RE: Aramco18 Sep 2019 09:01
Bottom line surely is that Trump is an isolationist. He wants US military to withdraw from foreign conflicts, not engage in new ones. That’s why he got rid of Bolton, who looked like an indignant prawn.
Plus, Trump wants to keep the price of oil low. That’s been his declared policy for ages. Important for his re-election prospects next year.
I would therefore expect Trump’s policy of rhetorical bluster (‘locked and loaded’ etc) and sanctions to continue, but for him to avoid triggering a M East conflagration. But of course wars can start more or less by accident and miscalculation, as in August 1914.
In terms of a major attack on Iranian nuclear installations, Israel won’t do it for the US. Immensely difficult technically and risky too, given the distances. Plus it would trigger a war with Hizbollah in Lebanon and probably Hamas in Gaza too. What Israel wants is for the US to do it for Israel.