Member Info for marineclark

... my bad for not qualifying IC quote of risked NAV of 25p with the " Anchois sands A and B". That figure is a safer, and in the bag, so for now I'll keep using that, as deepers sands is yet explored.

Now.... thats if for me today... football....

Its

... The commerical COS of 50 percent seems to me very conservative. As its 50 percent thats sounds like they don't know what it isand thats true, because its unknown as of now, which is basically a 50/50 chance. It also covers the analysts back to give a conservative figure as possible. I mean you don't want the sack if you wrong.

This is based on getting gas offtakes, which I need to look futher into futher, but risk seems low to me, and lending risk from two multibillion lenders also seems very low risk.

Actually if you look at your screen shot the risked Nav for Anchois sands(A And B) is 23.5p
Risked NAv for anchois including deeper sands = 31.p.

So IC is correct.

Accoring to the table. geological COS of Anchois dissovery(Sands And B) is 100 percent. i.e N/A and commercial COS is 50 percent .

Thanks for the screenshoot. Ahhh so it is the "commercial" desrisking of the anchois discovery(from 25 percent to 50 percent). The geolical risk is N/A as its a discovery. I guess the commerical risk considers risk of getting lending and gas ottakes?

And one more thing, if the Finncap report doesn't explain what it means by Chance of success(COS), then it becomes a circular argument, going back and forththerefore open to endless interpretation , so for me, I stick with the figures given in Char's RNS gelogical table for the coorect COS figures.

Thanks Boom, with respect, until I have hands on that Finncap report, then I'll stick with what I trust so far from the IC articles figures,and also the COS figures from the Geological data provided in the RNS.

Boom, the IC article actually references HouseBroker Finncap's valuation so I'm suprised the figures are different. In that case the best figure to use is directly from FinnCap. I'm guessing report isn't free.

There seems to be a mismatch between some of the figures as I thought the risked NAV was 50 percent COS so unrisked nav would be about 23.5*2= 47, implying risked nav was 23.5 and not 31p(unrisked 62p).

I wouldnt mind get my hands on thats report and see the breakdown myself, but no complaints from me if risked NAV is the higher figure of 31p.

Also as I thought the risked part related to the deeper sands, as there is a separate risk value for that, then the existing discovery seems carries a 50 percent COS, which doesnt make sense to me, given that the geolical table from the Chars's RNS states that the this is N/A meaning COS doesnt apply because its already discovered. its probably that risk doesnt apply to discovery but to something else then.

"Chariot (AIM: CHAR), the Africa focused transitional energy company, announces the issuance of new Ordinary Shares pursuant to the Fundraising announced on 24 May 2021."

OH, the IC article was dated 1st june 2021,. The announcement of the placing was made on 24 May 2021. The IC article specifically mentions the fund raising and therefore the 23.4 p risked NAV(Anchois) and long term 325p unrisked nav(lixus containing Anchois) has to factor in the placing . Attention to detail is not something I believe is lacking when it comes to IC articles, meaning they would have updated their figures to factor in the placing. So the 23.4p risked NAV which is the short term valution is what I believe stands as of today.

All I can say is good luck mate, I dont have a crystal ball, but for long termers char's future does look a lot more different today than when the dusters happened pre CHAR obtaining the Lixus licenese thats contains the Anchois discovery.

Dont forget OH, that if we went in for farm in parter for the drilling instead of equity placing, the last farm in partner left char with only 10 percent equity, and thats 10 percent of future income as well, so all things considered, equity placing for the low risk drill looks like a good deal to me. Having said, that, I ike to buy after placings not before, which is why I bought in recently, but placings do suprise and unfortunately thats the risk in AIM shares.

Also I dont know how managment managed to pull off getting the lixis license two years ago in 2019, containing an existing discovery, and still retaining 75 percent equity and operationship in the license.

I didnt appreciate being called naive twice and a defensive cliche, thanks.

No worries mate:)

Is there error on LSE as the market cap is showing here as only 3 million?

Also, Ive seen shares drop about 40 percent because of a "bad" earnings report, so risks of big price drops, can happen any where not just equity placings by small O&g Companies.

OH,

On 28 June 2021, the Company will issue 238,512,856 new Ordinary Shares (the "Fundraising Shares"). This equates to:

· 199,646,892 Ordinary Shares to be issued pursuant to the Placing and Subscription;
· 29,231,953 Ordinary Shares to be issued pursuant to the Open Offer; and
· 9,634,011 Ordinary Shares to be issued pursuant to the Underwriting Commitment and fees.

The number of shares in issue today is 637 million. So dilution to existing shareholders was about 37 percent. However there is a difference in an equity placing to cover growing debt and bad management and one to fund a appraisal drill and fast track development, which is what is happening here.

The 25p(23.5) risked valuation , 325p risked was quoted by Investors Chronicles but was calucalted by Housebroker Finncapp. It does change as funadmentals change though,

"The Anchois gas development’s 2C base case resource has a net NPV10 of approx. US$500 million with
an IRR in excess of 30% yielding expected annual revenues of up to US$200 million."

But the NPV10( net present value discounted by ten percent) is a better figure as I care more about how quickly those assest can be turned into cash,income. As discussed, NPV is a way of valuing future income by discounting how long away that future income is and the risk involved ( for example, if that future income stream comes from a business that is not financially stable). Here Char's future income has been discounted, so as gas sales begin, that discount will narrow. $200 million future income for a 38 million market cap, is where you wil get that ten bagger from here. I dont plan to hold for gas sales though.

Also, above is my opinion only. you should always do your own research, as its your money on the line, not mine, although as we are in the same boat for now, our interests are currently aligned:)

Appreciate the response SHC. I accept Telegram's group interests are aligned with ours here and thats a good thing. I didnt want to join because I believe a better service can be provided to would be, new ,and exisiting holders on a platform with greater public visiblity; because of the quality on offer I think it offers more benefit to the current share price if dicussions are public rather than private.
While i would never trust information given here or any where else without do my own follow up research, and though I said these sites are for entertaintment only, I have actually learnt some new useful thing about the O&G industry(after vetting it myself of course). And so new or would be holders would do so too. And more I research do on Char the more I am liking it.
If this was a wildcat drill I wouldnt even be here. The pain of losing 50 percent of my equity in a day a decade ago after a wildcat drill (FOGL), is still painful even today, and thats why I would derisk no matter how good a share looks, even this one.
I agree that about the personal insults comment.Thats not accpetable. I am in favour of a balanced debate, considering all the risks too.

Its my bedtime Gooner:) There should be a addiction warning to posting on LSE.

Just wanted to clarify that the 50 percent COS is for additional sands in Anchois. The COS for finding gas in Anchois sands And B is 100 percent, in other words its already discovered. So we have base resouce of 361 BCF ,with a 50 percent chance of raising base reserves by 200 percent. I was posting about Char in ADV and some posters there must have misunderstand the COS of this appraisal drill.

preious post below:

Also, digging more in to the numbers:

..."It’s a huge resource with an estimated 361bn cubic feet (bcf) of 2C contingent recoverable resources, and 690bcf of 2U prospective resources." IC.

For Anchois sands A(114bcf ), B(247 bcf) . 114+247 = 361 bcf.
Anchois Remaining Recoverable Resource = 1051 bcf.(2C)

For Anchois deep C,M,O, Footwall(O) sands = 1051-361 = 690 bcf(2C)

so COS of Anchois deep is (64+38+37+46)/4 = 46. Or round to 50 percent.

SO with the appraisal there is 50 percent COS of hitting finding gas in Anchois deep. Note Sands A and B are already discovered. Now I havent worked out 2U yet, but from 361 estimtates to 1051., that atabout 200 percent increase in reserves.

They had two wildcat dusters but now about to drill an appraisal as well , like ADV. I dont want to chat too much about char as it annoys some posters here so I wont say any more, but I always prefer to spread risk across several different shares, instead of putting everything into one basket. I think both ADV and CHAR are superb opportunities. Good luck.

A few more goodies, last post i promise:

The Anchois Gas Development
The Lixus licence, offshore Morocco, contains the significant Anchois gas discovery for which we are targeting
appraisal drilling in Q4 2021. Since Lixus was awarded to Chariot in 2019, the team has taken steps to further derisk the Anchois Gas Development project from the subsurface through to the gas market, the construction phase
and project financing.
Using the large quantity of legacy 3D seismic data on the block, in addition to the data from four offset wells, the
subsurface team commissioned a reprocessing study using the latest modern technology which resulted in
significant improvements in both image quality and in depth control. This led to a resource upgrade, as announced
in September 2020, of audited total remaining recoverable resource to in excess of 1 Tcf for Anchois, comprising
361 Bcf 2C contingent resources and 690 Bcf prospective resources in the deeper prospective gas targets.
Promising subsurface attributes mean that Anchois is a simple and standard development which has many global
analogues. The development plan from a pre-FEED study consists of two initial subsea wells tied into a subsea
manifold with a 40km offshore flowline connected to an onshore gas processing facility, from which a short 40km
pipeline connects to the trunk pipeline to Europe allowing access not only to the growing Moroccan energy market
but also to the European gas market. In order to further enhance the planning and execution of the development,
in February 2021 a collaboration agreement was signed with Subsea Integration Alliance, the world-leading
developer of offshore gas projects, to progress the front-end design, engineering, procurement, construction,
installation and operation work streams. This agreement both endorses the project’s credentials and helps to derisk the execution of the development by collaboration with a group of top tier service providers.
Morocco provides excellent fiscal terms for domestic projects, including a 10-year corporate tax holiday from the
start of production. Although Morocco has a large and growing energy market, it is heavily reliant on imports, and
has high established gas prices. Domestic gas therefore has an important role to play as Morocco seeks to
transition away from its dependency on imported fuels and promote self-sufficiency. As gas is a cleaner source
of energy than coal, which is used for 67 per cent. of Morocco’s current power generation, a heavier reliance on
gas as an energy source will help to reduce Morocco’s carbon footprint significantly. Anchois has the potential to
play a significant role in Morocco’s transition to a low carbon economy as it seeks to satisfy an anticipated doubling
in domestic energy demand over the next 20 years. The project has highly attractive economics and we estimate
that a base case development with a 70mmscf/d plateau production rate from the 2C 361 Bcf contingent resourc

Best bits:) : A whopping 200 million of annual revenue, and debt financing.

• The Anchois gas development’s 2C base case resource has a net NPV10 of approx. US$500 million with
an IRR in excess of 30% yielding expected annual revenues of up to US$200 million.

• Anchois appraisal drilling planned for Q4 2021 with 3 distinct objectives: (1) reconfirm the original
discovery A&B sands; (2) provide a producer well location to be suspended for future use; (3) potentially
drill the additional prospective sands and potentially establish a larger resource base for longer term
growth.

• Expression of Interest Letters to debt finance the development received from African Finance Corporation
(“AFC”), a pan-African multilateral development financial institution with over US$6 billion in assets, and
a major multinational investment bank, which is a leading provider of finance in the energy sector.