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You are assuming that vaccinations mean that restrictions on travel will be removed in 6v months
It is more likely that movement will be cretricted for much longer..more likex 2 years until 70% of the population has been vaccinated AND treatments have been found so that there are few fatalities when infected. This share has a large downside potential in the next 18 monthsr and may recover thereafter if it has enough cash. Dont forget that Covid may be like flu requiring annual vaccinations...so effectivextrwarments are also essential before life gets back to anything approaching normality.
Perplexed ,why?
The virus is running riot all over Europe and the US
The vaccine rollout in the UK even if it goes well will take 6 months before it has much impact on reducing the spread.
Other countries are behind the UK in vaccine rollout.
In other words cruising will not be allowed to resume for 6 plus months
Why is anyone perplexed by this ?
I remain a holder of Saga but with the current news flow the share price will not be heading North anytime soon.
Selecta
"but the company must rid themselves of their egotistic view that the ageing masses will just blindly buy their products"
Exactly, there seems to be a presumption that cruise passengers or car insurance customers are going to blindly choose other Saga products because they are old!!
This company needs to realise that Saga customers are customers like any other and will shop around to get the best deal.
I have held Saga products in the past but when there's a better deal it's bye bye.
Having said that Saga is always on my shortlist for insurance and the company does have a lot of potential.
The issue at the moment is when cruising restarts as all cruise companies are at the mercy of regulators and governments.
Comparing covid to flu is not really helpful.
If we were talking about flu this situation would not have arisen.
Can you tell me , seriously, what the contingency plans are if there is a Covid outbreak on a cruise ship next year, and how this will be treated by ports on route ?
If we dont know then assuming everything is straightforward is not realistic.
No I do understand about it stopping the spread
However posters on this board seem to think that if all the passengers have had a jab,as they are elderly and will have priority before they sail , say in late spring then everything will be tickety-boo.
The problem is that passengers can still get Covid...and what happens then?
Does the ship have to return to home port?
Do the infected passengers get airlifted home? and the remaining passengers get put in lockdown on the ship? Will any ports allow the ship to dock?
Perhaps you can enlighten me?
Has anyone asked Saga about this when booking ?
I totally agree. The board seem to have no belief in their own ability to steer this business through a rough patch, even though the exit path from the current crisis has always been there.
It's not as if the supply of older people is ever going to dry up.
How any of them justify their pay is beyond me.
Funny how the remuneration report in the annual accounts is one of the longest sections..shows the priorities of this troop of unimaginative time servers.
This share will return to its normal trading range of between 1200 and 1400 in the next 3 or 4 month. The value style of investment favoured by this trust has been out of fashion but when the world economy recovers this trust will thrive.
Just my opinion..I dont think management changes make much difference to an investment trust like this.
This prospective vaccine still has to meet numerous regulatory hurdles before it is rolled out in the UK..and there is every chance it will fail.
Even when a vaccine is authorised it will still take months to roll out to enough of the population.
Then we have the problem of the disease still being lethal to a significant proportion of the population who may still catch it.
These 3 factors mean that governments all over the world will not be rushing to allow unrestricted air travel any time soon.
I would says 3 years might be a realistic target , and even then there will still be restrictions.
In the meantime airlines are haemorraging cash.
Probably only government owned or subsidized national carriers will survive in any thing like their current form.
I have already sold my small IAG holding.
Good luck to the rest of you.
Moles?
In Yesterday's Prufrock column in the Sunday Times we read that Paul Lester the chairman of MCS who has made the deal to SELL MCS at a knockdown price, "was also chairman of brick maker Forterra until last year, a position he took up in 2015 when the company was owned by .....Lone Star.Fancy that!"
I find this to be incredible....and can't
get the image of a beady eyed mole out of my head.
Meanwhile in Saturdays Times , Alistair Osborne writes " McCarthy bid seems puzzlingly low "
Answers on a postcard please.....
This deal is a kick in the teeth for long term shareholders.
The only reason it may go ahead is that the directors will receive life changing piles of cash despite presiding over a disaster for the shareholders who they are supposed to be working for: the unacceptable face of capitalism
All we can do is vote against and hope the institutional holders dont accept the deal
The current Covid crisis will result in ongoing disruption for several months and expansion in the growing Chinese market will be on hold indefinitely. Time for a major downgrade unfortunately. Huge downside potential.