Member Info for MALBRAD

The LSE record of share trades shows almost all all transactions as sales post the RNS. I have limited knowledge of how to interpret these figures. Am I correct to assume that the suggestion that a large buyer is active is based on the proposition that given the continuing flow of sales the share price would have collapsed more rapidly in the absence of a large buyer, or is there other evidence for the proposition?

The market seems to be ignoring a good RNS so have taken the chance to make another small top up. Perhaps we need a carefully targeted interview again to excite the market.

Thank you all for lots of interesting feedback on the presentation. Could somebody post a link to the recording of the presentation please?

I ampuzzled by these posts. I hold TXP shares in my iSA on my Interactive Investor account. At no point have I been asked to complete any Canadian taxation paperwork. I am aware that the issue arises with dividend payments by U.S.A. registered companies, so for all I know could arise with Canadian companies that pay dividends. However, though Canadian TXP does not yet pay a dividend.

The RNS is very rich on detail and my first reaction is some disappointment at having to work so hard at separating the wood from the trees.
My initial take on the RNS is as follows.
1. The reserve report excludes the results of the key late 2020 exploration drills. So a lot more to
come.
2. Although the recent news focus has been on gas, it seems likely that oil discoveries will
be more important than we previously thought.
3. Although rumoured, the delays in testing recent discoveries are bigger than expected and
should on my view have been clearly signaled via an RNS quite a while ago.
4. The NPV calculations use lower oil prices than those currently prevailing, so the NPV
surplus shown could be larger; tax in T and T is clearly going to become a major burden for TXP
and ongoing capital expenditure is significant even before recent discoveries are considered.
5. We need to know more about how capital expenditure will be financed - do we need to raise
funds or will the build up of exploration and production be slowed down by the need to
generate cash from ongoing production?
At this point I think we need at least two key bits of information next week: a clear timetable re
the results from testing and further exploration and a revised description of TXP and its assets on the company website. If this does not happen then I fear that we may get a frustrating drift down in the share price until the flow test results become available.


4.

Hopefully when the oil flows during testing the market will have the evidence that it wants about the size of the West Newton. I never understood the argument about not needing a flow test and what that idea was supposed to do in terms of market perceptions of what is going on. Realistically I hope the partners do not drift into a shambolic attempt to develop the field themselves. The partners and the web of shareholdings within it adds up to too many cooks spoiling the broth and probably a lack of sufficient depth and width of technical expertise. The opening of a data room for potential buyers will I hope follow the flow tests and help reassure the market about the intentention to sell West Newton.

Thank you all for your helpful comments. Like others I think Malcy's comments are very variable and I am getting a lot better at looking for the gems amongst the also fans. Likewise I agree re the interview that covered too much ground, lacked depth and needed a better interviewer.
What I find interesting re West Newton is the clear decision by the market to either ignore it or by implication decide that none of the companies concerned have yet made out a convincing case about its potential value. I am reassured re reactions here about the choice between Reabold and Union Jack.

Last August I took a small stake in both Union Jack and Reabold in anticipation of success at West Newton. I note that in Malcy's Blog the recommendation is that although Reabold has a direct and indirect interest in West Newton of about 56% compared to Union Jack's direct interest of 16.65 per cent, he recommends investing in Union Jack because Reabold has other oil and gas interests , making Union Jack a purer play re West Newton. This advice puzzles me. Today LSE note the market vapitalidation of Union Jack an Reabold as £31m and £49m respectively. Reabold's assets outside of West Newton are arguably far more significant than Union Jacks other interests and its interest in WN is far larger. What am I missing?

Like many on this board I made a small investment following comments by Simon Thompson. I must admit that the delays are frustrating, though I have the impression from longer term shareholders that delays and overpromising/ underdelivering are normal experience with CHAR. My impression from the last interview was that something was going on re LIXUS/ANCHOISE. The unknown is why a lot of claimed interest in the data room has not so far led to a deal. Do potential partners not believe the geological data or think the costs and potential delays have been underestimated? Alternatively do potential partners have a large choice of what they consider to be better alternative projects to choose from. Or yet again, is the project absolutely fine but are potential partners or CHAR trying to drive too hard a bargain? I don't pretend to know the answers to these questions but those with more experience of CHAR may have interesting insights.
As a final thought, if the project were superb and CHAR was bargaining too hard, it would not cost much to simply buy CHAR and float off the assets outside of Morroco (or are they an all to effective poison pill)?

Apologies-' drilling tests ' should be 'drilling cores'.

Thebhoys
Yes I still have my investment and have averaged down to a bit under 2.8p with 1,550,000 shares overal now. My initial impression is that we got very little new information last night and that we need to watch for the results of the tests on the drilling tests and perhaps a development on the funding side. Possibly relatively quiet until March/April unless we get on the radar of a few commentators such as Malcy's blog.

The revised NPV figures to reflect higher oil prices are encouraging but could just as easily have been provided earlier. Clearly significant new information iwill probably have to await either or both of the results from analyzing the cores and news of a funding partner. I have read the presentation on the company website but were any interesting questions asked by the audience at the Proactive Investors event?

Setanta 1
Thank you for the correction -all very promising.

I suspect that the next significant RNS will be about the results from analyzing the core samples. I think we were told in the video that Zephyr had no control over how long that might take. Given that there will be a lot of samples from multiple layers and that the results are presumably what the public subsidies are all about I am not expecting these to be available in the next few days. I would of course be delighted to be wrong but I think we probably need to be patient for a bit longer yet.

As regards the next TXP I revert to an idea that I have floated before but that attracted only a limited response. Other oil and gas producers in Trinidad will be well aware of the success that TXP is enjoying; consequently one wold expect them to be thinking about whether it would be worth their while copying TXP and sinking deeper exploration wells. I do not know much about the geology of Trinidad but it would surely be a remarkable bit of luck if the geology of where TXP has drilled was unique and hence not replicated elsewhere on the island.
I used to have shares in Columbus but got out when the cheap bid from Bahamas Petroleum surfaced. Whether any of the ex Columbus permits have a similar geology to those held by TXP I do not know. Arguably Bahamas Petroleum is currently drilling a wildcat well that will either shift the share price up a lot if it succeeds or decimate it if it fails. I am tempted to buy a few if the share price gets decimated as Columbus was a well managed company but consider it too risky until the Bahamas well result is known. Can anybody with shares in other oil/gas companies operating in Trinidad help firm up or refute this idea.

Tobin
You ask what if anything can go wrong with TXP. My impression is probably very little in the next year beyond the ever present oil exploration risk of the odd minor delay and perhaps ditto getting production up and running. Longer term I would like to get to know more about the proposed Kraken drill. My understanding is that the target is to hit the same geological formation as many of the successful well drilled off the coast of Guyana and perhaps some of its neighbours. A well on land is much cheaper to drill than one in deep water but the chance of a discovery may for all I know be lower than in the current drilling programme. This matters because past experience of small oil explorers suggests that a failed oil well can have a devastating impact on share prices. At the moment I am not worried about this risk because there are likely to be safer but very rewarding wells that will be drilled ahead of Kraken. That said I don't think that we can automatically assume that Kraken will succeed. I will certainly be trying to find out more about Kraken well before it is drilled.

Thank you all. I note the point re gas and the line in the sand. I agree that if we hear nothing more until Match that is a concern in that the share price is likely to drift in the meantime.

I was not expecting much new information in today's RNS given that it followed the earlier one so quickly. That said I am struggling to be clear about exactly what new information is included. We knew already about lots of presumably relatively shallow stacked reservoirs and the presence of unspecified hydrocarbons in the core samples. Similarly we know that if the results are confirmed they want to do a horizontal drill but will need a permit and funding. I might have missed it but perhaps the mention of a March target re next steps etc is new information.
The discussion re Biden is mostly a repeat of the very clear and helpful comments that we got on the earlier RNS. Can somebody with more technical knowledge than myself post a note highlighting what they think is new in the RNS.

PANR has been lucky compared with 88E who have lost at least six days of drilling time at a key time of the year and are at a clear disadvantage in terms of what they can now achieve within the working window dictated by the weather.
I suspect that longer term the the real threat is not the Federal v State land issue. The more probable concern is whether big oil companies will want the hassle involved in fighting environmentalists when it comes to extracting newly discovered oil on the North Slope. Ultimately exploration companies may need to put together partnerships with other small entities to develop such discoveries. Not necessarily a disaster but it may limit quick buy outs at big premium and take a bit longer.

If my memory is correct , part or perhaps all of the news on Friday had something to do with getting the results from core samples that had been sent to a lab for analysis, so perhaps something about the characteristics of the oil and the permeability of the core material.