Member Info for Maldini1

Quite correct Jones. But let me pass something by you for further consideration. Whilst sovereign default might allow OGIF to walk away from a debt, it wouldn’t help in recovering the lost opportunity they would suffer if SOU went belly up. Hence why they should care about the value of their stake in SOU. Am I reading the situation wrongly?

I see the argument of OGIF’s free shares being touted regularly on the BB. I’m not convinced that because OGIF were “gifted” their shares that they feel any less aggrieved by their ensuing collapse in value. And it’s to our advantage that they should be hurting.

If someone gave you an asset, which on day one had a market value of around £250m, how might you feel if you tried to sell it 3 years later only to find that the value had plummeted to around £6m? You would probably be desperate enough to try almost anything in order to restore its previous value. I don’t know of any financial institution who would rest on its laurels at the prospect of seeing a quarter of a billion pounds in value disappearing down the loo.

Both prerequisites for the deal in my opinion.

Ahh....those happier days of 2016/17 Gregory, when the sky seemed the limit.

However, at this stage, before we know whether we have a deal, or what future exploration might look like, any predictions or analysis about future share price are pretty much worthless. But boy, just think what a new discovery might do for the share ahead of first gas at the Horst and dividends.

A titbit which might be of interest from last June.

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/comment/2019/06/13/supply-crunch-to-reignite-interest-in-oil-juniors/

Muzoman, I think that the first RNS was probably enforced due to the news being leaked the night before. However, I agree that there seems to be some new interest in SOU, so we shall see whether what lurks around the corner brings the some long awaited relief and good news or another kick in the nuts.

Gregory, just wondering why someone would take worthless shares instead of cash from a company that by all accounts is heading for the wall?

Validation required please. Has the agent dealing with the placing accepted payment in shares? Confident?

Didn’t realise that all the other posts were based on facts. It’s as plausibile as any other theory being spouted.

OGIF finally making a move? Cheap way for them to get closer to their 29.9%?

Exploration, I’m always happy to listen to anyone who has a greater insight into how these things work in Morocco.

In broad terms the value of OGIF’s share of SOU has dropped by circa £250m since the original transaction, so restoring value should be high on their list of priorities. If value goes up for them, then it goes up for us as well. If OGIF are indeed now steering the ship from behind the scenes then having a heavyweight player in our corner is no bad thing as they bring some protection and certainty into what often feels like shark infested waters.

I think that’s right. tombi1. Maybe there’s some contingency built into that timeline so we’ll wait and see.

The next few weeks may tell us more about how confident OGIF feel now that MS is at the helm. They’ve kept their own council to date, at least in public, and there was no sell-off when drills failed and the story began to unravel (and yes, we all remember that they didn’t actually pay hard cash for their shares).

Maybe behind the scenes they’ve been more active and influential than is evident to us. It’s also possible that they know more about the longer term prospects for Tendrara or the merits of the proposed deal than many others.

At today’s prices, a 1% purchase (some 10m plus shares) would cost OGIF the princely sum of circa £300,00 and so they have some headroom to buy a few more up to 29.9%. So far there’s been no evidence of any buying on their part, and we can read whatever we want into that, but it could change as time ticks towards February and if and when a deal looks increasingly likely. We’ll get to know what the market thinks once OGIF has shown it’s hand.

Any number of posts have advised caution against action that could add unnecessary risk to the chances of securing a decent deal, especially as the consequences are often not seen until they come to pass. I hope I’m wrong, but intentionally leaking information to the media at this time does not seem like the best move. However I’m sure that the action group will have undertaken a thorough risk assessment of what can possibly go wrong.

Jez, by the same token I assume that there are also examples of where the Sheriff didn’t call it right and had jumped on the bandwagon of opinion for his own gains?

Audible, the potential investors who might be influenced by the Sheriff or his posse are probably of little concern to the potential buyers who will do their DD and decide on the merits of the deal.

Yeh, I can support that.

Highly unlikely I would wager StMary.... but of course it was a quip.

Has anyone been informed of any recent sell-off by major investors? Is someone privy to any new information that confirms the death knell for SOU? I’ve heard nothing new, but then again I’m reliant on RNSs, which puts me like many other Pis at the bottom of the information food chain.
Of course it could be that we’re experiencing the consequences of a current news vacuum, hot on the heels of a calamitous year. A less than effective PR strategy hasn’t helped. The situation is likely to continue for a while yet, either until we get to know the details of whatever deal is finally presented to us or the company disappears up its own rectum without trace and with whatever is left of our money.
Until then, people will turn up regularly on the BB with their predictions and justification as to why we’re all going to hell in a hand cart...or to intentionally twist the knife at every opportunity for their own gain. The share will remain in the gutter and at the mercy of those whose job it is to trade. I have no way of knowing for certain whether any poster has access to any more news than anyone else, but I imagine that they have either simply lost any hope that the situation is retrievable or are just out to make a buck at the expense of others.
If your mantra is “in it til the end” then however uncomfortable all this noise may be, it will make little difference and you probably already have your tin hat on and are hiding under the bed awaiting news.
To coin a recent phrase from the BB, what wouldn’t we give for an anonymous punter to buy a few million of “these beauties” just to steady the nerves.

Well...you’ve asked a similar question a number of times in your relatively short time on the BB. If you haven’t yet worked out why you have invested (or trading) then I’m not sure that anyone on the BB can help you. May I suggest that you re-read the most recent RNS’ as they outline the current position, without the risk of personal bias from posters, and then you will be able to make your mind up if it’s worth hanging around.