-- and the ability to invest in them
Stevo12,
Mexico is hardly the place for a stable market and a partner that is the most indebted oil company in the world , PEMEX.
There is no other proven oil and gas asset there , so to say they will have lots of other assets in Mexico or far east , which assets and how long to drill, prove up and do a FEED all ready for FID, it takes a long time as we know.
If its FEED ready they have worked out all the infrastructure needs and the FEED design should take care of all the requirements .
There is more than 1 phase when it's all set up, phase 2 and no doubt 3 as well, that's why Harbour will go for it , it's virtually all their's to manage as operator in a stable fiscal and political setup, and no Argentina can do nowt but shout about it.
If you want to be a FTSE 100 company dealing in billion's £ or $ projects , it should should not phase the management.
Surely if Sealion is sanctioned or not, that is binary, how is it 5:1 ???
100% + rise in the last few months and still way below what it should imo.
This stock is mainly held by PI's, less than 15% by management and II's. Perhaps the odd II also holding below the reporting threshold.
Nearly 80% held by PI's,.
ON FID , it would be an eye opener if PI's dont sell in droves and to see the market having to pay up full value to enter with a position, this is where I believe the II's are more efficient as they enter when value proven is there and PI's exit on the rise when value is proven to chase a fast buck elsewhere, only to see it's true value a few months later.
GLA
Stevo12,
Don't disagree the deal is hardly the best , but when they have been at it this long and were running out of ANY options it is better to take a deal when they see no clear course to progress.
30% is still significant, no debt as we speak off and no repayment of loans till well after 1st oil.
IF OM comes in then with a low to solid payout, then even if Harbour walk away ( not likely at all now imo ) RKH will take over all the licenses , with more then half a billion invested in the region and FEED ready to boot.
FIG just extended the licenses for nearly 2 years, off the back of what assurance ?
Please can you expand on how you give a FID go ahead a 20% chance , 1 in 5 ?
We are on AIM so everyone knows the score, or they should do.
This is a very strong BUY now . 11p to 50 p on FID ,well that is a lot but realistic in current POO climate, add on any OM award and the potential returns are huge and will only get bigger for long term holders as they approach 1st oil. .
GLA
The largest parts of the E&E capital expenditure in the period were the Charlie-1 appraisal well in Alaska which was plugged and abandoned after encountering non-commercial gas condensate, and ongoing pre-development expenditure on the Sea Lion Phase 1 project in the Falkland Islands.
So money still being spent on Sealion !!
Ovets, lol lightning fast !!!
Has taught me that any company involved with arbitration is not worth investing in while waiting for the result of the award.
I hope they have lost ,not just for my holding here but the slapdash political system they employ to stay in power. If they were serious about this moratorium they would have formulated a back up plan , they haven't and it's ridiculous this lawyer is not having a go at those idiots who have squandered this time doing fudge all.
On top of which most everyone who was asking for an exploration/ Production permit has re applied and will sue the pants of them using ECT and probably a joint action going into billions.
All this so some idiots can be popular with the green voters, scandalous and hopefully very costly to them re RKH.
Tomorrow's open could be very interesting indeed.
Why not just Award a Ferrari for Every shareholder and call it evens .
Why does the state lawyer not give LEGAl reasons for why Italy should win the award.
He spends all his time on why it's unfair that companies can get the award anywhere in the world, while inferring that Australia and New York are places to get easy verdicts, lol.
How it's unfair that companies can now fight in arbitration as previously they would have run out of funds , where as it seems to me Italy more than happy to keep borrowing of the EU to keep the country afloat. What a cynical way to admit that states drag out this process so as to drain a company's resource.
So, if there was a legal reason for the Arbitration panel to fall back on to dismiss the award, it would surely have been done by now.
So the minimum he implies is 29m euro's , and if they agree to lost profits and interest then it's bonanza time for shareholders here. Somewhere between costs and cost +lost profit + interest +legal fee's would do very nicely.
Nearly about to pop out of the wedge and up towards 13p, fingers crossed.
http://digitaleditions.telegraph.co.uk/data/539/reader/reader.html?social#!preferred/0/package/539/pub/539/page/92/article/151357
If this is on the horizon for North sea , what will the landscape be like in the UK North Sea in 3 to 4 years time and we end up importing more and more oil and gas down the road ??
O/T : Maybe Cairn saw the writing on the wall and moved out of the North Sea and into Egypt.
Yes, I bought in there when RKH holding was sold
Would be worth double if they had been able to keep the holding.
The trading here is dead as a dodo at the moment but RSI and moving averages getting better by the day.
Well summarised Ovets,
Cairn also have tax credits ,yet decided to sell Catcher and Kraken. Some doubts about Kraken for them from recent history.
So why Catcher as well, the main producing asset for PMO . Could be the price was too good to resist and it's a decent price as well ,with all the future POO related add on's.
Maybe the buyer wanted both and was willing to do business on that basis only.
But , it's his use of the word "declining " that should perk up ears here. He may have said it to justify the sale , but there has to be a basis of truth in it for sure.
At current POO and the start of assets declining in the next 2 to 4 years (Linda Cook) , that makes Sealion a no brainer and the silence is golden .
Odds stacked firmly in FID favour and partner(s) coming on board.
We can already see saleable asset prices are on the up . Companies are looking at ESG as well and Sealion has a dedicated team for that as well. Good for FIG and Ukef approval going forward.
Cairn disposes of Catcher and Kraken.
Quote from the CEO :
" The divestment of our UK producing assets as they move into DECLINE phase, will further strengthen our ability to pursue Cairn's strategic goals and position the company robustly for the decade ahead. "
How much decline will there be in the next 2 to 4 years ? .
Yes, in fact it's worth noting that SHOULD Harbour withdraw ( more and more unlikely with today's extended license renewal) they would look "inherit" the license and may look keep Navitas on as well.
Personally I think the minimum value for RKH would be to flog the whole project and I'd say they would get a minimum starting bid at £100m for it. Feed ready and with contractors willing to contribute financially.
So many mid caps will be making a killing in the next few months at least with POO at nearly $69pbo.
Dear Mr Moody,
Could you please clarify re the rns this morning if Navitas were involved in the License extension discussion with FIG ?
REPLY : No, Navitas are not currently a joint venture partner. I can tell you that we are in touch with them and they remain interested.
I hope that helps
Sam
LSE and everyone,
I had a reply to my query about Wind down costs for Sealion.
Sam Moody was good enough to reply himself ( please keep any hate to yourselves) :
Mr XXXXXXXXX,
Thank you for your e mail
Apologies for the delay in replying,
Wind down costs are difficult to quantify. The biggest potential cost is the decommissioning of the dock facility in Stanley harbour but in all likelihood the government would want that kept as the existing dock is nearing the end of its life. The other potential wind down costs are fairly small and include closing the Premier office in Stanley and making the premier project team (currently <10 people across London and Stanley) redundant.
Should Harbour decide to withdraw then we would seek to “inherit” the licence but in the end we would need FIG consent. Additionally it might be that we try to keep Navitas in the acreage should Harbour withdraw.
I hope that all makes sense.
Thanks
Sam
Sam Moody
Chief Executive Officer