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I would guess more than that, but emphasis on the word guess. It would still have to get through phase 3 and 4 too remember

Guess this drop is either because they know good results are coming and want your share or they know results are terrible and they want out - take your pick on which conspiracy theory is more likely

I guess the concern with the share at the moment is that their results won't coincide with the NIH results (or even possibly that they lied in their results!) but I don't really see that as being realistic. I used to be of the opinion that third-party verification wouldn't make much difference to the SP but the longer it draws out the more I think it will have a very large impact.

I've been trying to find clear stats on the percentage of drugs that make it past various stages but a clear figure has been difficult. Has anyone got them? Would be especially good to limit it to the UK and to exclude cancer drugs which I know bring stats down.

I found some US stats, not sure how they compare:
Statistically the greatest number of drugs fail at phase 2: approx 31%.
58% of drugs entering stage 3 will go on to seek FDA approval
85% of those will get it.
60% of clinical trial costs are on Phase 3.

*If* those figures are broadly representative of the situation in the UK then the chance of final approval is ~50% multiplied by the whatever you feel is the chance it will pass the NIH trial. I realise phase 3 will not be done alone, but that is surely a forgone conclusion if phase 2 is as much of a success as the current results suggest.

What price to put on an all-concurring flu drug? I guess the skies the limit for that but I also guess HVO or at least the drug itself, will be sold off long before we find that out.

DL tweeting that, knowing the affect he personally has on the share price and his publicly-known holding of UKOG makes me think he has sold up and is looking either for a cheaper entry point, or is actively shorting the share. The idea of that is worrying given his proximity to it all.

I do agree with Investor1111 here a little, AIM. Your posts used to be nothing but mature, insighful, and informative and have slowly descended into childish posts about moon shoots, drinking and ramping with no real content I know you think it is helping the share but generally has the opposite effect I find.

Seen a few good sized buys today, £132.61k at 10:51 fro example. Tell-tale that all the big ones are multiples of 10,000 shares.

It worries me that people are investing their hard earned money yet still ask questions like this!

Headancer you can;t have been on AIM very long if you ask that! probably half the bloody shares on here half gone up or down four fold in a year at some point.

Some huge volumes there, spencer

With these big buys and the over subscribed placing at 15p im really having to stop myself buying more at 15.1...

I really do think there is something major going on behind the scenes here, we are back over 1.40 with considerable support for a lot of sells earlier today. I think *general* PI sentiment today will have been cautious at best, so I think a bigger player is loading up here. Will be fascinating to see where this is at by the weekend.

Haha, Yes i assumed they were the same person too, constant use of the same phrases like "pre-bercheva" and similar writing styles, but not sure it matters at the end of the day

I think you are getting the RNS a bit muddled, Digibyte

No one else finding the lack of SP movement in the last hour interesting? Good volume but no movement, I feel something going on behind the scenes

31-Jul-18
11:14
621.87k?!

haha sorry ignore that! Had a couple of boards open and was looking at the wrong share

31-Jul-18
11:14
621.87k?!

SP holding up really well in the face of quite a few large sells, does make me think one of the big boys is soaking up everything behind the scenes

This is such a complicated situation, stressful day ahead! Even I'm tempted to reduce my holding a bit here until we see what on earth is going on tomorrow.

BTC/Ebioss attempt to get shares cheap? Bring out an RNS a couple of days later saying that a larger deal has been made between them?