Member Info for Magsy18

None of the other days where GDR has risen well had been due to a leak and so there was no reason to believe Friday was any different. But as we know many people here prefer hyperbole to reality.

Some countries also have their own additional approvals. France, I believe, for example. If they are referring to additional sales then why didn’t they change the ‘over £1m’ part. Unless of course the sales in Europe were incredibly small.

Either way, how hard is it to be explicit. They go to the trouble of setting up a summary page and yet there are still ambiguities.

We already knew about these first sales as per the 10th July RNS, the new piece of info regarding them is that they were European. That’s my interpretation anyway.

I know it's not GDR related but it displays the quality that we are dealing with here. This is something he posted to twitter yesterday.

"#AMGO - I have no issues with those who banked a profit on Friday but majority of those that did turned around to bash the stock this weekend - same folks will have spent this weekend sleepless wondering how much higher they will end up paying for re-entry. To the shorts - BURN."

AMGO is currently 33% down for the day.

lol

ST and BB have some competition here! Degsy is one of the biggest rampers around.

Go on Degsy, what are you thinking in terms of the share price here?

Your predictions on GDR have proven to be meaningless. Let’s see how your AMGO prediction goes too.

Yeah Naim was pretty small fry, no way he is anywhere near 6 figure positions.

Wow, twitter? Exciting.

Remember that Naim guy from twitter? Looks like his account was suspended. Must of been all of those accurate calls he made, suspected of insider trading.

Based on what you see in these forums, I think you are right ihavenoclue. The filter was made so that weak minded investors can ensure that they only see views that confirm what they want to hear.

Meanwhile, the adults among us will continue to challenge each other with reasonable views.

It’s also worth remembering that we are still due to issue an additional 9-11m shares when BGF convert. Hopefully they choose a time which doesn’t kill momentum.

Absolutely, it should all be taken with a pinch of salt but I would rather base valuations on actual values from a company which has many similarities to ours. Sentiment is something both companies would be impacted by in similar ways and also we are both on AIM which we know can also prevent value being realised.

Using NCYT as a guide is a positive thing though as it shows that with some good, consistent sales we might look at consolidating around £200m which would be great for us.

Yes there is a massive void when you only quote the half of my message that backs up the point you are trying to make. Let me quote the entirety of it.

“Thanks for the numbers Big Al. I think they are optimistic but not unrealistic. Let’s assume we do those numbers.

If you look at the half year report from NCYT they had £63m revenue with an EBITDA of £41m with 90% of that coming in the second quarter. Extrapolating that second quarter over a year, NCYTs numbers would end up being higher than your predictions by quite a bit but they are stuck at a £200m market cap.

Given that the market certainly don’t seem to favour GDR in anyway compared with its peers why would it end up valuing GDR at 50% more than NCYT with lower numbers?”

So as is hopefully obvious by the above, I didn’t take issue with your numbers, just that I didn’t think they supported a £300m market cap.

The best advice I can give Rutends, if you intend to stay around, is to spend a bit of time going through peoples comment history. That will give you a good idea of the types of people you are dealing with.

Yes, I said that I didn’t think your revenue figures were unrealistic. I also said that I don’t believe that they support a £300m valuation in practice.

I would agree that consolidating around £200m is achievable in the next 3 or 4 months but pretty much everything has to go in GDR’s favour from this point on. Nothing has really gone in GDR’s favour the last few months so I am a little wary but some consistent sales figures could quickly change that.

There is also the possibility of a spike in the share price given a flurry of positive news, so even if it doesn’t consolidate around 200p there is an outside chance it could spike to those levels.

Saying that, I like many others here have misjudged GDR over the last few months so...

Yet you direct your question at probably the biggest ramper on the board.

No one on this board can possibly say with any degree of confidence that £300m+ is possible given the last few months. Anyone who does can safely be disregarded in future. The only thing you can learn from asking such a question is the psychology of share forums.

Now, if you want knowledge on the actual industry then technick is the main man for that.

You have been around here a while rbr08, so presumably you have noticed that there are a group of people here who have consistently been spectacularly wrong regarding the share price over the last few months.

You have taken the ridiculous valuation of £300m and you now want some kind of confirmation that something like £350m is now possible. Yes, asking bigbench is probably your best bet in getting this confirmation you desire but again it’s just not helpful.

Something like £300m isn’t impossible but it’s just so unlikely it’s not even worth entertaining. Consolidating around £3 would take a huge amount of fortune from this point on, never mind £5-£6.

My agenda is realism. I knows it’s unpopular as it flies in the face of these pie in the sky predictions but let’s just take a quick look at the share price over the last 3 months.

We are very fortunate that in NCYT we have such a great yardstick to show us some of the future potential we can look forward to if we can start bringing in some decent sales. On the flip side, it does also show that these pie in the sky predictions just aren’t likely to happen. I do understand that you need to speculate on reasons why the NCYT share price is ‘low’ to keep the thought of these ridiculous predictions alive but I just don’t find it helpful.

I obviously can’t rule it out completely but let’s get back to 200p first.

With NCYT, we have seen how the market reacts to some real, significant sales. I am just saying that the numbers that NCYT reported are higher than the numbers in your valuation but the market isn’t valuing NCYT anywhere near £300m.

So unless you don’t think that NCYT are a good benchmark to use to help inform the potential performance of GDR, your figures just don’t seem to correlate with what is happening in reality.

Thanks for the numbers Big Al. I think they are optimistic but not unrealistic. Let’s assume we do those numbers.

If you look at the half year report from NCYT they had £63m revenue with an EBITDA of £41m with 90% of that coming in the second quarter. Extrapolating that second quarter over a year, NCYTs numbers would end up being higher than your predictions by quite a bit but they are stuck at a £200m market cap.

Given that the market certainly don’t seem to favour GDR in anyway compared with its peers why would it end up valuing GDR at 50% more than NCYT with lower numbers?