Member Info for MarketGunslinger

"Well a lot better then an all out no... But should have been submitted months ago."

Given that Tiapia was only formally acquired by Zen on May 5th https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ZEN/completion-of-tilapia-acquisition-aepfe9adzs481gl.html how on earth should everything have been submitted months ago?

We know from the Zenith twitter feed that AC has been out in the Congo since at least June 19th and this is in a time period where commercial travel has been extremely difficult due to Covid.

I am not sure how much quicker you expect Zenith to go in the middle of the Covid pandemic. It has taken a mere 6 weeks from the acquisition of the asset to AC being in face-to-face negotiations with the relevant governmental officials in Brazzaville and in the same time period the company have also announced:

1) The finalisation of the purchase of Sidi El Kilani
2) Their participation on the Nigerian marginal fields round bid
3) The handover of the CRA to SOCAR in Azerbaijan
4) Their participation in a new JV in the Congo
5) The raising of funds to cover costs associated with these projects.

I think that to say that Zenith is going too slowly with the extension of the Tiliapia license is a ridiculous accusation. They seem to be going pretty quickly and having substantial success IMO. After all, if the Congo govt wanted to take the license away from Zen then they would not have agreed that they would have the PCA - they just would have taken the license away from them.

Also, the news that "negotiations are nearing a conclusion with regards to defining a payment plan for the repayment of the US$5.3 million debt owed by Société Nationale des Pétroles du Congo to AAOG Congo." is fantastic. It may even keep Kelsbells happy in the near future!

I'm glad you are so informed Papa9911 - would you like to give us more details on the specifications and capabilities of the BD260 rig to prove that you are not making your knowledge up?

Papa9911 - How is the High Court action against the former directors of AAOG going. Have the fraud squad and Scotland Yard come up with any smoking guns yet?

AAOG were an abject mess of a company and I find it hilarious how one of the ex-executives keeps coming onto this board to tell us how to do things properly when he was one of the major contributors to turning a company with a £30 million market cap to a shell.

This is the same person who was here on May 1st claiming that ZEN: “need $35 million by July, and ned to show a balance sheet to support the work programme, which to bring Tilapia into production is at least $20million”. So apparently Zenith have absolutely no chance of getting the license extension because they do not have a balance sheet showing $55 million. Basically It just seems like it is being made up as we go along. If that is how AAOG conducted business in the Congo I can see why they annoyed the SNPC so much and why the govt must feel well rid of them.

I agree with Calit 100%. I fully expect the license to be extended. I expect a chunk of the $5.3 million that is owed to be written off to pay for the signature bonus and I then expect terms to be agreed for the repayment of the rest. It is not in dispute that the money is owed and with the IMF having given the Congo a $448.6 million credit line just one year ago on July 11th 2020 the country has to be very careful to operate properly and pay off debts that are owed otherwise they run the very real risk of this line of credit being pulled. Why would you risk a $450million line of credit in order to not pay a $5.3 million bill? You wouldn’t especially when you can write off some of the $5.3 against the signature bonus and agree reasonable payment terms for the rest.

AC is clearly confident that we will get the license extended and continue to have a good working relationship with the Congolese authorities as he is already pursuing other small projects in the area.

There has been nothing that has happened in the last few weeks and months that has made me doubt in the slightest that everything in on track for the Tilapia license renewal. But we shall find out within the next 5 days as July 18th approaches.

Kels, sorry I was getting slightly mixed up between your post and Ezhiks – I quite agree that you did not say he had been gifted the shares.

I agree that he believed that he thought Azer would be a success but as I have said repeatedly, I think that one of the things that nobody could have predicted about Azer was how poor the datasets for the wells turned out to be and how much worse condition they were in than originally predicted.

I do think that he made a mistake by putting all of Zen’s eggs in the one Azer basket and underestimated how difficult and expensive the Azerbaijan authorities were going to be to a company that they knew were effectively a captive audience. However, I would say that this lesson has clearly been learned and is why they are buying in existing production assets in multiple jurisdictions at the moment.

As to the purchases, if you look at the figures I put out earlier you will see that he bought 30% of his shareholding (17 million) since December 29th 2019 as opposed to the other 70% (44 million) since September 2017.

In terms of cash you are not far wrong in that he spent 85% of his money prior to this year and 15% in the first 6 months of 2020. This is obviously because the share price has fallen due to lack of success in Azer. However, even in cash terms there only a small difference in the amount purchased – on a pro-rata basis over the six half year periods starting Aug 2017 he previously spent on average £270,000 per half year and in the first 6 months of this year he had spent £230,758 until May so this is still 85% of what he had spent on average in the rest of the time.

What I am trying to say is that the only reason he spent 85% of his money before we were in Africa is because we have only been in Africa for 6 months. The average spend is still almost the same. Does that make sense?

Kelsbells - As I think you may have read in my post on May 26th I went through all of the RNS releases relating to directors dealings for AC. It took a while but has now given me an excel sheet which I can refer to for easy answers to his share purchases.

We know AC owns 52,184,115 shares. He bought 41,778,954 of them between the 27th September 2017 and the 7th August 2019. These cost him a total of £1,351,155. He also transferred away or sold 3,160,000 during this time period.

Between the 27th December 2019 and he 4th May 2020 he purchased a further 17,501,155 shares and paid a further £230,758 for these. He transferred 1,500,000 away in this time period.

So the idea that AC stopped buying shares after Zenith decided to focus on Africa instead of Azerbaijan is not correct – he has bought £230,758 worth of shares in the last 7 months, which is pretty much the same rate at which he has always bought.

Secondly the idea that he is being gifted shares and not paying for them is also nonsense. Taking shares instead of salary still costs you and most of his purchases have been for cash anyway. By the rational that some here have offered everybody ‘s employer buys their shares in any company because their wages pay for the purchases. It’s just nonsensical.

The long and the short of it is that AC has handed over £1.5 million of his own money (salary sacrifice, placings and on-market purchases) to acquire his 52 million shareholding in Zenith. This is a damned site more than most small cap CEO’s hold in their companies and is a massive statement of faith in what is coming next for Zenith.

Q: MarketGunslinger are you AC's son?
A: No I am not. I am simply an investor here who has done his research and I believe in the fact that Zenith has a bright future.

I do not believe in censorship and I very much enjoy having detailed discussions on the shares in which I am invested. If people make good points then I act on them and sometimes even change my mind. However, I do not take the slightest bit seriously posts from people that are simply mindlessly ramping or deramping.

Carlosan, thank you for your comments and I look forward to discussing the Zen with you more in the future. I am not going to chip in with my opinion on the question you asked Ehik yet as you directed it to him but after he has replied I will definitely contribute to the conversation.

Carlosan - I agree 100% with everything you say. No posts should be removed from here at all unless incredibly offensive.

I was engaged in an argument on the CHAL board with two disgusting posters Alan2017 and Rastuss who appeared to think that it was funny to make jokes comparing rape victims to donkeys. The posts were deleted when people (including myself) complained but I think that it was a mistake to do this as people now believe that they are normal posters, whereas if their messages had been left up the entire site would have been able to see what truly disgusting individuals they actually are.

Not only do I believe that it should not have been removed but I am going to repost it under here, so that it stays.

Carlosan - I never saw Fiah's post yesterday and I certainly never complained about it. However, I can see why it was deleted. Like every post I have seen from Fiah it is complete nonsense.

Fiah claims to be challenging me but actually all he does is post unsubstantiated negative posts about the company because he does not like the board (I assume because he has lost money in Zenith).

Fiah is the person who keeps claiming that Zen will be taken private but his only evidence of this is that he thinks it and he doesn't like the board.

Like I said yesterday, this board seems to be plagued by many alleged long term holders who no longer have a holding in zen and just pop up every few weeks to criticise the company. I am happy to debate with anyone who has done their research but just turning round and saying "Still believe this will go private after delisting" with no evidence whatsoever is just mindless deramping.

I am sorry Fiah has lost money, but why he (or anyone else) thinks that investing in this share at under 1 penny and now it has diversified its operations throughout Africa is the same as spending 10p to buy into a one-trick pony that was only allowed to exist at the whim of the Azerbaijan government is a mystery to me. This is clearly a much better investment opportunity now than it was back in 2017.

Again, as I said yesterday: to pretend that there is no chance of Zenith being successful in Africa because they were unsuccessful in Azerbaijan is completely misleading to all new investors.

Finally, why is it that whenever you do any research on these boards and defend an investment against mindless derampers do you get accused of being part of the company.

I have been accused of being David Sefton on the AAOG board - which I am not.

I have been accused of being Jonathan Tidswell-Pretorious on the CHAL board - which I am not (though this was by a quite odious character called rastuss who makes constant jokes about rape victims and seems to have mental health issues).

Now I have been accused of being AC's son here - which I am also not.

At least with Kelsbells, although we may not agree he is actually invested in the company and he argues his point with reason. How many of the mindless derampers here are even still invested and how many are just blaming AC for the fact that they lost money on their Zenith investments?

This board seems to be plagued by many alleged long term holders who no longer have a holding in zen and just pop up every few weeks to criticise the company.

It is in no way misleading for new private investors to be positive. The failures in Azer are also no indication of Zenith's potential in Africa and the acquisition of production assets spread over a wide geographical area is a good indication that the company is fixing some of the problems that it had in the past.

The big issue is that the workover wells is Azerbaijan could not bet gotten to flow properly because of poor well conditions and dodgy data. This is oil and gas. It happens. Look at what has happened to UKOG at Horse Hill - the oil is there but they are struggling to get it out in commercial quantities. At least Zenith have had the sense to get out of an area that is not working and stop splashing money on it - unlike UKOG.

Zenith have also addressed the big problem of them having all of their eggs in one basket with everything being in Azerbaijan. This left them open to the whims of a single state and also the problems of operating in a single location. They have definitely learned from this and it is no coincidence that they are looking at acquiring production assets in different countries so that they are no caught by the issue again. They also still have all of the exploration upside in Azerbaijan and I think that even the most bitter of long-term holders will agree that it was the exploration side that they brought in for rather than the workover of existing wells to bring out a few dozen extra barrels.

Now ZEN has acquired Tilapia for additional exploration upside and they are also looking at acquiring more production in Gabon and Congo and more exploration in Nigeria.

This company is very clearly a different operation than it was a number of years ago. All the eggs are definitely no longer in one basket, and it’s assets are clearly structures in a way that makes the company a much less risky proposition and gives it far more chance of success.

To pretend that there is no chance of Zenith being successful in Africa because they were unsuccessful in Azerbaijan is completely misleading to all new investors.

fiah you are also the person who keeps claiming that ZEN will be taken private with no evidence whatsoever.

It is YOUR behaviour that is a disgrace, trying to deramp this share based only on your own prejudices.

Are you even invested here?

fiah - you are not challenging me, you are simply making unsubstantiated statements based on your own opinion and no evidence.

I am more than happy to discuss the future of the company but you have to be a little more eloquent in your critique - how have I misled anyone?

Next news will definitely be the license renewal for Tilapia IMO. The fact that they have partnered with a local company is a sign that the license renewal is already done and dusted and this would fit in with the information that BrokermanDaniel put out last week.

Its an interesting move going in for a JV in the Congo. It seems a clear sign that Brokerman Dan was right and the license for Tilapia is going to be renewed otherwise there would be no point in taking on a small project of this nature.

I also like the comment in the RNS about AC's presence in Point Noire having "facilitated access to a number of compelling domestic opportunities". It all points to the idea that Zenith are going to acquire a number of other small production assets and put together a reasonable revenue stream for very little money. This one may only be 150 bopd but you put a few of them together and they all add up.

Onwards and Upwards.

Kels, come on - look at the timelines and it is pretty obvious if you simply take of the anti-zen blinkers for a minute.

December 27th 2019 - Zenith announce initial agreement to acquire 80% of AAOGC for £1 million.
January 13th 2020 - Zenith makes available a loan to AAOG for £250k (deal all going ahead as normal).
February 26th 2020 - Zenith announces that they have begun negotiations for a drilling rig in the Congo (deal all going ahead as normal)..
March – Covid Happens – shares and oil price crash etc.
24th March 2020 – Zenith announces that they have renegotiated the Tilapia deal and dropping the price to £800,000 cash (the original deal is not going ahead as normal).
17th April 2020 – Zenith announces the acquisition is now for 100% of AAOGC for £200,000 (the deal is completely different from the original)
5th Amy 2020 – Zenith announce that the Tllapia deal is completed.

So between December and February when the original deal looks like it is going ahead as originally planned Zenith are discussing a drilling rig. Then Covid hits and while it may not have caused a complete shutdown of the Congo for the last three months it certainly shut it for a bit. It also meant that everything was up in the air and there was no point in booking a rig that they may not be able to use.

Finally, Covid completely changed the terms of the deal. Zenith were clearly not going to continue on the original terms and would have walked away if they had not renegotiated so they would not have needed the rig.

So, it’s all pretty obvious why the rig fell by the wayside isn’t it? I for one would certainly rather have an extra £800,000 in the bank account than a rig booked for a date we may not be able to use it for so hats off to AC for that.

Now we are in a position that we definitely will not book a rig in until the license has been renewed, so I would look forward to that bit of good news only after the license is already announced.

It's not overly surprising that signing a 20 year plus extension to a potentially extremely valuable oil license takes longer than a couple of days Kels.

When you consider that Zenith only acquired Tilapia less than two months ago and that Andrea only arrived in the Congo for discussions on June 19th according to twitter I think that it is extremely naive to think that this will all be sorted within two weeks just because you want it to reach a 1.5p price so you can sell out.

You were complaining that the company had not received the whole $5.3 million from the SNCP within days of them acquiring AAOG Congo for $200k as well. I honestly think that you need to temper your expectations a little. We are clearly getting there and the license is clearly going to be renewed but stamping your feet and yelling "I want 1.5p NOW" is not going to help.

1.5p and higher is definitely coming but we are looking at a timeframe of months not days. I realise that you have been a holder here for years and want out, and that is absolutely fair enough, but considering how long you have been here then a few months more will not hurt will it?

Zen are clearly moving in the right direction and newsflow is imminent as the license extension has to be sorted this month. Just be patient for a while longer.

Nothing unexpected in yesterday's RNS to anyone who is following the small caps market. They are all doing it - nothing to see here.

Here's hoping that we get Brokerman Daniel's license extension news soon...

I largely agree with Barnyards' interpretation below.

From all of the hints that have been dropped in previous RNS releases about new production assets being acquired in Tunisia and the potential Gabon assets on the horizon I think that everything is pointing at the fact that the purchases of these will be serviced by debt.

Servicing acquisitions by debt is a great way to do it when the share price is low as long as you can service the debt acquired. Hence why I think that all of Zenith's attention is on acquiring production assets at the moment.

Anyway, all in all, this is yet another piece of good news in showing us how things are going to be done going forwards.

In terms of the exploration side of things I am very interested to get confirmation of BMD's news that the Tilapia license extension has been secured - and with a bit of luck also confirmation that the SNPC will start paying back the $5.3 million - which will go a not inconsiderable way to funding the Congo exploration upside.

Cash in, loss-making asset out. Just another part of what seems like a constant stream of good news just now.

Congo license extension next please and, perhaps, some news on funds from the SNPC money to make Kelsbells happy!

On what possible basis do you think that this will go private, or is this just a random deramp?