Member Info for marineclark

Price has dipped to 4.6p back in Nov 23, for no longer than a week, then bounced. I see range of support from 4.6p to 5p.

Lets see how things play out here. Markets are forward looking so, things should be looking up from here.

If you left click the chart and hold you'll be able to drag the chart around to see all of it more easily.

Not sure if this is going to show my trendlines and annotations but here goes:

https://yhoo.it/43bZNyQ

In the the date range at the bottom select 1 year and interval 1 day, then click on the zoom out bottom to see the whole chart with all my trendlines.

If this works, you should see that the downtrend has ended and the price is currently in a sideways trend, with price just touching a potential triple bottom support. Expecting a bounce up shortly and then a breakout above 9p will confirm an uptrend.

Sounds like a few here are on the verge of going postal....

As I've said many times before, price is in a zone of strong support. I would be buying not selling. If support were to break decisively then I would be selling but not a moment before.

Fair value is 11p, price is 4.8p. So buying now stands to gain +100 percent profits. If i had a crystal ball I could pinpoint the exact day when those profits fall from the trees on to your lap, but I don't.

Once the seller overhang has fully cleared, nothing else will be holding this back. Monthly trading volumes average 80 million. it will take a bit of time.... not too long though.

Chartwise, price looks to be holding at support. Note that strong weekly moves up have regularly been around 30 percent, so when the move does eventually happen, one could miss it quite easily.

I like these kind of trades, especially with 25k annual production of copper on the horizon, derisking my investment here. it was barely 9p a few months ago, and now is 4.8p. Timing the bottom is difficult, because for one thing there is only one bottom, but the safest time to buy is around support levels, which is now.

the ramp-up of copper production and chrome production is expected to have a material impact on jubilee’s fortunes in our view as it returns to growth, but this time across two countries and two different commodity suites. we see copper and chrome having a robust outlook; copper as it’s part of the energy transition connecting all things electrical and chrome as it provides corrosion and strength to steel and we expect ongoing increases in infrastructure spending as china provides economic stimulus. just to reiterate: jubilee is not overly exposed to mining risk with the majority of its material from existing at-surface material or via low-risk open pits; jubilee has a unique processing capability and many solutions to recover originally lost metals; jubilee is now on a growth path with multiple strands to its organic growth, and we should begin to see the benefit of this over fy25 and onwards.

wet your knot

03/10/2024

10:00 jubilee has multiple strands in zambia all of which will propel it to be a mid-tier copper producer from material which others have chosen to walk over; jubilee is producing new copper from perceived waste. we continue to see an 11p/sh fair value, pending a review of our model.

wet your knot

03/10/2024

09:57 hxxps://*********************/companies/uk/jubilee-metals-group-plc/research/zeus-capital/jubilee-metals-jlp-ln-audited-results-for-fy24-june-/d19c0785-7dc4-4392-a47b-6ff459e09792

I read on the other forum that some folks are suffering drawdowns of half a million, and even a million on JLP. So yes timing does matter.

JSE was disappointment for me. I got sucked into the story, and bought on the way down and sold when it triggered my stops, several times, and when I thought it had stablised it plunged again. It did recover somewhat, but by then I had had enough and walked away for good on that one.

I've traded JLP, several times in the past and have made some good returns. Hoping for a repeat. May hold for 6 months or longer. Will see.

Kalan, I would wish you good luck, but I've got a feeling that holders at this price will be laughing all the way to bank before too long.

35 million shares were traded last week, with Friday alone at 10.58million shares traded , and the price open and closed that week the same, i.e a doji. A doji at support levels with volume, indicates a potential trend reversal. This is only the second doji in five months, the first not being at support levels

Volume traded today is minsucle at only 308,000 since 2.45pm. One thing is for certain, the seller is gone for today. Maybe the selling team are off to las vegas for a few days.

However, this could be the last time to load at these prices, as the sale won't last forever.

Annoying bug here, cursor keeps disappears after typing a few words.....

Kalan,

3 million warrants valued at £120,000. With respect, that amount of dilution is even worth a mention? The size will have no bearing on the price, and will definatelt not dilute the price down to 4p, which you seem to think it might.

I agree, there's nothing wrong in waiting before buying in until the results come out as its imminent, just to be safe, for those who are extra cautious, but with a P/E ratio of 13(2024) and P/E ratio of 7.5(2025), If price stays the same for another year, it would be twice as cheap as it now.

there is no guarantee where the price is going to go. Price is holding well at current support. yes it dipped to 4.5 p in Nov 2023, but that lasted only a week.

Curent support looks to be holding, and strong volumes indicate strong support at these levels.

"Exciting new partnership in Zambia

In Zambia, Jubilee is in the process of upgrading its Sable copper refinery and Roan concentrator to expand Sable’s capacity. It makes sense to do so as the group’s growing copper activities in the country increased revenue by 23 per cent to £6.3mn and reported 66 per cent higher gross profit of £2mn in the first half.

Furthermore, Jubilee is finalising due diligence on a new partnership with Abu Dhabi's International Resources Holdings (IRH) to develop the 'Waste Rock Project' in Zambia to process 260mn tonnes of copper-containing waste rock. It will provide the group with a 30 per cent position in one of Zambia's largest waste rock dumps, as well as a management contract to design, implement and operate the project.

The plan is to target annual production of 24,000 tonnes of copper units at a cost below $4,000 per tonne, or less than half the current spot copper price. Although IRH will provide the $50mn capital required by the partnership, Jubilee raised £13mn (at 5.5p per share) in an oversubscribed placing in December 2023. This was mainly to fund the initial payment of $1.75mn, due under the agreement for the acquisition of the copper waste rock dump, progress resource and process design ($4.5m) and expand the sulphide recovery circuits at its Sable refinery to accommodate increased sulphide concentrate production from newly acquired projects ($5.7m)."

Feb 2024, IC

Copper is projected to rise to 15k in the next 2-3 years.

"The plan is to target annual production of 24,000 tonnes of copper units at a cost below $4,000 per tonne, or less than half the current spot copper price", according to ST in the feb 2024 IC article.

Wheter selling ends today or next month, I seriously doubled 5p will be the price in 6 months let alone 2-3 years. It doubled in 2-3 weeks in April, and when selling is over, the price should be able to sustain future rises. My plan is to buy at or newar the lows , which i have done, and to put my feet up, and just enjoy the ride. Not so easy to relax if one had bought at the top, but it should be some comfort to know that copper is going up in the long term and so is copper production here.

225 million shares at 5.00p is valued at 11 million vs a market cap of 150 million. I would't be losing sleep over Fil's selling even if it does take them a year or two to fully offload....

Some good news and buyesr will be flooding back in, as they did soon after Feb 2024 when price doubled. Got a good feeling the price will be lot higher when the next set of results are released...

On Jubilee's website, FIL Investment International have 227,302,271 shares left since 16th september 2024. DOn't know if the sustainability fund is a subsection of amount or all of it, but if it is all then may take a few months to clear it all.

Looking at monthly volumes traded in JLP, highest was 104 million in March 2024 and 115 million in April 2024. So best case its possible we could have another 2 months at current prices. Volumes ranging around 60-80 million shares traded per month in other less busy months so add a few more months. However, with some good news we may see a surge in volume that clears the holdings much faster. Simon thompson's next update is due soon, as he regualary posts on this, and probably will update around the next earnings report, so not long.

Superb opportunity to fill up though i must say,as when the selling is over, I see easy money on the table.

HI Kalan,

Except for a week or two, every week since May has been a red(down) week, so yes there has been a big seller drip selling all the way down to current support. The price has dipped briefly below current price, albeit for no longer than a week. so unless one wants to time it perfectly, I'm happy to take a position about now, for what at least a 10:1 reward/risk trade.

Its difficult to price the exact value of assets unless one is an analyst with all the data at hand not to mention the expertise neccasary, so I'l leave that for the experts, but in general, when there is an impending turnaround in earnings especially after a long downtrend, the price sooner or later follows, most of the time at least. The analysts price target is 11p, and the fact that price can be so volatile when the fundamentals appear unchanged, is the reason why I rely on my charts for short term timing, and fundamentals for long term gain. Copper's price is also predicted to rise for years to come, which reduces the risk of taking a position here even more.

Hopefully support will hold at current levels.

Here's a snippet of the articles by ST posted on February 2024.

"Low rating points to a profitable outcome

Factoring in the additional revenue contributions from multiple project initiatives, analyst Paul Smith at brokerage WH Ireland expects full-year pre-tax profit to rise a fifth to £15mn on 27 per cent higher revenue of £182mn, ramping up to £32.5mn and £222mn, respectively, in the 12 months to 30 June 2025. On this basis, the shares are rated on price/earnings (PE) ratios of 13 (2024) and 7.5 (2025).

Clearly, there is execution risk, and it’s only fair to say that investors have been disappointed in the past. However, with the shares offering more than 100 per cent to WH Ireland’s fair value estimate of 11p a share, the potential for Jubilee to double earnings in the 2024-25 financial year is simply not in the price. So, having last rated the shares a hold, at 5.8p, at the annual results (‘Lower metal prices hit this miner – but shares are lowly rated’, 25 October 2023), I am upgrading my rating to buy."

They have a 3 month Alpha for 12 quid deal going on right now, if you want to read the full article, for price conscious readers.

Now, while ST tips don't always move the share price and sometimes negatively, the Feb post was followed by a doubling in the share price which one could have banked before the inevitable dump that followed and bought back in at suport around 5.0p which is the price right now. I bought back in last week or two, and am happy to wait for this to double again. The trend is currently moving sideways, after spending about 3 years in a long term downtrend, and breaking that downtrend recently by no longer breaking down into new lows, assuming support holds. The price cycle is usually downtrend, followed by sideways trend, then uptrend, and imo now would be a good time to take a long position. DYOR.

I'm in. The charts look good. A rising uptrend, currently consolidating. Volume is confirming of an uptrend. I no longer try to bottom fish shares in a downtrend, it works sometimes but have been burnt too many times that its not worth the risk.

Revenues set to double, earnings to rise, plenty of cash in the bank, whats not to like. The crowd is still in the dark, but that is the best time to buy before the crowd does.

DYOR.

80 mmscfd = 14,179 boe/d

https://www.convert-me.com/en/convert/energy/mscfgas/mscfgas-to-boe.html?u=mscfgas&v=80

Some much needed good news. who knows when Aktara is done, price could be back to 40p again.