Member Info for Marmited

Busy bees..

ORCP is keeping me entertained. Like watching paint dry here! Roll on Venus-1 to kick off some excitement.

Or millionaires one day Rodders!

"7 years ago these guys had $20 mm and a 7 year term on a semi interesting exploration permit by the end of this year it will nothing and nil. What on earth have they been doing?"

Erm.. Surviving and getting paid a handsome wage for doing so! Is that any different from any company on AIM? How many drills have taken place in the last 7 years offshore Namibia? It is frontier and wildly reported as extremely under explored. A tiny company such as GBP are 100% reliant on others to take a bite on its acreage. There lies the risk v reward. Very High Risk - Very High Reward. So, the question is, is the acreage with billions of barrels of potential attractive enough at a market cap of between £2-3m holding 85% of both PEL 29 & 94?
The majors have only recently re-entered Namibia. Exxon mid 2018. The new theory of the regional seal depth was only discovered in 2019. It is only the beginning of 2020. GBP have only ever maintained the main target reservoirs in 29 & 94 are at those deeper depths which previously the main players doing anything there were ignoring – See history.
The single and only oil bought to surface to date came from depths below that seal. The Welwitschia drill was so far off the mark. TRP still grabbed what was left of their old PEL 10 with main Albian targets? Why do that 4 years later? Exploration in Namibia turning by any chance? TRP say they are surrounded by source kitchens.. Our 94 has excellent H/indicators such as oil slicks, pock marks, terminating deep rooted chimneys in the Albian/Aptian, up dip, blah blah. Further we have bonus areas in the shallower targets plus read across to a proven play *against* the structure, not *in* the structure (Marula lead so far to date, Stratagraphic trap up dip from Tullow's/Africa Energy/PCL's proven play in 37).
It’s not about deeper basins! It's about deeper targets within those basins. Angola = Albian/Aptian - South Africa = Albian/Aptian - Namibia in the middle of the two (Wingat oil) = Albian/Aptian. Oh, TRP’s main strutures Alpha/Gamma is now all about the Albian.
News this morning Africa Energy/Azinam: The Gazania-1 well will target a relatively low-risk rift basin oil play **up-dip** from the discovery. (Up Dip is important particularly for lateral migration, conduits, thief zones! (See PCL / Africa Energy/PEL37)
Yes money is running out, we have another year. We are reliant on a farm out to progress, it is no secret but why award PEL 94 to GBP with little money? Namcor who advise the ministry both know what is what. Why waiver a further % relinquishment on 29? Why the inclusion into NAMPOA alongside the big boys and girls in 2019? Why allow the 10% placement capacity (a possible placement totalling 25%) to expire end of 2019 and then renew it again yet still not use it? Seems they have a plan to me, just don’t know what it is yet.

Mmmm.. fingers crossed the contacts with counterparties is regarding target 6.

So, to sum up.. No, TRP is not a better bet in my view due to its overpromising, equity raising followed by further underdelivering and further raising.
You get what it says on the tin here.The board are not chasing, believe in what we hold and have been holding on waiting for the players to wake up. All new geological beliefs, target reservoir zones, seal, trap type and updip location have fallen into place regarding our assets. I’m stating put thanks.

Ah, so TRP for example can use bridging loans and placements galore but FBP who are yet to issue either will simply disappear along with our licences and the huge 40+% held by the directors?
So GBP’s recent addition to NAMPOA (TRP not a member) was just for fun? GBP won’t enter a second phase of the licence 94? Just do the current work for fun? The drills to be sunk this year to test the new theory matter not?
29? GBP must have given good reason to prevent an additional % relinquishment. We don’t know why yet.
Yep! Huge fan of GBP.. not loved, under the radar, huge risk v reward potential. No debt, no loans, hot frontier licences. As with ANY AIM stock.. wouldn’t put my house on it.

Tower fans.. take a journey from London to Edinburgh, stop off at Birmingham and shout out Edinburgh does not exist!

Ha! Tower dropped ALL Namibian assets 5 years ago. The only reason they reached giddy heights back then was because of Namibia. They totally messed it up too! It’s all about the lower and below the cretaceous. Do have a look at the licence for PEL 94 awarded in late 2018. Do have a look at neighbouring PEL 37’s expiry and further extension with no commitments. Do have a look at 29’s waivering of acreage.
Do have a look at our updip read across to adjacent prospects which could hold many billions of barrels yet appear to be suffering lateral migration distance issues. Do have a look at the new beliefs from drill data as to the depth of the regional seal.
Tower? It’s two main structures Alpha and Gamma have little if anything to do with the above as they are required to be sourced from the Namibe basin. If Exxon don’t want to play ball then I can’t see who would over there. Regarding GBP, take your pick! Could be anyone as we are updip to them all with regional closure.

Ah, Italy.. I’m beginning to wonder who is funding Puglia. I mean really, 4 licences exceeding the maximum permissible size of individual permits?
Keep focusing on Namibia GBP.

You have to remember TRP’s Alpha and Gamma larger dip closed prospects are believed to be sourced from the Namibe Basin according to their own historical work. They geologically appear to have more to do with Angola than the Namibian Walvis Basin. The boundary between Angola and Namibia is a human line only.
Welwitchia is the closure for the Walvis. The shallower horizons for oil which TRP historically targeted are believed to be to the east (Marula prospect for example) sealed/trapped against the structure itself.
Asher is never in a million years going to talk up Welwitschia unless it is drilled and oil is subsequently discovered. They relinquished all Namibian licences in 2015 and lost it. Welwitschia is unfinished business like Brulpadda and has haunted TRP to this day.

I like this from BondSan over on the TRP thread.

Alpha and Gamma are very large in surface area. Delta is with GBP now i understand. 1 Billion barrels + in each

360 million barrel resource lead on the slope part of license - usually minnows get the near shore stuff but the particular shape of this license allows TRP to access the outermost targets with the Majors. ( See Guyana for example - the Prospects furthest out go to Exxon , Total , Apache while Eco and CGX get the smaller leftovers nearshore )

Ha! Our own PR company teasing! As far as ‘potential for something to surprise’ I believe GBP sit on top there. ;-)

There is info to be gleaned from that.
So no plans to spend anymore money on PEL 37 eh..
Therefore I think it’s safe to assume
1. PEL 37 has no reservoirs of note below that regional seal.
2. It has no faulted traps/reservoirs up dip to catch their Proven oil subsequently laterally migrated some distance away.
3. The distance between the source and the reservoir being closer at Albatross does appear a load of cobblers and more of a let down gently exercise. (It was RNS’d that the wet gas signatures began in the shale section above cormorants reservoir and continued throughout.. the oil generated didn’t go via the scenic route, it went into and back out of the reservoir taking a trip elsewhere up dip)

PEL 30 looks even more wobbly and when combined with Gils recent interview the other week plus the info we have discovered regarding up dip faults etc it leaves a huge question.. will we see Cooper being drilled? I still doubt it.

Mmmm? TRP RNS .. now getting an investor update at the LSE presentation investor evening.

Welcome!
This share moves quickly in either direction often with very large spreads. You get used to it :-)
39.99% of shares not in public hands (Directors) and many more tightly held. Hard to buy in number on the up, hard to sell in number on the way down.

Cheers ears..
Well, another lightbulb moment? Azinam’s licences with the exception of PEL 30 are downdip/south of Wingat 41api oil in the Walvis Basin.

Namcor/Geoscience - evidence for an up-dip bypass zone for the non-deposition of sediment, and/or laterally continuous fault systems that will provide up-dip trapping.

J. Have you got a link to that drill v seal image you got off of LinkedIn?

Azinam, Seapulse, Exxon or even Total.. all in gather mode in Southern Africa. (The ones we know about)

Africa Energy may pop up in the mix as what it has is a little wobbly imo.

Good find J.