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after losing my shirt yesterday. I took at punt this am at 283. I hope this will finally hold... it's been too damn painful, but I like the restructuring... they are aggressive, but I think it will help them going forward
what do you mean, it's in auction?
I am surprised we are not seeing a big bounce. The dividend was an obvious thing, and frankly I am glad it's out of the way. They are running a business and are adjusting. 85,000 jobs cut is a whole different story. I would have thought, they would cut 10-15% or so... but this number is mind boggling. I am also not sure how this converts to only 1Bn in savings. That would mean that each employee is only worth 11,000... Can anyone explain?
we may or we may not see 350 or 375. Generally, any guess whether 500 or 300 is in the books short term is and remains a guess. I doubt that anyone can really value this business correctly. I see a few things that could be a factor short term. a) will there be any tax loss related selling? b) how much will they reduce the dividends by or cancel them all toghether? c) will they need to do a rights issue? I think a) will happen, but will not weigh too much on the stock. b) is most likely priced it already, and c) well, I am not sure, but the cash buffers seems enough to weather the storm for now, so I wouldn't expect one. All set aside, AAL will be volatile and I think if you are lucky enough, you can catch this at 400, 300 or even below that, I am betting on a recovery of commodities and when that happens, we'll see 1500-2000 and above again, so that's a longer term perspective.
what a POS... relentless shorting on this thing... I quess the commodity sell-off today is just helping, but this is really bad.. I am now long 20K still waiting for a bounce, but I think I am waiting for a miracle
I guess the way the market works right now is like a playing Bingo anyway. Look at the fundamentals of BHP, RIO, Glencore. Is Anglo American really that much worse? Cash is king when the business gets crunched and we certainly have a lot of it, so we'll be among the last companies to fold if worst comes to worst. Also, I think that it's really hard to trade these things unless you go short. As a matter of fact, AAL is so unliked that it will get sold on every uptick. Eventually, someone will end up holding the bag on the short side, I am sure of it. I am trying to build a position here, but need to sell on upticks, so I can handle the drops. Eventually, we will reach a level where I can hold at least half the position for a long term ride.
I sold 2K on the close yesterday and reloaded at an avg of 419 this morning... currently long 8K :) I sure think this is the bottom, but it is painful as well
I have like 150 or so from 1400. However, I have bought 5K today @421. I am only taking a punt here as I think this is overdone. If we break through 400, we'll see much more pain, if we go back to 450, I will be selling half. If we drop below 400 I will sell all and try my luck later again. CRAZY stuf
Well... I wouldn't call myself a long term share holder yet. I am willing to take a punt here and see where it goes. If this drops further, I will most likely sell out and buy it again later.
BTW... here is the note on ABG: High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/98abc19c-1c8e-11e3-a8a3-00144feab7de.html#ixzz2f38OuWM9 A dozen of the 18 companies that are members of the gold council reported costs on an AISC basis for the second quarter of the year. African Barrick Gold and Gold Fields, whose chief executive Nick Holland has been an advocate of more comprehensive cost measures, reported an AISC of $1,416 per ounce. Gold Fields said its AISC was $1,280 without one-off impairments. Only five of the 12 companies said their AISC was less than $1,000 per ounce. I am not sure where the Motley Fools article got the $1500+ ASIC for ABG, but even this 1416 does not look very promising.
ABG is dropping because they just published their ASIC. Apparently they are unprofitable all the way until GP of $1425 http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/98abc19c-1c8e-11e3-a8a3-00144feab7de,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2F98abc19c-1c8e-11e3-a8a3-00144feab7de.html%3Fsiteedition%3Dintl&siteedition=intl&_i_referer=#axzz2f2k33ZxF
I picked some up down here, I don't see ABG losing this much today. It will bounce again as it did the last couple drops. I don't see it going to 160ies again for now. We'll have to wait for the Fed meeting, but we should close around 150 today. G/L all