Member Info for Mando_

Next aren't doing anything similar to THG from what I could see from my research. All they are doing is buying from other brands to sell on their online platform, similar to Amazon marketplace. If anything it has made shopping on next.co.uk an absolute mess, because of too many brands and choice. It was simpler when just trying to buy a white Next shirt from Next, but now there's loads of brands and too much choice, so most people just filter on the Next brand anyway.

When retailers try to extend ranging and choice, it doesn't increase sales to the same extent, and in my experience can actually decrease sales. E.g. An increase of 50% range choice may only lead to a 5% increase in sales, if the retailer already stocked the best selling lines. Or you get sales cannibalisation. Look at how Aldi and Lidl are stripping sales from Tesco by offering a simplistic range. Next is losing its identity and is desperate to hold onto sales as the high street declines.

THG Ingenuity is very different from Next total or Amazon marketplace, enabling brands to only list their own products on their own sites and build brand loyalty, not just trade against their competition on another etail platform.

@steveinhull
No...

@goldenyears. I'm not Kando. Not sure how many times I have to say this. I just don't read much or post much here any more as I felt that this board is not very well moderated and it became infected with short supporters and day traders spouting nonsense to try to create bigger daily swings in the share price. I just do my own thing and stick to a private chat group on telegram now.
Cheers
Mando, not Kando (although I generally agree with his posts and sentiment)

Topping up under Lord Allen's average is probably a safe bet.

Just saying.

Kando my brother.

Also I checked the trustpilot link. THG customer services are clearly actively trawling the customer feedback, replying and trying to solve customer issues.

Looks like good customer service to me!
:-)

lol - for me its pointless worrying about being down 0.10p on a day when I'm already down over £1.00...
This time next year Rodney... :-)
GLA

@moniman
In a bull market THG rose to £8.37/share base on future potential when revenue was just over £2bn.
Currently a bear market. Revenue forecast increasing YoY. EBITDA increasing.
Investment in supply chain at ICON and New Jersey with Autostore, expansion in Australia and Asia, and Matt Moulding on an investor call said they now have capacity for £14bn revenue and he believe that capacity will be full within 3-4 years.

He explained he invested in the logistics to have the capacity for growth to go land the global businesses he's looking to work with.

So in the next bull market over the next 4 years, if we max the £14bn revenue number, and we're targeting £20bn in 8years, does that mean the company could be valued at 7 times the price it was previously, i.e. £8.37 x 7 = £58.59/share

Why set you sights so low lol

;-)

Cheers 1pencil :-)

Do our brokers loan our shares like banks loan our savings?
What happens if we all put sell orders on our stock now for £8.00/share.
Not being snarky. Genuine question for someone who knows the industry better than me.

Cheers

Today is a reminder high quickly beaten down stocks can rise in one day off the back of good news.

Many IIs are sold down now the the bear minimum based on the public information on MorningStar. Less places for shorts to borrow stocks from.

Get ready for a relatively quick rise and potential Christmas rally, but that may only be the start.

Shorts will want us to think the stock will drop after Christmas in a similar pattern as last year, but this year is different: MM only has until September 2023 to let go of his Golden Share. QIA holding an average price around 170p. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 170p or higher MBO or PE deal for Matt to protect his company, but I expect the stock to rise naturally higher towards September.

But the closer we get to September without an offer, the more it will cost MM to take THG private, that's for sure. It's in his interest to take the company private as soon as possible to get a lower cost, or push through positive new news such as the FTSE main listing plan and organic sales growth through logistics improvements at ICON (annualised Q4) and the New Jersey US distribution site (sales improvement from Q1 2023), and to top it, would love some news on major D2C wins.

Can't lose from here.

GLALTHs

Hi 1pencil, I agree. From the MorningStar data Jupiter only reduced their position by around 13m shares during September, in a month where over 250m shares were transacted.
So to me it seems they aren't in a rush to dump like many previously thought. I wonder if currently they are being helped by shorts trying to close. A win/win for a fund which wants to dump stock and shorts wanting to exit as cleanly as possible before a potential major upward move in the SP.

As I understood it, the Softbank Vision Fund was originally largely funded by Middle Eastern family wealth funds.
I wouldn't be surprised if this is actually simply a stock transfer in reality to the same end whale investors who want to continue to hold as the Vision Fund department is shut down.
The fact that MM bought some of the Softbank stock, makes me guess a major QATAR based whale investor could have simply had their stocks transferred, and MM bought surplus stock from Softbank which Softbank could have regularly traded to average down pricing on behalf of their whale investor customers.
Whether it is a buy from a new Qatar investment fund, or simply a transfer of management of the stocks, it still shows confidence in THG as a long for the future.
All speculation obviously.
For my sins, I'm holding long and have been here and adding since £3.30
GLA

Softbank are def another distressed seller. They've been selling loads from their tech fund. The 39p price would have been agreed when the price was around 32p, but the negotiation probably ended last week and the closed loop rumour ring would have led the price up to 45p over the last week. Good Times for new longs. Massive confidence shown from Qatar and MM

I've switched off, especially for the holidays.
I don't read many posts here much anymore, maybe 4 or 5 a day.
Not to be negative to posters.
I'm just not concerned about short term share price movement and I'm patiently waiting for continued growth over the next few years.
I just pop in mainly to check for RNS's now.
GLA LTHs

@Rock8
If you were selling your house and the potential buyer wanted to look around, but already told you they would only offer half of what you thought your house was worth, would you welcome them in and show them around?
Come on.

Rock8
Be careful what you wish for with the golden share.
For all we know there may have been PE's wanting to take THG private again at 70p and all that stands is their way is MM and his golden share. When you have major Institutional Investors asking the owner to give up the one thing that gives him power to block an aggressively shorted takeover, you have to ask yourself why.

I'm glad he's held onto the golden share.

On the flip side of the arguement, until LSE rules changed this year, owners were not allowed to hold golden shares if they wanted to get a premium listing on the LSE. So one of the suggested reasons for him losing the Golden Share was to be able to get the premium listing which would attract more II's to buy. So there's no need for him to lose it now.
https://www.fca.org.uk/news/press-releases/fca-confirms-new-listing-rules-boost-growth-and-innovation
"Allowing a targeted form of dual class share structures within the premium listing segment to encourage innovative, often founder-led companies onto public markets sooner and so broaden the listed investment landscape for investors in the UK."

So also, there is still a likelihood of the premium listing soon as previously planned and advised, opening up some institutions to purchase THG, whereas before they would not have been allowed within their rules to purchase THG due to its current standard listing.

Today is a disaster and the last two weeks have been a disaster. Can't gloss over that.
With hindsight, many of us here should have sold at 156 obviously and not held out for more bids.

But it's not just THG which has tanked today and over the last 2 weeks.
ASC -32.46% today. HFD -28%
Today's disaster is a combination of factors:-
- Asos and Boo bad results.
- No further bids for THG
- Revlon going bust.
- BOE, ECB, FOMC rates updates and inflation fears.
- War, Biden's visit to Ukraine.
- Bitcoin/crypto tanking with failures found in the systems.
- Tech and Retail stocks being hit worst.

I understand your pain and feel it too but I don't believe the conspiracy theory HH. And pushing the idea would probably not do us any favours. Stay positive.

@Kando - I'm starting to think you may actually be my alter-ego lol.
You write like me, and seem to think like me also...
Completely agree with your technical analysis.

Cheers

#I'mNotLeveraged

Great work HH :-)