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10:07 jubilee metals – q2 “operational and projects update”, buy

metals processing in africa group, jubilee metals (jlp) has issued a “operational and projects update q2 fy2024”-titled announcement including noting some impact from logistics constraints at ports across south africa though also some increased production elsewhere.

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summary reiterates buy rating with initial target of 18p.

Price for 3 daily candle sessions from last friday did appear to be trying to stablise, but alas price is resuming its fall. I can see where the next support level is but rather not say as it looks depressing.

For now at least, JSE has made a right fool of me again. But it has taught me a valuable lesson which I thought I had taken in the last time, but obviously not; it has now been shoved in much harder and deeper this time around. I think I will only trade in shares that are in a confirmed uptrend, and definately not in a downtrend, or in a sideways trend that hasnt broken out yet as is this case here. The problem with being in shares which are not in a confirmed uptrend is that they can spend literally years trying to dig itself out of the hole, and the opportunity cost of holding such shares can be huge. That does place more emphasis on screening shares for the right setup, which is easily done using Stockopedia which I use. Just need to stay disciplined from now.

As for JSE, i will just hold until it recovers. Aktara will be the next catalyst as well as a rising oil price, and the wait is not long away. Barring more bad news, and I dont say that lightly, the increase in production and diversification that it will bring should being back some sense to the share price. For some reason, oil & gas shares on AIM have been punished recently, and shares such as JOG and CHAR after getting there farmouts, have nosedived also. I wonder if brexit has permanently damaged the UK Stock markets, as I have never seen sentiment so trashed on AIM in my decades of trading it.

We are living in the age of super fast internet. Is there any reason why the videos posted are 2 months out of date? Just fly a cheap drone up there and post it online, shouldn't take more than a few days

In AIM, placements are the norm so no point worrying about it. I wouldn't rule it out in the future. Better that then going into adminstration - case in point check out IOG. Unlike some other AIM shares though, who regularly raise funds via equity, JSE hardly ever does, and last year seems to be the exception rather than the rule. They don't need to most of the time as they are a producer, and are generating large amounts of revenue. still, I was concerned last year with how much and how fast cash was being burnt last year.

Cash in the bank as of 31st of December was $154 million + 43 millon left to draw in RBL, $200 million in total. That leaves much leeway before another placement is required in case of another big loss in production. But the risk of downtime is much less as more assests diversifed come on , including Akatara.

Production currently 20,000 boe/d, and atakara online soon. Oil price rising. Lots of positives this year...

Must admit, I didn't like the look of the triple bottom support breakdown last week but I thought fundamentals here would act as some suppport, but it seems that was wishful thinking. Don't like where this is heading in the short term, but should be ok in the medium/long term here. Char and JOG are also getting hammered - they arent producers though.

and.... brent now $81

oil rises 2% on supply disruptions in russia, u.s.

by erwin seba

january 22, 20249:15 pm gmtupdated an hour ago

views of total grandpuits oil refinery

the chimneys of the total grandpuits oil refinery are seen just after sunset, southeast of paris, france, march 1, 2021. reuters/christian hartmann acquire licensing rights, opens new tab

summary

companies

ukrainian drone strike on novatek terminal worries markets

north dakota oil output down 20% because of cold weather

s&p 500 closes with record high for 2nd session in row

houston, jan 22 (reuters) - oil prices rose about 2% on monday on concerns over global energy supplies following a ukrainian drone strike on russia's novatek (nvtk.mm), opens new tab fuel terminal and as extreme cold weather continued to hamper u.s. crude production.

brent march crude futures settled at $80.06 a barrel, up $1.50, or 1.9%.

front-month u.s. west texas intermediate crude futures contract (wti) for february delivery closed at $75.19, up $1.78, or 2.4%, as the contract expired. the more active march wti contract , was up $1.36 at $74.61.

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"there are finally concerns in the market about genuine supply disruptions," said john kilduff, partner at again capital llc, citing the drone strike that idled portions of the novatek terminal.

severe cold weather across the u.s. is limiting crude oil output in north dakota, as well hampering production in other states, said phil *****, analyst with price future group.

over 20% of output in the third largest oil producing state remained shut in on monday after being halved last week by extreme cold weather and operational challenges, north dakota's pipeline authority said.

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***** added that stock markets continue to gain, pointing to greater demand in the coming months.

"pessimism about the economy is going away," he said.

the benchmark s&p 500 scaled a fresh record high, extending a bull run into a new week on a boost from megacap and chip stocks.

there are no signs of respite in israel’s offensive in gaza while attacks by iran-aligned houthis on commercial vessels in the red sea have continued despite retaliatory measures from the united states.

still, oil fundamentals could continue to drag on prices, according to ig analyst tony sycamore.

oil production is higher while the growth outlook in china and europe is mixed and data this week is expected to show u.s. economic growth has slowed considerably, he said.

"investors want to be bullish, but tepid data and a cautious narrative from policymakers keep them on the back foot," said tamas varga of oil broker pvm.

the latest demand growth forecasts by the u.s. energy information administration, the international energy agency and the organization of the petroleum exporting countries for 2024 range between 1.24 million and 2.25 million barrels per day, though all three organisations expect demand growth to slow

Correction, my charts was a little slow to update, still a bullish piercing, though it would be better if the candles were bigger.

My apologies there Kalan. In AIM, timing is everything, given the volatility. If its any consolation I'm down almost that much too. But you did do your research so you know what you are doing obviously.

At least you left some powder dry to take advantage of the cliff edge drop. The volumes today is tiny and has dropped considerable compared to the last 4 days, meaning the sellers have gone. The close today was actaully a bullish engulfing after all.. next week will be interesting ..

Not to worry Frogboy, your missus said last night there's no chance of my ammo running out any time lol.

...the sanctions on Russian energy has really hurt the EU and UK, more than its has Russia, and the rise in inflation has no doubt made those consumers poorer, reducing the deman for new cars and keeping used car prices elevated....

This is from IC september 2023, for another share:

"The projected recovery in profits is supported by strong vehicle sales growth across all global regions, a positive for rhodium demand in the autocatalyst, elevated used car prices keeping a lid on recycling, and an end of destocking of rhodium and platinum by manufacturers of glass fibre."

It may be concidental, but the Price of Rhodium having peaked around march/April 2022, started nosediving around the time of the Russian/Ukraine war; Ukraine's ammo is expected to run out by April 2024, which will be officially game over for Ukraine, not that the news will admit that of course. It could mark the beginnings of a recovery in Rhodium though....

Herman, 3 days of panic selling is now over. The gap down on 31/July is now filled, and should act as support going forward. Regardless of newsthere was always going to be downward pressure to fill the gap sooner or later, so the selling did have a technical element to it. The strength of the selling did catch me unawares however, such that my mental stop loss wasnt triggered, but I'm diversified so paper loss is still relatively small.

Paper loss or not, I would always sell if I thought the medium/long term outlook was negative, which I don't see here. Production, assuming Akatara goes as planned, and the increased share of CWLH stake to 30 percent to complete this quarter, could potential see close to 30,000 boe/d by year end.

I can see the long term plan here, and diversifation of assests is the key, so that any one asset downtime will have no longer have a material impact on the share price, as in the case with Montara going forward.

This is an excellent post from ashkv on advfn website:

"My estimates on JSE field value if sold piecemeal / individual asset basis.

MONTARA (H1 23 Premium to Brent $1.5) - US$50 million (Economic value given remediation and 7,000 boe/d, Reserve Value)

STAG (H1 23 Premium to Brent $16) - 0 value

CWLH (Brent) - US175 million (Recent purchase price)

PENMAL (H1 23 Premium to Brent $3.5) - US$ 200 million (Conservative given increased 2p) (lower Decom costs)

SINPHUHORM (Indexed Gas Sale Price) - US$40 million (Recent purchase price)

AKATARA (Fixed Price $31.36 per boe)- US$150 million (Lower than project cost)

Total Sum of Parts US$ 660 million

Or 90p per share - funny that I came up with the same value ascribed by PB as an easily attainable sale price for JSE per my own estimates...

Net Debt Year End 2023 US$ 5 million"

...50 percent pullback from 40p resistance is 30p....

Roxi, its always better to buy on the way up than on the way down. I see plenty of suppport around current levels, particularly as price is near gap support and also the Oct/Nov triple bottom. Pattern now emerging appears to be a reactangle, a side ways pattern, with bottom around 28.5p, and top around 39.5,A 35 percent potential profit for swing traders. Multi year lows are 20p, and a 50 percent pullback from 40p recent highs is not uncommon for pullbacks, Once the selling is done, I see price recovery ahead. It will take time, but not too long what with Akatara and a potential extra 6000 boep/d around the corner.

...I think its mostly profit taking from 20p level short term buyers. To be fair, progress is good. Last 4 weeks, production is close to 20,000 boe/d. Akatara, is within touching distance of the finishing line. The price drop was overdone yesterday. Current price is around support levels, but all my cash is tied up. Reminder to me, to leave some spare cash for the dips.

Price has dropped back to Oct/Nov support of 28.5p. Good place to buy at support levels. Hopefully should see a bounce back fairly soon.

...price has fallen steeply today , but at least its now near support near triple bottom support. I don't see the point selling around this price.

This shares has a nasty habit of shafting the buttyhole not once but time and time again. One day I really hope it can deliver some good news without crapping all over it.

Legache, they do say that 70 is the new 50 :)

Another 5 years should do the trick, but that is too long a hold for me anyway. I''ll be be happy for the 2/3 bagger within a year or two, but I'll probably take earlier profits and trade the pullbacks this time as I get bored holding shares for long periods.

Good to hear you have retired. WIsh I could say the same, but still some time to go for me...