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At the current SP I am well up by over 40% on the shares I bought for my ISA. However I'm still down around 4 to 5 % on the shares in one of my SIPPS and about 75% down on shares I bought for a normal fund account back in the days of Blinkx. Thankfully the latter share holding is minimal in the context of the shares in my ISA.
This is the first time in years I am feeling quietly confident about the future. As others have posed I don't really see this moving much above £ 2.50 within the next year at least until the actual results become clearer. For too long we have been promised "jam tomorrow" and then they hid the actual performance within the mixed takeover financials. You never got a breakdown of individual company turnover or profit per sector, just the overall sales and loss.
Is there any particular significance in a large spread as currently. ?? Usually the spread on this share is 2 but today at 7 this represents 5.1% which is really high. Does this portend some news that may affect the share price.
Having made a few bob buying a couple of lots at 102p and 137p I decided to sell out at 143p and wait for the pullback. As this has happened today managed to buy back at 140.2p and will now hold. Via a unit trust also holding Trade Desk which as you all know has performed so much better by having a Nasdaq listing. This share has been up and down like a bride's nighty.
HL just sold at 141.1 when the bid price dropped to 140p and thus triggered my stop loss. Time will tell if I made the right decision but as they say, bank the profit while you can. Looking through the next few months I can only see further re-tracement of stock markets. Does the old adage "sell in May and walk away" still hold true.
Maybe they feel like I do in that the price may well fall back shortly and they can buy back at lower prices than now.Seems logical.
Having made a few quid by buying in at 102p and 137.5 p I fear the share price has now topped out and is stuck within this 142 to 145p range. I also am of the belief that the very significant stock market surge since late March may very well be coming to a head. For this reason I've put a stop loss at 140p for my current purchases and if there is the expected pull back I'll try to buy in at a later date. Any thoughts short term ?? I remain firmly of the belief that whilst we may well write off 2020, there could be a recovery from mid 2021 back into the 200+p range.
Following my last posting I decided to bite the bullet and sell the lot at 143.1 p. Already re-invested the funds and as per today have made between 7 & 8% already. I remain very sceptical that the eventual total capital return will reach the 195p valuation per cash holdings a while ago. Expecting a very significant cash drain under the Covid situation but he ho we'll see in a year if I was right or wrong.
Ive just done a calculation across all my share holdings in Tremor, having been in this share since the old Blinx days. I've got holdings in ISA, Sipp, Sipp drawdown, and fund holdings each obviously bought at different times over the years. Until this bloody coronavirus hammered the markets I was well on my way to recovering my average COST per share of £ 2.60.
I am holding on as I think this has definite medium term potential to well exceed this average cost, but a lot depends on how quickly companies return to advertising after the virus shutdowns. Listening to financial commentators it looks like advertising will take a hammering as budgets are smashed. Any thoughts ??
Ive just been doing some calculations which Id like to share with you and ask your opinion. Having already lost some £50000 approx on this share over the years, I calculate that my current shareholding after all the dilutions is a grand total of 1724 shares across ISA, Sipp and fund holdings. If I sold the lot at £1.43 that's give me a grand total of £ 2465.32. If I held on and by some miracle at the final demise of this company I might get an extra £0.52 per share (based on the RNS notice of £ 1.95 per share_ that would give me an additional £896.48. More realistically and based on my own postings, say we only get another 30p per share that's give me £517.20.
So the dilemma and question is do I think that with the markets running hot currently I might be able to register a gain of 21% (ie £517.20 divided by £ 2465.32) in the same time frame that I would otherwise have to wait for my capital return from Watchstone. I'm sure many of you might be asking the same question. I know the sums are small and that many of you might have much larger residual holdings but the same percentage play applies. Given that one investment I had since end March has already returned over 40% I am leaning towards the sell and re-invest now or miss the boat as markets recover.
The most important factor in determining post capital return share price, will be the actual cash position at that time. As you indicated the latest RNS did confirm a cash position of approx £90 million equivalent to a cash equivalent of 195p per share. However as I indicated in an earlier post there is bound to have been some cash burn in recent months, and even more so in the light of the Covid 19 business lockdown. I highlighted the cash burn between June and December so am expecting even higher cash burn. The Ingenie business is still loss making and is surely absorbing some cash and not sure it really has any notional value. So my best estimates are that post capital return they will be left with only around £20 million in cash plus an ongoing loss making rump. With the 46 million shares in operation I would expect like you a share price of 30-40p but no surge, just more agony and waiting for us long suffering shareholders as we await the complete windup of the company.
Having bought another 5K worth when the price was 102p was hoping to dive in again today but NOT with this spread. what the **** ? A 10p spread between buy and sell. Someone's taking the Mickey here. Just a few days ago we had a 4 p spread. Is this a reflection of the low number of shares actually in free circulation with II'S holding the majority. ??
6 trades today all sells no buys and price goes up 2.5p ?? Explain ?
Similar story last week with several days of large sells far exceeding any buys and price went up on those days. Go figure.
In further support of my suggestion of ongoing cash burn, if we take the total cash as at 30th June 2019 (per the report) of £41.1m and we add to that the £39m from the escrow account we arrive at £ 80.1M total cash. Yet the cash reported at end December 2019 was only £71.6m meaning that in the last 6 months there was an effective cash burn of £8.5m just in running the business. So we can reasonably conclude that in the forthcoming period before first distribution there will continue to be some cash burn which will reduce the final amount that would be payable to shareholders. That's why the share price isn't really reacting. And of course there's still the SFO matter unresolved despite years of waiting.
Sorry both my calculator and my "Facts" were both off key in my earlier post. There are in fact 46m shares currently. What I'm not clear about is whether the £90m cash following sale of healthcare division already includes the agreed £39m released from the escrow account. If so then as has been pointed out the current cash position if all returned to shareholders would realise around 195p per share. HOWEVER there is bound to be some cash burn between now and the first distribution, to support the ongoing Ingenie business (and line the pockets of the directors). Plus there should be costs associated with the winding up of the business (lawyers and accountants always get a huge chunk), so I'm trying to be realistic and suggest that we probably won't get all of the current asset value by the time the business comes to a close.
With around 41 m shares in operation and a net cash of £90m if every single penny was distributed to shareholders this would result in a payout of $ 1.74 per share. After which there would be nothing left in the company other than Ingenie which is loss making so I would expect the SP to tank immediately after the first payout reflecting a very small company with probably ongoing small losses. Best hope if for them to sell Ingenie if anyone would be interested then it would be a clean out of the lot. There are bound to be other claims yet from the cash so it's unlikely that we are going to get more than around £ 1.54 per share which is precisely what we have now. Just my thoughts as someone who's been invested here for years and lost an absolute packet.
Think I mis calculated as initial price reaction is 27 p down. Jesus.
Oops the results were not as hoped for. Flat revenue, flat gross profit, and a loss per share of $0.05 compared to a profit of $0.16 to December 18. Cash generation was good however with net cash pretty constant despite the share buy backs. No dividend and no indication of further buy backs. No actual figures given for R1 actual sales and profit contribution so a smokescreen there. Full year expected results to be below expectations but "medium to long term" expected to be more profit generative. In other words a continuation of the usual R1 claptrap of "jam tomorrow". Still holding but don't expect any great share price reaction up or down this morning.
According to this website there have been over 86000 buys today with 16000 sells yet the share price falls by 1.00 p. Similar the other day with massive surplus to the buy side yet price fell by 2.00 p. How can this be ??
At this rate we will be lucky to ever see the price retrace back to 200p let alone ever get anywhere near the 770 p broker target which seems just a mirage.
I'm with Hargreaves and Lansdown and they are still showing R1 shares in my various holdings and no mention yet of the switch to Taptica.
Meantime would just like to add my comment re the share price this morning. I feel that the recovery from the early fall is simply due to the share buy back programme starting in earnest. I fear that once the buying momentum stops, the price will again start to fall back. The "trading update" part of this morning's RNS gave absolutely no figures re R1 other than the statement of being below market expectations. This is sure to weight heavily on the share price until at least some indication of the trading situation after a few months of the combined entity. One thing I am sure of is that I'm glad to see the back of R1's board. Until this latest statement from Taptica about their performance being below expectations all the previous R1 statements were very bullish. What a bunch of lying swines.
Just managed to buy in again at a touch below 180p so here's hoping this is a one day blip. Was fully expecting Tap to head beyond 250p and thus drag R1 along with it. Time will tell. One thing is for sure. With my 5 years of experience with this share I won't hold onto this quantity beyond a 200p price target and will then trade again.
Meantime my average in my SIPP and ISA is still stuck in the 455p to 600p range.