Member Info for MALBRAD

Oh dear- quite right CP - my apologies to all. I wrongly thought it was a new RNS. That said, I am puzzled that we have had no factual update from Aminex on what progress is being made with the pipeline or with drilling plans. Re the latter, I appreciate that Aminex as the junior partner has no control over timescales. Is the issue a news blackout for political reasons; or are there real timing uncertainties over timescales, that would make giving an update on progress and a forward time-line difficult/unreliable?

Positive but very brief and no new information. Either there is a news black out by led by key stakeholders holders or Aminex needs new advisers re shareholder relationships and publicity.

Many thanks duff55 for posting the presentation pdf. Does anybody know how to access the oral presentation as I would like to see Collin’s body language and hear his oral comments. I found the pdf very comprehensive. My three take homes are:

The strong team that clearly looks at a big range of non operated deals before investments are made. Hence both the quick paybacks and a clear message that Zephyr are doing more than just gambling on fluctuations in the price of oil and gas.

The delay re hydrogen and an idea of timescale from making a start to generating an income. The clear cause of the delay is the $9m needed and the inability to fund this in house given the ongoing Cane Creek programme and the delay in getting a payback from it.

The need for a partner on acceptable terms (our bargaining position would be stronger with some proven cash flow from operated assets). Alternatively, the risk of a dilutive capital raising as soon as operated assets start to deliver, leading to a further wait for a decent return by long term holders such as myself

Many thanks to posters for responding but how do I disable the pop ups for a few minutes whilst I do a posting.

Apologies for the typo, most should be post.

I would welcome advice from those who have succeeded in posting a message more than two or three sentences long. My experience of trying to do a longer post is that that the text is so unstable due to pop up advertisements that I have lost the most twice already this morning.

It will be interesting to see what Malcy makes of the deal. Malcy has been cool about Trinity for a while. Trinity obviously have money problems re their offshore well and have resorted to endless work overs to slow down the decline in their output on shore. Arguably we have not negotiated very well and ought to have paid a lower price for Trinity. I also worry about the massive diversion of management effort that will be needed to integrate the two businesses, at a time when t he key priority should be to build up output quickly from our existing assets. The deal also puts a spotlight on the absentee senior management running the company primarily from Canada. Arguably Touchstone now need to strengthen their on the spot senior management team in Trinidad.

Interesting to note that work to date has already used up $5.4m of our cost carry. The Eclipse loan is expensive though is perhaps to be expected given the risks that cash flow could get delayed beyond mid 2025. At least dilution via a share issue has been avoided at this point.

I am grateful to whoever posted the link to this research note. It was comprehensive and much superior to the ever uncritical reports from the house broker. I share the view that the key insights are the review of the worsening depth position and the positive prospects for a rapid growth in income. What was not said directly, is that assuming the key shareholders do not want a dilutive capital raise, Zephyr will need to up development investment as best it can but cut back on exploration expenditure. Another obvious comment is that any further unexpected delays will put more stress on the debt position. Shareholders in Touchstone Exploration will tell you about the damaging impact on the share price of delays, even though the expected wall of cash remains just over the horizon.

exploration costs.

I would welcome clarification from those with a better memory than myself. My recollection is that Shell found gas at Royston but pulled out as it was not what they wanted at the time. Two queries that then follow.

1. Am I correct in assuming that the oil results reported today are from a greater depth than anything that Shell drilled.

2. I have no recollection of TXP checking out the Shell gas discoveries at Royston. Have I missed something or am I mixing this up with another pr operty?

Elland

Thank you for contacting CH and getting confirmation of the pipeline position and a view on potential output from 36-2.

News on non operated assets continues to look good going forward. State36-2 well still being worked on. I had hoped for more detail here and clearer timescales than ‘near term’. Active management of land holdings a positive for the long term but of little immediate relevance. I would have liked some information about progress with sorting out mothballed processing facilities and updated timescales re gas export pipelines. No mention of any other exploration work going forward in the Paradox. The problem with the State36-2 well has clearly led to a major loss of momentum re opening up the Paradox Basin. Still a good long term prospect but I cannot see a sustained rise in the share price before late this year/ early 2024.

A very positive RNS that confirms the promising long term story that we all know about. However, no timeline updates re sorting out our well accident, renovating the processing/pipeline assets we have acquired, or linking up with the existing gas network so that we can sell gas from the Paradox. A presentation by CH would be helpful. In the meantime is anybody going to the AGM and able to report back on anything said beyond the usual formal business?

Northern Magic
1. I assume that Aminex will want to sort out Kiliwani North and perhaps follow up any leads that result from the gratis survey of part of the surrounding area.
2. I think we still have some offshore exploration rights and will presumably need to either do some exploration or give up the rights.
3. I seem to recall that our partner advanced us some money at one point to keep us going until a rights issue was made. I cannot recall now whether this has been repaid, or whether repayment is first call on any cash flow from production.
4. We have cut costs to the bone but will need to re build some in house technical capability, even if it is just enough to be a competent buyer of services from other companies.
I assume that 1 and 4 are probably not very expensive and that 2 may cost more but will presumably be limited initially to doing enough work to attract a farm in partner.

The key statement in the Reserve Report was the comment that no exploration or development wells were drilled in 2022. Given that the broadly static reserve position is hardly surprising. The lack of progress here is simply a reflection of endless delays caused by geographically remote senior management, a government and contractor’s labour forces with a tomorrow will do attitude, difficult negotiations with Shell and cash flow issues due to expected income streams being delayed. Hopefully all concerned will have learned something from a very frustrating period and the start of some decent income streams will help with both exploration and development. Let us hope that the 2023 Reserve Report shows some real progress.

Malcy does not own shares in any company about which he comments.

Aminex is not alone. Look at price falls today on Touchstone and Zephyr. I suspect market sentiment rather than something specific tomAminex.

Holding shares in a company has an opportunity cost in that the money could be doing better in another share. Perhaps a lot of shareholders have lost confidence in both the management of TXP and T&T and are cutting their losses. This plus general market turmoil probably explains the rush to sell on the first bit of good news for months.
The lack of clarity about what happens when in the future may also reflect funding issues. The last straw at the moment would be a share issue at a big discount to fund ongoing investment. If funding is a constraint I would rather they worked within it and do the time consuming bits of planning. Holding off investing in exploration whilst the cash position improves will avoid a need to raise funds or sell out on the cheap.

News flow
The interims RNS says very little about future events beyond what we already know has happened. Ignoring the inevitable delays what news are we supposed to get in say the next six months?

Thebhoys
Personally I hope that nobody buys us until we are further into our multi-well programme. I am not sure about the BP link. My recollection is that the arrangement relates to marketing the oil and/or gas. For all I know BP could do this for lots of small producers of which we are just one. Can anybody cast any light on whether such marketing arrangements are common in the U.S.A?