Who knows?
At the moment the world economy is being shut down the basics will survive, which gives me some hope for PFC.
But the oil price war could not have come at a worst time.
You can have free fuel and it will make no impact if the ship is empty.
Got to feel for saga as cruising was on the up and sales going well.
Now all that will be remembered is 'floating petridishes " and to get people coming back after this passes serious discounts will be required. Possibly run at a loss in the hope of building up confidence.
Assuming the debt does not consume the company in the meantime.
It's hard to sell at a loss and in a normal market I can't bring myself to do it that often.
But I had to cash in a couple of weeks back despite losses.
I doubt I'll find the bottom. But good luck to all investors hope you make a good return.
I do wonder about that lock down in China. It appears to have been effective. But not sure how they progress as lifting the lock down will raise the risk of further spread.
If you were harsh you would tell the at risk groups to lock up for a month and tell everyone else to circulate as much as possible to build that herd immunity.
Can't see China or any other country advocating that.
I agree the current rate is higher than it is likely to be. Also as immunity is gained it will slow the spread. But even if the infection rate was half the current projections it is still on the short term a bigger risk for chronic care and mortality than flu.
I'm in a relatively safe group so no personal need for me to worry. But most people have others who will be in more at risk groups and so you can understand the wider concern.
I get what you are saying asperger, but the prevalence of smoking and driving is higher than cv-19, and there are effective prevention measures for smoking.
If cv-19 was as common as driving then the total deaths would be higher.
All activity is to prevent it being as prevalent in the population as then the total numbers would dwarf the rest. Also can't compare annual figures to basically one month's worth.
It would be like someone inventing the car and declaring it the safest form of transport after only a few people had bought one.
Its not the total figure it's the percentage that counts.
Im going to hold off a little longer. I think there is still more to come.
Both the UK and USA are on the fringes of a break out. I'm waiting to see if that occurs as I imagine the bigger the impact in these large markets the more jittery stocks will become.
I definitely think there is value in lloyds at this price but only if the virus does not change into a run on the banks.
Boards like this show the lack of scientific and mathematical education in our general population.
Cv - 19 is not the same as flu and is far more contagious / chronic and lethal. The fact it is new helps it spread and the lack of immunisation makes it a higher mortality risk.
Flu is more common at the moment hence why it has more total deaths attributed to it. All the measures being taken are to prevent cv-19 being as common as flu.
Personally I think we will fail as it's incubation period is too big to control, but we may stagger the impact.
Long term I think immunity will grow and cv19 will phase away. But the short term shock is not possible to predict at the moment
Got to agree with young gun. The implications are still unknown. The are no true valuations at the moment as we can't see the impact on revenues.
But any companies with debt are going to be hit hardest in their sector
Prevention is almost irrelevant. If an immunisation programme was say 3-6 months away then prevention would help. But it's not.
What we are doing is playing the delay game. We know most people will catch it, but if we delay its spread then the health system might just be able to cope.
If it is not delayed then the health system would become over run and the number of chronic cases would be beyond our ability to cope. Those chronic cases would be more likely to become fatel and so the death rate would jump beyond the current 1-2%.
However, delay also means prolonged financial uncertainty.
I understand the frustration, but I think a small rise in the POO is not that significant to PFC. The question is who can make a profit on oil at this price and are PFC providing oil services to those companies/countries?
I don't have sufficient knowledge on PFC contracts to know if we provide services to those people and places who can still turn a profit at this level. If we do then great, but if not then eventually those contracts and services will end. It may only be temporary if Saudi and Russia get it together, but Saudia could keep oil at these levels for quite a while.
This is all cv related.
Quarantines, fewer people buying / selling stuff, less stuff needing to be made, less oil required.
Fear is in the air financially speaking
Because the worst case scenario for the UK is 500,000 deaths.
World wide this would be far higher than seasonal flu.
This does not mean it will hit that worst case scenario, but to stop it doing so it means a change in planetary human behaviours.
The death rate from seasonal flu is typically around 0.1%
The death rate for COVID-19 appears to be higher than that of the flu, currently between 2.3% to 1.4%.
But that is only the death rate. There is also the chronic infection rate where people will need medical intervention to support them and this is also higher.
I do stress currently, it is likely in future years the rates of infection and the chronic and mortality rates will decline as we will start to gain herd immunity as those who have had it will be less likely to get it again and pass it on.
Way too early to suggest it will go bust. But it is a high risk share. I'm shocked that some people are investing on the gamble that this virus will fade way over the summer.
People need to listen to virology experts, they are talking about a peak in summer and then again next winter. Any immunisation is 12 months away.
Its infection rate is above flu as is it chronic infection rate. It's not a world killer but it is a threat to health systems and unless you only have people in your life under 40 then it's could impact everyone.
When you are betting on events outside a companies control I don't see that as investing, its gambling. Which is fine, high risk = high rewards but also high losses.
I sold everything a week ago as I could not take more losses with no positive resolution in sight.
I think saga has been hit extra hard as it targets its products at the group most susceptible to this virus. 14% death rate in the over 80's. 8%in the over 70's etc.
It is probably an over adjustment by the market. But you can see why unlike other insurers and holiday companies that are less reliant on this customer group.
I see 26p and see a bargain and it's tempting but its only tempting if we end up with a good outcome against the virus.
I'm done.
Was already at a 20% loss and the 7% loss in the last few weeks has just convinced me that I can't pick a stock for toffee.
Back to funds for me, possibly EFT's but not individual shares as I have a very poor track record.
Expect a market bounce and Coronovirus to disappear now I have sold.
Good luck all.