Member Info for Marmion

3 bulk carriers docked in Richard's Bay coal terminal at the moment (the most I've seen for a while):

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:32.051/centery:-28.817/zoom:14

Glad they've finally had the balls to up the divi (a bit - still hugely below 2019 level) as they're going to get shouted at for "excessive" profits anyway. Just in time for xmas

Not forgetting the property portfolio valuation, estimated in the £Bs.

£6m sale on a £2.4b company? No biggie.

Nearer 125% for me, based on my average buy in of ~£2.50 and total post withholding tax divis of £3.15. Looking forward to the sp passing £25 next year.

Expect we'll sail back through £18 in the run up to exd, but that £20 will be a harder summit to pass, with many algorithms taking profits. Pretty decent profits for many, but I'll be holding at least for my 10 bagger at £25ish (probably soon after full year results next March).

Glad the divi is (finally) increased (a bit). They're going to get screamed at by the likes of Rachel Reeves whatever they do, so might as well return to pre-pandemic payouts rather than rely on buybacks all the time. Great that debt is down too.

27c eps last year at $1.32 and 735m shares = 20.6p, assume the same this year at $1.27 and only 706m shares = 22.3p. Highly likely to be highly higher - 35c, even 40 at the moment. Thursday will show. I'd be buying if I had any spare - £5 is likely before the half year, possibly even before June.

According to the Pink Sheet, South African coal averaged $294.40 per tonne in March, and $219.80 for the quarter Jan-March.

Assuming we're still only on 14mt pa, FOB of $54, and discount of 16%, that's still $235m EBITDA for March alone, and ~$500m for Q1.

"Is a yield of 9% repasonable?", asks rRcht9999.

Very reason indeed, I'd have thought, although Río is paying more, or was until recent rises.

Also, the 91p divi payable in May is not the only divi we're likely to get this year. They didn't pay an interim last year, partly on the reasonable grounds that they'd only been trading independently for a month in the half year results. That won't apply this year, so an interim of 60p-£1.20 in the autumn is perfectly possible. In which case 9% might give a share price of £20 or more.

I'm in for a few with the last of this year's divis. Not going to be a multi bagger any time soon, but feels like a good price to come in at, with steady divis and an intention to hold for 10 years+

Diamondman was unlucky buying Anglo in 2008, when the price ranged between £35 and £15. Assuming his entry was £20, 100% capital return in 14 years is not good - 5% compound annual growth, not counting divis (which fluctuated massively). I was fortunate to get most of my Anglos almost exactly 2 years ago at the covid trough at mostly about £12, and they're now £40. And without them I'd never have got into Thungela, so the total return has been very pleasant. TGA could easily double again this year, assuming an interim divi in October-November of a similar "shooting the lights out" level to May's.

Total dividends including specials for 2021 were $10.40, just under £8 at today's exchange, so 15% at today's share price. Assumption is that this year's (2022's) dividends (interim, final and any specials) won't be quite as much, otherwise the share price would be higher.

@kennynwten yes, the xd day was 3 March. Do you really think investing in shares is for you if you don't understand fundamentals like the effect of a share going x?

Thungela has had a good run but may have more to go