Member Info for madsktpan

The big ball busters are looking at a Company with a Mkt Cap of a pathetic £9m with no debts.
They will be also looking as much at the grades and the production economics and the IRR. As much as the volume.
With that plus the main man nearing his 80th birthday I find it hugely puzzling there's been no formal tabling of offers. Be it a JV or a purchase. It's also puzzling why there's been absolutely no buying pressure on the stock. Only really more stock being created with 3 Placements in past 6 months.
This only peaked once over 20p. And why was that? Because it followed on from Humphries buying on the open market at 16.5p and loads of the usual PI ramping on various BBs. 100s of posts over a short period of time. I remember it well.

You are wrong Dirkus about Marc. He was there in 2004 almost from the off ref launching on AIM. He was the technical guru and was hugely instrumental in the early success of PGD. He left about 9 years later. But you are right the Company went down the pan soon after. Then Prickett left. Then Humphries.

Humphries purchased on the open market at 16.5p.
Yonks ago of course.
Not sure if that's a measurement of success or failure?
But I guess if you have a generous rolling Option facility it becomes a tad academic.

Just made a purchase - as much to average down as owt else.
I agree if we can get out with 5p it'll be happy days (for me anyway).

Good to see Nickel making a significant recovery with positive future prospects.

Not so sure I totally buy that summary ref PGD (and RP + BH).

Yes, there certainly were 'problems' that arose that they had little control over.
But for me - they had an on-going strategy for several years of spectacularly OVER estimating things and then actually UNDER achieving by some margin. The cash burn for 10 years or so was off the scale. Share price performance wasn't helped by the endless ramping on several BBs citing outrageous target prices for a rumoured buy-out and then soon after a couple of Institutional Investors pulled the plug, mega style.

And then RP and BH 'retired'. Been a long friggin retirement!!! But it was inevitable as both trying to run PGD and LND on a part-time basis for so many years was a nonsense. RP sat in his s****y expensive Mayfair office and BH clocking up air miles every month between Italy, London, Canada & Argentina.

BTW - for my sins still hold both PGD & LND stock.

LND & PGD are entirely different????!!

Both have been mineral exploration companies for past 15-20 years. Both were set-up from Day One by BH & RP. Both had financial benefactors (Huddleston for LND and Miguens for PGD). The only difference I can see is LND is based in Canada and PGD in Argentina. And the grades & volumes were better with PGD.

I would rather judge by actual performance/achievement over a long period of time than wishful thinking over a short period. No matter how positive I felt.

But I'm kinda stuck here now. No point selling. Too much of a loss. Long term holders who never added or traded will never see a positive return here on their investment.

I do agree this next Qtr is a critical period. Not quite make or break. But not far off it.

Being positive and/or negative is irrelevant. Completely pointless.
I look at performance achieved over past 20 years and try and be objective/realistic.
BH is undoubtedly a good geologist and can sniff out minerals.
RP is a waste of space. Being associated with countless failed companies.
Their track record together is poor. Even allowing for BNC. I don't like the way they look after themselves with endless Options that they never get to exercise. Sorry if I'm repeating myself but they made a complete hash of PGD having confidently predicted 200k pa ozs being produced. They built 2 gold mines. Both were failures. Both now closed. PGD shares currently trade in the gutter.

It doesn't matter if they show BAM as having a 2 million oz resource unless they can either flog it or actually mine it profitably. Them increasing the resource to 1.4 with no confirmed end game will be yet another disaster for the PI.

Lest we forget LND was essential a Nickel company for nearly a decade. Interesting:-

"Expectations of booming demand for electric vehicles have bolstered the longer term bull case for nickel, and a supply crunch, following threats of a shutdown of a major Asian supplier only added fuel to the fire on Friday.

Nickel is now up 65% since the start of the year, rocketing more than 8% to $17,695 per tonne in London on Friday, the highest since September 2014. As an indication of just how tight supply has become, in London the spread between spot prices and nickel for delivery in three months spiked to the highest in a decade.

The nickel price jumped to a record high in Shanghai to the equivalent of $18,342 per tonne, surpassing the value of tin on that futures market for the first time."

Well 15 years later (including time trading on TSX) and damn near £50 million cash burn and 12 times more shares in circulation - there has to be an end point in the not too distant future. Be surprised if BH can contribute to many more fundraisers (both in terms of age & available funds). Pretty sure Prickett can't. Hence he hasn't this time.

Okay BH & RP have put a lot in over the years. But they have also trousered a lot out. And no doubt if & when there is a deal to be finalised they will be smelling of far stronger roses than most PIs will. Especially the LTHs.

I find it hard to believe a prospective JV partner(s) hasn't made some sort of approach by now. Informal or not.

What has mainly happened during 2019 (ie 3 fundraisers essentially from the same very small group of individuals for relatively small amounts of working capital) tends to suggest plans are being altered on the hoof and (perhaps) they are being pressed by a credible suitor to provide further concrete evidence that it is worth a formal acquisition offer being tabled.

Any other strategy (given how they are actually playing it) just doesn't make sense, to me.

If I'm wrong - what next????? Another fundraiser in early 2020???????????

and..... let's hope this is simply to signal to any interested buyer that LND have the working capital to carry on. And aren't looking for a fire sale.
JV looking more & more highly unlikely. As surely if there was to be one it'd happened by now????

There we go. Predictable if nowt else!!
More jam tomorrow.

there must be some fundraising being organised. Hence the small value drip-fed sells onto market to lower the price to facilitate a Placement.

Same old. Same old.

I still can't see a JV happening. Surely gone way past that stage now? Got to be a miner/producer to (hopefully) now show interest in making an acquisition. And why would a miner/producer be interested in a partnership with H&P - I can't see the attraction viz-a-viz having outright control & benefit. Unless of course the facts presented by H&P are disputed.

Don't think there was anything there that we didn't already know. Didn't exactly inspire. Hence I guess why the MMs marked it down at open.

This stock once traded at 20p when ALL they had was nickel in the ground and not even enough of it to justify a mine construction!!!

Here we are today trading at less than 1p yet we have circa a GROSS asset value of gold circa $1.6 BILLION (and confidently rising) with a net asset value of circa $400-$500m.

Undervalued????????? The crazy & corrupt world of AIM.

...and the BAM gold is still a valuable asset whether it's in the ground or not. Not worth nothing.

I appreciate that edzi. There's a difference between a book valuation and physical stock worth.

You can own a house valued at £3m but it's worth jack - to you - until you actually sell it. Doesn't mean it's worth nothing until you do sell!! Perhaps not the best analogy but hopefully you get my point.

The BAM gold project has a net value after all in costs (taken from the PEA) with PoG at today's price to my mind of $500 million and hopefully rising the more gold they find.

What would some miner pay a $8 million Market Cap company for that potential revenue?

now over $1500.

All economics here based on PoG being $1300.
So - even if you ignore all the economics as being too bullish and all in costs being an absurd & fantasy $1300 ..... AND they never increase the resource above 1m ozs....................... that's still today a net asset valuation of $200 million!!!!

And here we sit at a Market Cap of $10 million odd.

Bit of a perverse joke.

.......and one final post from me on lest we forget........... this is currently a Company with a poxy Market Cap of £10m.

Must have spent best part of £50m over past 15 years (incl days on TSX) getting to this point. Especially when take into account all that nonsense with Lamaune (£7m debt was it ?). Grrrrrrrrr.

A good advert for why you should never invest in AIM.

mudeye

I note you don't actually dispute my figures of a net margin of $300 and/or the 1m ozs. Which I had admitted was "back of the fag packet calcs" for a valuation. All you say is boll*cks about "that's not how cash flow works". Nobody has said it was!! Certainly not me.
BUT in my opinion both my "back of a fag packet" margin and lifetime revenue figures are VERY conservative numbers. Particularly if PoG stays around where it is today. The PEA was over a 100 pages long and was extremely detailed and I thought tended to highlight the worse case scenario.

I would accept the scorpion nickel project isn't the most exciting. But with your detailed analysis I'd be tempted if I were you to litigate against Humphries & Prickett for serious falsification & misleading statements/comments made previously in ARs and podcasts. Or at very least report them to the FCA for fraudulent activity. After all, Bill & Ben have both said something altogether different regarding the nickel project & on numerous occasions too - to what you maintain - made prior of course to NI tanking worldwide.

......... and I hear what you say about the nickel scorpion zone project. It has been the dogs for almost a decade now mainly due to seriously depressed ni spot price.
BUT to say it has nil value is a tad misleading nonsense.
LND said in an AR that the estimated operation, refining, transportation & smelting costs to be circa $12,000 per tonne for nickel in concentrate. With Nickel currently $14,250 per tonne (and seemingly on the 'up') that's hardly nil value. Last time I looked LND had enough resource to justify a mine. Maybe not for LND.......... but someone else?