Member Info for marineclark

the 115p/share for every $10 above $60 per barrel is post tax NPV for perth alone, so if the windfall tax on profits was permanent it would have an effect, but as it's only around until 2025, than answer is no.

Current chances of finding a farmout partner have massively improved in the current enviroment. Who knows when, but as GPA is not priced in atm, I would rather be in than out to be honest, especially as the current price is backed up by large amount of cash, and the other assests.

I've seen shares like CHAR go from 7p to 27p recently, so the appetite for OIl and gas is there. Get in at a good price and risk/reward is very good.

SOTB, is it confimed that windfall tax applies to AIM shares? I suspect they are/will be exempt as it makes no sense for this tax on small businesses.

The EU oil ban plays strongly into PMG hands. GPA farmout news now only a matter of time imo. For extra $10 increase per barrel above $60 that adds 115p/share.

....From fincapp

"Greater Perth Area development opportunity Parkmead’s 100% owned Greater Perth Area (GPA) development opportunity in the Outer Moray Firth is the major prize within its portfolio. This development involves three discovered fields – Perth, Dolphin, and Lowlander – with potential 2P reserves of 75-130 mmbbls (we conservatively model an 80 mmbbl development). Oil prices of over US$100/bbl alongside a more favourable North Sea investment environment should dramatically improve the chances of finding a farm-out partner to take the development forward. The GPA project is one of the largest undeveloped oil projects in the UKCS and Parkmead is assessing draft commercial offers received from the Scott field partnership for the potential tie-back of the GPA project to the Scott facilities, located 10km away. A tie-back to Scott is just one path to potentially unlock the GPA project and discussions are also being held with other infrastructure owners in the region but are most advanced with the Scott partners. A successful agreement would not only nail down the GPA development concept but also further boost farm-out expectations. With an estimated oil price breakeven of ~US$35/bbl, Parkmead’s GPA represents a material and highly profitable project opportunity in the current macro environment. Even with heavy 25% commercial risking, the GPA development still contributes a material 92p/sh to our 160p/sh risked NAV at a long-term Brent oil price of US$60/bbl. Moreover, Parkmead estimates every US$10/bbl increase in the long-term oil price adds ~£130m (115p/sh) to the post-tax NPV of the Perth field development alone. "

I have a watchlist of 100+ shares. PMG is the biggest riser in that list today. Looks like we bottomed yesterday.

Price target 160p unchanged.

https://www.parkmeadgroup.com/uploaded/research/finnCap_Research_25.03.2022.pdf

Go to page 8 for PMG's table net asset value.

Risked Nav 160p.

I sold out on on Friday after the 4/5 percent drop as price wasn't behaving as expected of a reversal. Good job I did. Clearly some inside selling before today's RNS. But it did tip me off that something fishy was going on. I'm out for now. I'll buy back in now in a few months.

Moleinahole,

I first became aware of IOG when there was a small mention (a paragraph) of it in a March 2022 article in Investor Chronicle. In the paragraph, lack of attention was cited as the cause of the lack of rerating expected of the massive first gas profits. When the half year earnings report is released that should bring the the attention to this share it deserves.

Bear in mind that in March IOG hit its all time highs in its share price, a 4.5 bagger for those who bought in at the 9p lows. As reported, big individual holders My Griffiths had sold 6.9 million shares in March to lock in some of those profits no doubt, and in April last month Az assest valour manangement sold 11.3 million shares.

Technically, the price has found support at current levels, which is when I bought in. I did try to buy in a 33p but the profit taking pullback wasnt deep enough yet ,so I sold and waited for another and better opportunity to buy, which appears to be now. I will sell if i I see big drops from here, because, you can never tell with shares. But will £15 million in the bank every month since March 2022, and to become 30 million when Southward comes onstream this winter, the risk is the upside not downside.

I'm out of all stocks right now with recession coming, expect for energy and commodity stocks. As IOG is fully exposed to current high gas prices, no hedging, thats a crap load of income for the next few years. Sure gas prices will stablise lower eventually but by then the other fields will have come online, so i don't see a drop in income. From October, Southware is expecting to come o-stream but I think the rerating will come earlier once the earnings report comes out in Auguest.

The half year earnings release will come out on August 24th 2022, 3 months away. I'm betting the price will have significatntly improved by then or from that date as the publication of this report will make this stock known to a much wider audience- many investors search for profit rns. Expecting a decent rerate on the this date.

Also,Porjected PE ratio for current year is a measly 1.4 for IOG.

Harbour energy, also produces in the north sea, and their PE ratio is 4.5, 3 times higher than IOG.

IOG is super cheap right now, and price is only this cheap because its under the radar. Only matter of time before the price mismatch corrects.

Apologies I misread OP post.

OK so 523,844,193 shares in issue at 28.40p = market cap of £148 million

60,000,000 shares at 19p = value of £11.4 million. which is about 7 percent of current market cap or equal to 26.40p.

Ignoring the income of 0.5 million a day, once those shares are issued the price would drop to 26.40p, a 2p drop. Now add the 15 million a month income, and it would only take a month to recover from such drop when those shares are issued, assuming it was issued today.

Its basically nothing.

There are 523,844,193 shares in issue. 10 million shares is 1.9% percent of the this total, which is peanuts.

Technically, the pullback was overdue. It was simply caused by profit taking after a 15 month rally (dec 2020) in the share price, and the deep pullback is an excellant opportunity to get in as first gas since March 2022 derisks this shares with 100 percent upside to come as the cash tills rings and to double in a few months time, to double again when further fields come online in a year or two.

https://www.iog.co.uk/investors/analyst-coverage/

Click on finncapp link, to read their report on IOG. You will have to register first, its free(dont even need a password), just an email adress, then search for IOG.

"Our risked NAV and price target remain uchanged at 66p/sh, although this is based on a long -term UK NBP gas price of just 55p/th versus the long end of the forward curve at over 80p/th.

Definately worth a read for all IOG investors.

Thanks Edgar. Makes sense now. new investor to IOG here, so just catching up.

So production so far from Blythe and Elgood fields, with Southwark to come online from fourth quarter this year- also Goddard and elland appraisal fourth quarter.

Current market cap of 147 million seems dirt cheap to me.

* IOG PLC - PRODUCTION IS CURRENTLY STABILISING AT 55-65
MMSCF/D
GAS AND 800-1,000 BBL/D CONDENSATE, WITH STEADILY IMPROVING
UPTIME RATES

At £1.50 per therm of UK gas that is £825,000 to £975,000 per day in revenue
At $107.5 per barrel of crude that is £70618 to £88277 per day in revenue

So between 900k to 1 million per day revenue, are my calculations at current UK gas and crude oil prices, unless I made a mistake somewhere?

As noted the "recent lack of attention", as well as the recent selling most likely by II's to pay bills, makes now the perfect time to load up for when earnings reports is released in August. With Cash profits expected to to be 188million this year, that is more than the current market cap. Expect a doubling from this price, in the next few months. Big cash flows will always drive up the share price. I loaded up today.. I did buy some not so long ago, but I sold again when I saw price weakness. However, I think a bottom could be here.

Aim-traded developer IOG (IOG) just this month announced first gas at the Blythe and Elgood fields in the North Sea.

IOG ‘recommissioned’ old infrastructure off the Norfolk coast and has started feeding in to the Bacton terminal. BP (BP) signed up IOG to an offtake agreement just before first gas, while broker Peel Hunt has forecast sales of £222mn this year and cash profit of £188mn, giving it a margin of 85 per cent. Investors have already doubled its share price in the past 12 months but an 8 per cent increase year-to-date indicates a recent lack of attention.

Ahh just read the other posts about the closing price....