Member Info for mafioso

MaTerially similar suggests there will be a change to the 920m shares @ 4.3p

By a background seller with rounded block sells.

Last day for warrant holders to exercise extended warrant and provide company with further much needed capital to help meet its funding obligations for rto

Failing that, It is largely left reliant on its £5m CLN facility and it s revenue generating sources to keep operational.

Interims are not due until end of Q1 to give shareholders a view of revenue and cash flows till end of Dec, but there is nothing stopping the BOD providing a brief trading update as a stop gap to provide some further transparency and assurance to shareholders of operational progress being made on cash flow side

Indeed, many early stage growth companies do choose to provide trade update to show rate of progress in between regulatory published results and this help shows confidence to mkt that progress is being made.

Not unreasonable for shareholders to request the BoD to provide brief RNS trading update with some high level figures of past few mths revenue generation to keep shareholders regularly informed and abreast of both operation and financial progress which are the backbone of any aspiring business

Hopefully the BOD would consider this

The mkt mechanics of the latest CLN facility taking effect with each drawdown made.

Shareholders should be familiar with this price action as this was the same situation with Macquarie bank who did something similar as CLG with their facility before Mr Swann swooped in to replace it.

This time tho, 12 mths down the line with lots of promises made by BOD of deals in pipeline and cash flows post EA approval of plant nothing has

So BoD are now relying on Warrants a lifeline to rto to help plug liquidation gap.

340m warrants have been extended and discounted to 1.2p. So just over £4m worth

Alex has said in QnA warrant holders have been given “all the information “ to make a decision.

How generic a sentence is that for investors to draw upon.

But more telling only £100k worth of warrants have been Exercised todate at this 1.2p offer and expiry of this offer was only until 15 Jan.

Clearly this is becoming a case of the warrant holders now telling the BOD we have helped finance these 2 plants, you have hired supposedly industry leading experts in automotive space ealry last year , as advisers, who are going to be on extortionate contract rates, to close deals with automotive companies, so it’s now high time BOD step up to plate and meet investor in middle.

No doubt, pressure and stress levels will be rising with BOx here if this is indeed the case, but this now needs to be done.They can’t keep extracting. funding from investors when they have 2 plants up and running.

It s now time they show investors revenue. It’s all well and good getting plants built and EA approval, but these are all due processes, a business key differentiator is to bring in the business and have consistEnt demand and revenue streams.

Not seen this yet, so hopefully BoD understand once and for all. No more excuses and no s’more handouts.

Deliver those revenues they keeep Telling us of

Elrathia / Deadgrateful,

Thanks for acknowledgment..

This is purely an objective view which is what is needed here to provide some balance.

It’s fine to be optimistic, but it’s when you compare roast interviews with BOD from as recent as 30 Oct 23 following the rns update on rto progress and compare it to the QnA expectation setting and tone changes when requirements for rto become more transparent

2mth ago Alex was quoted as saying they had feedstock coming from all sorts of sources and cash flow was beginning got look healthy and they were now on 3rd round with fca and all on track for sign off end of year.

But Now from a more in depth shareholder led QnA , rto is now end of Q1, 18mth capitalisation hurdle requirement come out no shareholders was made aware of previously , another £5m CLN needed and BOD are still in due diligence talks with likes of OEM manufacturers for feedstock and this according to the.BoD is taking longer than anticipated due DD checks But this was not the case 2 mths ago and nothing like this was mentioned….

All the excuses have now come out form an investor led Q&A which they have always known about but kept from investors when they were doing roast pr interviews.

Investor trust inevitably starts to become tested and this. is a key problem when BOD are not capable of being upfront and transparent when they should be.

Just imagine if QnA , which was shareholder led did not take place here.

No one would be none the wiser.

Anyway, for the rto to get signed off, I believe 18mth capitalisation requirement is the key hurdle left

So 4 possible options

either they need to have have ample cash inflows from feedstock and black mass which doesn’t look likely as you would have expected any big deals with feedstock suppliers to be announced via RNS which has not been the case to date.

OR they get the cash injection from exercised warrants. This has been attempted without much success todate

OR they do anther equity raise via a placing, which will dilute sp and shareholder value even more.

OR they raise required funds through sale of some of their mining exploration licences which will not dilute shareholders and also cut some cost drain

Let’s see if any of these are achieved in Q1

2 mths on since I last posted so where is TM1

Well - another funding facility set up in Jan as predicted this time for £5m.

Still suggests cash burn rate is very close to £500k/mth and still nowhere near cash flow positive whcih Robin suggested back In Sept they would be by end of Nov.

So what else do we know.

Well - thanks to the QnA session e earlier this mth, we’ve now learnt a key piece of information which rto of Recylcus hinges on.

It needs to show an 18mth working capital statement to be able to pass.

In other words, it needs to show it is sufficiently capitalised for 18mths and must not have the need to raise more funds in that time period.

That’s quite a hurdle for a company still no cash flow postive.

So to help tackle that yet another CLN facility has been negotiated for £5m as well as an attempt to extend warrant holders who expired last year to exercise their warrant it’s by Jan.

So challenge here to meet rto hurdles of 18mths.

Worst case scenerio , it Recyclus had zero cash flow ( which is highly unlikely ) then based on estimated run rate, the CLN facility would only last 10-12 mths.

For it to meet the 18mth period, cash inflow would need to be greater than £200k / mth or £2.4m annual for the £5m to last the 18mth requirement. Or alternatively they need the warrants to plug the gap if cash inflows are not there.

So this is the catch 22.

From an investor perspective, it’s clear that regardless of what this BoD have said, particularly Robin Lst year , they are nowhere near cash flow positive given the actions they have had to take.and no one has any idea when it will be.

They have also had the option of reviewing the business strategy and being shrewder of which sources to raise fiancés rather than going to mkt as the have other sellable assets in the form of explorers licenses they could have used.

But yet, you have the likes of Robin preferring to talking about further expansion plans of more recycling plants near term before even have the first cash flow postive and self funded.

This type of business agressovd business. model, is simply. It good for shareholders and shareholder value of BoD needs to constantly come the mkt to raise funds as dilution levels will be crippling. Mcap value might of up, but at the expense of March larger share float and therefore diluted sp.

Given we were told original,t that BOD were supposedly in deal discssuion during the EA approval stage , how they still haven’t closed deals large or small in past 18mths is not what I personally expected and am not surprised warrant holders are not exercising.

This BOD unfortunately are not treating. Investors with respect at all, and are simply. Ot delivering what they have said and promised.

Robin just talks the talk, but nothing else.

More pressure should be placed on them to find. Kre cost savings within or worst case consider sealable assets for the greater good of the company in the king term

Error or massive discounted placing coming?

Mkt probably want to see a truer JORC resource estimate based on sample findings rather than just relying on historical data before revaluing.

But Seller looks like they have got plenty of ammo judging by last few trade days.

Will Need a decent wave of buys to test it more as 400k+ block sells doesn’t seem to be a problem right now

Yes.

All the selling was reactive to buying volumes.

This Was not seller initiated.

Each buy was triple countered with a sell to halt any move.

When buying stopped, selling stopped

Best to feed that back then and see what they say.

So what spread should it be over?

And what were previous intersection like ?

Mkt is reacting with relentless selling.

What a donkey

TW bearcast today talking about a profit warning….

Final point.

Latest loan facility will only carry company till end of Jan.

This appears to be in line of when the BOD are hoping to complete the rest of buY out of Recyclus and an influx of over 35% more shares.

BOD will likely use that major event as an opportune moment to do another placing and a share consolidation in the hope of attracting IIs and fund managers to newly named group

Been a mth since I last posted, so will continue where I left off in my last post.

Click reply if you wish to read the audit trail.

Main aspect of my posts just concentrate on facts derived from RNSes.

No point speculating on anything else when no formal data or info to prove

So As predicted another raise was required completely. early Nov for the the princely sum of £1m .

This maintains the cash burn levels for latter part of 2023 of c £350k / mth or £500k every 6 weeks for the business to operate in a pre revenue state.

However, this latest loan thru inter- related parties that was agreed does not appear good news for the sp but does line the pockets very for the directors and it’s the lenders.

In simple terms, a £1m margin loan facility has been put in place in exchange for nearly 12% of the company in shares.

2 issues I see with this to my mind.

At the time of issuance sp was c1.3p

So effectively lender was given over £2.5m in value shares in return for £1m margin loan

The other issue is here is giving up 12% of company shareholding for only a £1m loan gives the impression (rightly or wrongly ) of nominal value of company of c. £ 8m.

So - crux of matter here. If lender has been given £2.5m of shares (at the time ) to provide a £1m margin facility , what are they gonna do?

Based off recent interview conducted by Robin, he clearly stated that TM1 is still in pre - revenue phase and the hope is for the company to turn cash flow positive in Nov.

Therefore it can be safely assumed for this that up to now that company is still cash flow negative and the cash burn rate which it has been servicing this through regular funding is still valid.

Last fund raise for £700k was in early Sept, and on current burn rate for this year , this would carry until Nov.

So barring any significant uplift in revenues, there is still a strong likelihood further funding still needed to see company thru to year end and this undoubtedly would be a contributing factor weighing down on sp.

The other point is just the slow expected production increase from both battery plant before reaching full production which is talked about in periods of mths still post commissioning rather than weeks which also dents mkt expectation. This is a bit difficult to comprehend when we are told there has lots of businesses waiting on wings to use Recyclus, and it’s was EA sign-off and commissioning holding things back.

Would have thought The Li-batt plant at least, given it passed EA mths ago and been commissioned for mths now should be ramping up to full production IF the demand indicated by Robin was indeed there.

Continuation of audit trail of cash raises I posted earlier

7-Sep - £700k

Cash burn rate remains steady, maybe a touch higher now, probably now accounting for new recruits that joined recently .

This shud last till end of Oct / early Nov

Not much sign of any revenues coming in sufficient enough to reduce this rate, not even a mini trade update has been provided. hmm

I guess we will have to wait till they rns results to see what they have done.

Cash drawdowns 16 Dec - 6 July

These are official figures, so shouldn’t be contested

Audit trail via RNS of drawdowns

16 Dec - £500k

27 Feb - £500k

Both Above came from original £4m loan facility from Macquerie Bank which was opened 6 Dec and then terminated end of Mar due to death spiral share conversions and replaced with below

28 Mar - £2.5m from HNWI

6 Jul - £500k from HNWI

In other words, £4m identified by company as sufficient for launch of at least Wolverhampton plant has now been fully drawdown in 7mths. With the last £500k sum drawn 6 weeks ago.

This should be enough to go on to figure out the run rate of cash on run up to Wolverhampton launch.

Should also add for completeness that in Mar , TM1 was also award £1.96m from Innovate UK but this is solely earmarked for a R&D project to develop mobile recycling trucks so can’t relay on that.

So Now is the key litmus test

We are approaching window whether we will know for sure whether this £4m budget has indeed been sufficient for the Wolverhampton plant to complete commissioning and become fully operational and self sufficient with cash flow from gate fees, new contracts, etc to keep it going with no further financial support

Until I see something officially announced via RNS I’m not going to rely on any podcasts, especially Roast ones around what cash might or might not be being generated

Been here before with CMRS, BEN, CHLL (prev ZOETIC), and others, where perfect world scenarios get drawn up by Kev on revenue streams which are simply nowhere near reality

And judging by recent price action past few weeks, mkt isn’t either.

Haven’t even covered Recyclus buyout yet nor state of play of Tipton plant and what’s still need there. But one hurdle at time here with Robin et Al.

Anyway “ Show me the money Robin” and put it on a RNS to us shareholders please , not via a PR team on a crap pre edited podcast where anything goes.

To my mind this whole investment case right now is a play on gas prices.

Gas prices like coal have benefited from the Ukraine conflict, but historically gas prices have been sub 75p / therm.

Given IOG have had to defer debt payment on bond, at a time where gas prices have approached historic levels, it begs the question what poroduction levels are required to meet cash flow requirements and debt requrirements, etc.

Eg Min production vol @75p/ therm, @100p, @125p , etc is. What we need to understand I think to help make a proper assessment here

This is prob one of 2 things or maybe perhaps both.

Either Another fund raise is a likely possibility.

The cash burn is running @ c.£250k / mth judging by how much and how regularly they have to borrow to date with no prosper revenue streams yet

Other one is the the 100% buy out of Recyclus as this attracts another 900m+ of new shares which is approx 35% share dilution which wud also weigh on sp.

That’s interesting

Recent interview with Jeremy. nailer on IG discussed this holding and brought up chart of Tingo Grp @ 11:45 mark

https://youtu.be/Z7vLERRqpu4