The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Jed you could sell to buy back lower. But I'd only do that if you have an alternative set of shares where you want to invest.
Because if it does not fall back what will you do with the cash.
Personally I'm now just going to hold until at least £5.
At that point I'll reassess the potential upsides and downsides.
But I really want to see the impact of when cruises restart as we will have some real world business metrics to judge the business on
Oh my bad stock picks far outweigh my successes.
Marconi went bust and I lost the lot.
Lloyds I always buy at the peak, just about breaking even.
Sold glencore at about 90p for it to go on a run weeks later and ended up at about £4.
Currently pfc is not being overly friendly.
@OracleofOldham
I think insurance had some resilance and they actually innovated with their 3 year deal which is unusual in the insurance market.
I think the resilance will wane with time as older generations become more and more price savey, but most people don't want to shop around (strange as it may seem) so there is some logic in offering longer deals for those who don't like the 12 month renewal game.
The travel and cruise division is where this company will sink or float. It requires huge capital outlay and therefore debt.
There are people who watch the figures better than me but basically full ships = lots of return on investment, empty ships and the debt drags down the whole company.
Which is why with no sailing the sp tanked. But like a mortgage as that debt reduces the ships become more and more profitable.
So at this stage you are betting on how much servicing the debt hits the bottom line. Once sailing restarts it will be about when returns on investment will increase and the debt become less of a factor.
But with multiple strings to its bow it is a resilient company with decent prospects at this level.
I'm 50% up and I did not get the bargain prices post consolidation. But at these levels you are still looking at a sp far less than it was 12 months ago, after we knew covid had hit the UK.
I know what you mean by no one knows what they are doing. But it is a few steps away from gambling,
Gambling in its truist form is completely random =toss of a coin
Some gambling takes some knowledge like form into account = sports gambling
Share trading is gambling with knowledge, not complete knowledge as otherwise it would be all science based. But there is some knowledge out there.
Revenues, cash flow, debt payments, covenants, bond sales, Company news, previous market caps for equivalent financial periods. Macroeconomic events, changes in customer trends.
All these can be used to help make an educational valuation.
The chartists also have their graphs and charts to help with patterns of buys and sells.
I think people see the rise and attribute it to optimism.
I see the other side, the fall was steeper and faster and held down longer due to over pessimism that the company would fail.
As news that comes out makes the failure less likely the pessimistic leave and more risk averse buyers step in.
The risk lovers where already here at the point of consolidation and just after. They too may be adding more risk even at these prices.
Don't forget if you bought your shares at anything more than 24p, this has not yet given a return on your capital.
So this price only takes you back to after the steep falls in Feb and March 2020.
You are looking at 600p for investors to be valuing the company at pre pandemic levels.
Interestingly when you view the charts they have not been adjusted on this site for the consolidation.
You would think they would have to backwards correct the chart otherwise some new investors could rashly make a decision without knowing about the history of the graph.
I know we all say DYOR, but I was surprised they had not changed it.
Profit ain't profit till its in your pocket.
I never did get to buy some more at lower prices but happy to let this ride for a couple of years and see where the recovery takes us.
But guessing the sp is a mugs game, so I will leave it as simple as the down side risk has reduced and the odds of defaults on loans lowered.
But still some way to go to be a growth company.
I think the one lesson I have learned from this pandemic is that you can't predict its length or its impacts.
There were many who thought it was all over by the summer, but the science had long predicted a winter spike.
I think May is not an unreasonable guess for the UK to start recovering, but travel is a 2 way street and with Europe behind on its vacinne programme this is going to hamper many travel operators.
The rest of the world seem to be fairly tight on their boarder policy so my guess is that high volumes of travel are not likely to return this year as you need somewhere to travel too.
Similar to 2020, I would expect a rush for travel corridors come the end of the season, when vacinnes kick in world wide and governments see a lower risk environment to start building their tourism economies.
I know some where hoping for £4 this month, but its never a straight line to your target price.
I'd rather a few small ups and downs than a big drop as investors expectations are suddenly dashed on results day.
I have a long term hold here so as not to miss out on any eventual recovery, but trading wise I am buying below 250, selling at 285+
Sorry, but who says you can't get NHS treatment?
I've managed to get an x-ray within 2 weeks on a knee issue. Not life threatening, but could develop to be chronic if not addressed.
People love to put opinion down as fact, when it is no where near reality.
Just because the SAGA SP is not pushing 1500p, that's no excuse to then start throwing silly comments about.
Its a global pandemic and with no restrictions you would have seen true chaos, forget not being able to get NHS appointments. That would have been the least of our worries.
I think people also forget that death is the end of wedge. The number of people with long COVID is going to impact NHS resources going forwards and whilst fitness is a factor it is not the be all and end all. As even at this stage there is little insight into whether some people are genetically more vulnerable to COVID.
RoxburyHouse,
I'm not sure why he would take it private today for a higher price than he could have paid pre consolidation, that does not seem like a great business plan.
Given his age does he really want to own the whole thing? I genuinely think he had an emotional tie and saw an opportunity to save a company that is part of his families legacy.
Sure he could make a few more quid on the side by seeing it through the bad times. But I doubt he wants overall control.
Beachbum1978,
The sp of 33p does not really matter unless you bought before the consolidation and bought below 33p
What matters is what was your capital outlay?
What capital would you have got back at 33p?
What capital would you get back today or when ever you sell?
If you are asking what was the company valued at when the 33p offer was made and what would be it's equivalent value post consolidation, that has been answered below.
RoxburyHouse,
I would not let the multiplying by 15 annoy you.
Its 2 different calculations.
Your calculation is based on the overall value of the company and what would be it's equivalent value at the new share price.
My calculation is far simpler. It's based on the value of my investment at the time.
So if you have say £10000 invested at say 15p but then there is an offer at 33p.
If that offer is accepted then your capital will more than double.
As the offer was rejected and a new offer accepted, it is fair as an individual to measure the the second offer based on its value to you, not to the market value of the overall company.
Clearly for those in at say 45p or £1+. The 33p offer may have been less attractive as it would be a capital loss.
For those in below 33p, the question for them is when will the second offer grow that investment beyond the 33p offer.
Everyone makes investment decisions using their own opinion of how tney value that investment.
For me my Saga investment it viewed through the lens of that capital return.
Yes I took the share offer but I value that investment separately to the initial capital. For me Each share purchase is successful or fails based on its own value. Not whether it averages down, previous purchases.
That is just the way I work.
Wow lots to wade through today.
Some very heavy repeat posters too (always treat them with caution).
The cost of separation is shocking, I'm sure a few divorce lawyers could hammer out a better deal than 2 billion.
But can't see them backing out, as they have nailed their colours to the mast. It would require a large share holder intervention to sack the CEO and put a stop to it and the large shareholders in companies this size tend to be anaemic at best.
All that being said, is this going bust? No.
So fairly happy to buy at this price with a 5-10 year timeline.
If you bought at £16 then I feel bad for you, I've been there with other companies and it is not a nice feeling to see your capital eroded.
But unless you need the capital soon then time should hopefully see you recover some of that value.
Just out of interest Banburyboy,
Did we ever see the terms of that 33p offer?
I thought it was rejected without wider shareholders being able to see the terms.
I'm using that as the benchmark as to how well the company performs, so far so good but still a long way off £4.95.
When will I learn, got greedy seeing that £3 and held off on the sale.
I have a long term hold here but I also like to trade on the drops. Managed to get a bargain on the drop following the trading update but was greedy and did not sell this morning.
Damn shame.
You could always sell some if round numbers are essential to you.
Looks like the market is a little keen for saga today.
A comfortable position to holding shares as we get closer and closer to normality.
Let's hope boris has some good news to give on the 22nd Feb.