Member Info for marineclark

last post sorry :) .... Investor Chronicles is owned by the Finicial Times.

"......US$3bn (326p a share) unrisked valuation across Chariot’s Lixus licence which includes the Anchois projects." quote from Investor chronicles June 2021 in which did they reference that this figure comes from House broker Finncapp. Boom, boom post a good link to earlier Finncapp's figures..

....unrisked nav for lixus(containing Anchois discovery) is 321p.

This will be my fifth multibagger in the last year so if price doubles from here, so I'll be chuffed.

Good luck England!....another 5-0 beating ...

I agree that price predicitions are dangerous, and I dont do price predictions either.... just a bit of fun.

Also, investing in AIM companies is considered high risk. However, the risk reward ratio here is greater than 1:3(the minimum I would accept before putting on a trade) , meaning if you risk 1000 pounds you get 3000 pounds back, so the rewards are definately here should you feel comfortable with the risk. As I said, I'm not here to preach risk/reward here to anyone, as thats an indivudual preference, so good luck folks. And as the lottery says ... you have to be in it to win it:)

My speculating was about the next 3 months and refers to existing discovery only(Anchois). Nearing gas sales(mid 2024), I think current prices will look very different indeed, as first income draws near, and AEMP comes more into focus, and other future drills come into play unlocking more potentially substantially more reserves... I don't plan to hold that long, but I will look to trade on pullbacks here when I can. No one has crystal ball so as the future is anyone's guess.

As always, DYOR, and I wouldnt trade money I cant afford to lose. Shares can and do go to nil.

previous year, not years. further back we hit 25p. but that was when sentiment was good. Figures may seem conservative, but thats probably for the best. Could be much higher, who knows.

Also 10p and 15p are not plucked at of nowhere, they are resistance levels from the previous years, so these will have signfiance in future price moves.

A bit of fun I guess. I reckon we wil touch 10p in November prior to spud, and then spike to 15p from spud(December) but before drill results. Assuming the drill is succesfully(Early Jan) , this would significantly derisk the commercial risks, and as Morroco imports their gas from neighbours(expensive) and their energy cuurently comes mainly from coal, getting gas offtake agreements seems very low risk to me. As gas offtakes is a pre-requiste for debt financing from 2 lenders, one worth 6 billion plus, and the other likely multibillion as well, seems also low risk to me, one follows easily into another, so in effect this appraisal drill (assuming success) , will take us much significantly closer to unrisked NAV Anchois of (60p).

As risked Nav is 23.5p(A&B) and assuming a price in November at 10p gives Char a 50 percent market sentimentdiscount , if we discount unrisked NAV by 50 percent , we get 30p, than discounting that further, as gas offtakes and debt financing while looking like a done deal, isnt confirmed yet(lets say 80 percent COS), then 0.8*30 = 25p.

My guess is 25p is the "minimum" price on January on drill success. And if sentiment is great even this figure would be even higher.

Once we reach gas sales though, currenty price will look like very silly.

As I said just a bit of fun, all speculative at the moment. DYOR.

Gooner, didnt read your post other properly. I agree with you that some derisking is sensible(dependant on your indivdual risk/reward preference) at or around spud as the spud is expected around November time, that still leaves a good two months for many day traders to get in based on a "buy on the rumour, sell on the news" play. There has been decently sized swing moves over the last two months, technically not spikes( large and sudden). The swings have occcured over longer periods and therefore are not spikes. We did spike however, about this time last year to 14p from 10p, which was a intraday spike I recall. That doesnt mean that spikes wont occur as we get closer to spud and results, it probably will. Good for short term traders here.

I wasnt trading Char the time of the last duster, but 10 days sounds a bit quick to get "nish" results for that wildcat drill.

This share is a good punt Klein. If it all works out then many here will become millionaires. I won't be one of them, but that's fine with me... one day I hope. This is a low risk appraisal , but not no risk, so I have a derisking plan in mind. Good luck.

... 4 weeks to reach 10p not breakout.

It's fortunate that we have people here who've worked in the industry to offer their knowledge and expertise to us newbies(me). I learnt some good stuff since I joined this chatroom.
Chartwise, it was great to see the price holding at close. Resistance levels are 8p, than 10p. Once we decisively break out of the 10p level(chart suggests maybe 4 weeks thereabouts) , than 15p plus is on the cards. No it won't happen overnight, but I reckon when the results come in, it will be the trigger to takes us those new yearly highs.
Also gas offtakes agreement can come in at any time, which is a prequistite for debt funding. Bagging these two would significantly de-risk the commercial risks and would take us to the unrisked NAV figures posted earlier by Boom.Boom (cool name by the way:).
DYOR. I always recommend correctly position sizing to manage risk, regardless of how good a share is.

As i said the other day, double bottom head, head and should pattern that formed is now complete - broken out of the neckline, assuming that we hold into close. The last upward swing hit 8p, I'm targeting 10p for this swing, but should take a few weeks to get there, but no complaints if its gets there sooner.

...gas discoveries(CHAR) are a safe investment because of the lower evironmental impact. With climate change a noose around everyones neck, goverments could at any moment introduce emergencyy regulation to ban new oil wells. I personaly wouldnt put any money longer than a few days in any new oil drills, aka ADV. IIMHO.

to Qualify 100 percent geological CoS for sands A, and B... I got in trouble last time.

You were a gambler when you placed a bet on two wildcat drill with a 30 percent COS. If you lost money in a Casino, you wouldnt blame the casino Im sure.
Now you've become an investor I believe.

Just to cover, DYOR.

G, this appraisal well has a geological 100 percent COS. House broker FInncapp did rate this as having a 50 percent chance of commercial success, but that was just a placeholder figure I believe as for calculation purposes the gas offtake and debt financing is currently unknown, and 50 percent chance is how to put that unkown in to an equation , and conservative figures saves analysts from the sack. I know that lenders are multibillion net worth organizations.

Happy to disagree with share predictions going into drill . We will see soon enough.

I made a lot and lost a lot a decade ago, G. I still building up my funds today, not up to the level where I want it. But I am fully invested here, make no mistake. I did make a couple of trades on VLG, JLP, ADV, JOG recently, but VLG, the bouceback didnt happen so I didnt stick around, and ADV, its 1 years lows are 1.8 p and highs a measly 3.6p. Even with their rig news share price barely moved. I mean good luck to them, but 800 percent moves here last years is why Im here big(relative to me) and not in there.
Given what i know now about CHAR, big reratings here will depend on increasing reserves, gas offtake, and the biggest rating will happen when we get the debt funding in the bag. I still think the price will move here not neccesrily on rig news, but drill spud.

great game tonight though, england played superb :)

To a billionaire, a million is nothing, to a millionare, a thousand is nothing... its all relative Gooner. But feel free to share your stake here.

Now that I know the geological COS for this appraisal drill is 100 percent I'm no longer fussed about derisking and now I'm happy to wait for results, gas offtake, then debt funding. I'll will be trading this in and out during those pullbacks though. I'm pretty chilled about the share price, it will move when its good and ready.The posts were really more about me learning the investment case here, and I happy about the fundamentals here now. Your previous posts Gooner about the 50 percent COS did concern me and made me thinking of derisking , but as it refers to commercial COS, its removed all concern for me about this appraisal drill.

I care about charts more than if not as much as fundamentals , and they look looks solid to me.

No worries about negative feeling. it is what it is. yes you are right, share price is low. Some see this as an opporuntunity, others a concern. I belong to the former camp.