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To Radium1. and Gdog. - like you guys I just couldn’t resist buying again at these levels. Last night I transferred another £20k into my H&L account and put a limit order in at £6 (believe me I thought we’d seen the last of this level back in March). Anyway topped up at 598.7p and then watched in disbelief as the price plummeted down to 580p. Thankfully it’s back around 600p and waiting for the first pre market figures from Nasdaq which will determine its fate today. Must be a raging buy at these prices.
Yes I’ve seen all 4 analyst targets but not any dialogue analysis. With the minimum target price of $28 and up to $31 from these analysts there would seem to be a gilt edged upside but no takers. Depending on the close stateside tonight I may well put in a £20k limit order around the £6 mark. Surely it can’t fall much below £6 in the weeks ahead. There has to be a bottom based on value analysis. Oh and yes I’m in UK but reason I nbought via Nasdaq was the EToro site offers free trades whilst my UL broker has about a £55 currency charge with each £10k purchase
Last time the AIM PRICE was as low as today was way back on 15th March. Since then the Yo-yo has well and truly found its way into the hands of the market.
Question for US investors. Is it as easy to trade an ADS stock vs a stock with a full Nasdaq listing. Are ADS stocks covered by financial analysts as they would a fully listed stock. Gdog used to say how tough it was to buy Tremor on AIM when he was in USA . Whatever the reason we are getting slaughtered on Nasdaq with the price now at a 52 week low of $ 16.38 and looking like it might drop into the 15’s tomorrow. Given I sunk £10K into the Nasdaq listing at a tad under $20 I’m naturally cautious about yet more but with funds sitting in a bank account I am tempted to have another go tomorrow but on the AIM listing which might well be in the high £5’s tomorrow.
Hi Radium 1. I’m sorry that I cannot agree with your comment that the AIM market is the main driver and that Nasdaq listing simply tracks that. Before Nasdaq we were doing very well on the AIM market price, yes it had its ups and downs which is why I called it the yo-yo share. But since Nasdaq listing it’s the AIM market that is lead by whatever Nasdaq does. If Tremor on AIM was only reacting to these results I’m sure we’d be now well over 900p and on our way to the Finncap target of 1400p. You only have to read the Finncap analysis to conclude that we are really doing well. BUT for some reason the US market has taken its ultra dim view of Tremor and each morning our AIM market reacts to that.
And furthermore I cant fathom how this could possibly be shorted given that there would be virtually no sellers on the US side who would have been in profit and prepared to sell. I'm just stumped for a reasonable explanation.
Well there certainly seems to be no love for Tremor stateside. With pre-market down again below US$ 17 and showing no signs at all of recovery. When we listed at US$ 19 that was considered a give-away price compared to the AIM listing which had already burst through the 800p level. Since then we have had two quarters of excellent results, which on any metric against group peers confirm Tremor on the right track. The result, total wipeout. It seems that yet again we are in the jam tomorrow aspiration which always seems to indicate that the next set of results will push the SP higher. I really don't know what is happening Stateside with their analyst reviews of Tremor but the fact is that the Nasdaq listing has been nothing short of a disaster. We are miles below the listing price of US$ 19 and seemingly the $ 23+ levels which might push the AIM price above 800p are currently just a pipe dream. If the company was a basket case with no growth, no cash, no profit I could understand the market reaction but the reality is the opposite. Gdog as a US resident might be able to shed some light of any, if any, analyst reporting in US of Tremor.
I have now read the Finncap report from beginning to end and it being the only detailed and thorough financial analysis yet published since results, I am still at a complete loss to explain the total collapse in the share price since Thursdays earnings release. By every measurable metric against all its peers, Trade Desk, Pubmatic, Magnite, Viant Tremor was miles ahead in growth, profit, ebitda growth, operating margins, virtually every known parameter.
If one refers to page 18 of the Finncap report I will try to list the important parameters,
2018Dec. 2019 Dec. 2020 Dec. 2021 Dec Est. 2022 Dec Est
Revenue. 131.4. 164.0. 184.3. 298.5. 340.2
Ebitda Adj. a. 44.1. 60.4. 60.5. 149.2. 170.3
Pbt Adj. 42.6. 40.0. 30.8. 121.7. 139.5. (After interest)
Share based payments 8.0. 15.8. 14.5. 42.0. 50.3
Pbt. 27.2. 3.6. - 7.4. 56.4. 77.2
Eps fully diluted. 43.2. 30.8. 23.6. 71.1. 69.7
Ebitda margin. %. 33.6. 36.8. 32.8. 50.0. 50.1
The one metric that stands out like dogs balls is the share based compensation which has rocketed from 8 mil in 2018 to 42.0 mil for this year. And all without any profit or share price targets. Just handed out like confetti. And seemingly increasing as a percentage of Ebitda year after year. Can’t believe we didn’t notice this earlier.
BUT in all other metrics we easily beat or at worst meet all our peers. Nobody comes close to an Ebitda margin of 50% (55% for last quarter) and only Pubmatic can meet our yoy revenue growth of 54%.
So who can explain a drop since Wednesdays close of US$ 20.80 to today’s current price of US$ 17.08 as I write. Meantime TTD up another 5% today.
That’s why I question a possible typo error in Fincapp’s price target of £17 and maybe it should be US$ 17. The only buggers who made any money from Tremor this past 6 months are the directors, the robber barons of the market. Sod we shareholders, just as long as the gravy train keeps running.
Meantime answers on a postcard as to why the market prices Tremor as a future basket case …
Just calculated that across my ISA, Sipp, and funds account the Friday fall cost me over £27000. And I still don’t know why. I’ve read all the analyses about directors share sales (post results so didn’t impact) the relatively small increase in CTV revenue etc but still not read any analyst reports which fully explain the collapse in price. Noted that Trade Desk went up another 9% on Friday and we lost 9% in US market. Surely the profit taking motive (price had moved up around 15% prior to results) still doesn’t explain. Can only hope for some considered rethink over weekend from investors and look to some recovery early next week.
For Christs sake what is going on here. A 104 p drop here in UK and Nasdaq showing a pre-market of $ 18.45 for another 7.84% drop. These are the reactions expected of a company whose sales and profits had collapsed let alone shown a record 3rd quarter. So we are back below where we started on the Nasdaq listing of $ 19 despite the passage of 2 record quarters and forward guidance for continued growth. I just cant figure it.
Well that was certainly an underwhelming reaction Stateside. Having soared to over $ 22 at the open it ended up down at $ 20 having lost all yesterday's pre announcement gain. At one point it even dropped into the $19.50's. I remain completely stumped by this and expect the AIM market will follow suit tomorrow with a fall at the open. Lets just hope this is a final shake out and some sense of sanity will occur.
Managed to get a bunch more shares earlier today on the dip for just over the 33p mark and now accumulated a total of over 600,000 shares. Sitting on a great profit at 35 p sell already but hoping for big lift next year. Wish I had seen this company before the Telegraph article back in April which got me into researching rare earth industry and all the non China players. This company seems to have it all with the mining, refining, and recycling and can’t see any other which covers all these areas.
With pre market Nasdaq listing only showing a 1 cent uplift to yesterdays close this is a completely underwhelming reaction to what we’re great results and excellent forward guidance. Similarly Uk market has come off earlier highs and I was expecting well over 800p today. Any forensic accountants to explain this ???
I agree with munchbox54. As I said a while back Mka will need to find a huge company to partner with for the concentrate plant to become operational let alone the subsequent transport and refining of the metals at the Poland plant. I still feel their best bet would be to either be acquired by or joint venture with a mining company such as Glencore or Anglo American. The development costs of a mine site and refining plant would be chump change as you say for one of the conglomerates. I’m sure discussions of this nature are well advanced. Of course Talaxis (Noble Group) fit the bill perfectly so are in pole position right now.
Yes great results but strangely no mention of cash position in the initial summary. However looking through the balance sheet I see cash surged to 333 million vs 97.4 million last year. Wow this company is printing money. Ebitda up 116% on the 3 month period and up 402% on the 9 months. Forward guidance also looking great. Gdog get to bed and sleep well.
For Gdog - Given how my broker in Uk charges both a trading fee plus a currency charge for buying US stocks I decided to open an account with Etoro to try to take advantage of “free trading”. Anyway I funded it with £10k (around $13500). Even though I didn’t have a clue how to actually use the damn app, I somehow managed to buy a stack of Trmr shares on Nasdaq at around Us$ 19.97. Used up all my funds and now expecting the rocket tomorrow to go with my UK shares. So if anyone out there uses Etoro let me know how you put limit orders on both for buy and sell. Strangely Etoro doesn’t list the AIM Trmr on its site so could only buy the Nasdaq listed one.
I managed to buy a stack more just now for both my ISA and my trading account at prices from 33.08 to 33.43p as I could sense the sentiment turning positive again as we proceed through the day. I feel it could well finish just 0.5 p down on the day after getting as low as 1.75p down.
Once I saw the pullback from the expected open on Nasdaq I quickly managed to get a new buy order in at £7.19. As I write the pullback at open is falling further so maybe we will finish today break even.
With the Nasdaq listing showing a price drop of over 80 cents pre market I confidently predict this to be the final shake the tree before results tomorrow. With Pubmatic showing a 25% shoot pre market following their results I have to conclude that Tremor will shoot the lights out tomorrow. If it drops below 700p today on AIM I am definitely buying more. I have to think that 800 p tomorrow is in the offing.
Well its down to the 33 p sell level today. Just based on recent price history I still reckon it might retrace the 32p or lower sell level. Im not putting in a bid price yet until I see what transpires in the market today and rest of this week. Hope my theory comes off. Yes I know we are talking pennies but each penny off or on the price means about £ 4000 to £ 5000 for me in my overall holdings. Better in my pocket than the MM's.