We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
Part 3
With 80% of Russian forces being deployed in Ukraine, which neighbor might be tempted to exploit the situation?
It’s an issue of cost-benefit analysis. China would benefit most, but also Japan. Japan has been trying to get the Kuril Islands back for decades, and now we’re reading that some of the submachines and artillery battalions from Kuril that Russia redeployed were killed in Ukraine. Kuril is a disputed territory, there was no peace agreement, so if the Japanese land there, they won’t violate any international law.
China is another issue – can they afford it? For American observers, wouldn’t it better if China showed some interest in Siberia rather than Taiwan? There is much more to gain in Siberia. If there is a new Henry Kissinger sitting somewhere in the depths of the State Department, if they really wanted to do something new, original and creative, they’d strike a deal with Russia – go to Siberia, leave Taiwan. But maybe there are no such people in the State Department.
What would it mean for Georgia and its two Russian-controlled enclaves?
Georgia would have to see how to use this new configuration to its benefits. They would probably be interested in new border concepts with the new neighbors. As for Abkhazia and Ossetia, clearly Russia has more important things to do, seeing as more than 80% of the troops they had there have gone to Ukraine. Ossetia and Abkhazia will feel the heat once things start happening, and they would have to decide, unable to rely on the military power they are used to. The people of those two “republics” will also have their say, with not that much to fear.
Interview by Vazha Tavberidze
https://georgiatoday.ge/prof-alexander-etkind-on-russian-defederalization-and-the-expected-outcomes/
Part 2
Do you expect this defederalization to happen peacefully?
No. The mammoth Soviet Union dismembered itself peacefully, there was not much blood on the streets, but then came war in Chechnya, followed by war in Georgia, and then the war in Ukraine. The violence was delayed, but it happened nevertheless. When it comes to Russia, the best scenario for the dismemberment process is if it follows the established administrative borders and structures. The existing administrations have only rudimentary powers, because they have been curtailed by Putin’s government over decades. They may take power and start negotiating amongst themselves, but, of course, these borders would not satisfy everyone, as they were drawn by Soviet officials.
And Russia will do everything to prevent this development, allowing it only when it is unable not to. But 85% of all the Russian troops are deployed in Ukraine, and they came there from Siberia, Sakhalin, Ossetia, from the Chinese border, where they were stationed for a purpose: the disputed Chinese border has had to be patrolled since the times of the Russian Empire. If something happens, Russia will have either to stop the hostilities in Ukraine and send the troops back, or have no troops available at all. Of course, there is always the nuclear option, although, as Russia hasn’t used them in this major, existential war on the territory of Ukraine, people in all those federal subjects, on the territory of the Russian federation, will have good reason to believe that they won’t be used against them either.
The Russian federation has over 20 federal subjects. Who would you expect to leave if defederalization really happened?
The ethnic republics, especially those with borders with foreign countries. They will have better chances of survival than those who are landlocked within Russia. Sea routes, river routes will also help. Foreign borders, transportation, natural resources, goods to trade with. And, of course, having coherent ethnicity will be a major determinate. In Tatarstan, for example, there are fewer Tatars, because they started viewing themselves as Russians. Identity is changing. Religion will play a role – Islam is blooming. Language issues are critical.
What would happen with Russia’s nuclear arsenal?
That will be a major concern for everyone, despite the treaties of non-proliferation. We know from the Budapest Memorandum that the Ukrainian case has given a very bad example of how it should not work. One scenario will reproduce 1991, where all the missiles and nuclear pride would stay with Moscow, and everyone would sign whatever was necessary and it would be Budapest 2.0. There could be other scenarios, but to talk about them now would be pure speculation.
Prof. Alexander Etkind on Russian Defederalization and the Expected Outcomes
by GEORGIA TODAY August 4, 2022 in Editor's Pick, Newspaper, Politics Reading Time: 4min read
Professor Alexander Etkind
Professor Alexander Etkind
I predict Russia’s defederalization. It’s going to happen, but I can’t predict when. It could happen in a year, or decades from now, – Prof. Alexander Etkind, Russian historian and cultural scientist, Professor of History and the Chair of Russia-Europe Relations at the European University Institute, tells Radio Free Europe. “The key issue is the political economy of oil. All that comes from Siberia goes to Moscow, and Moscow redistributes it. When and if Moscow can’t do it, they will not have these billions. Then people in Chuvashia will be surprised, and people in Chechnya will be protesting, as this is their bread and butter and weapons. And if they don’t have it, they will have to find some other source of existence. It will change things for everyone. Whoever has a river, whoever has access to the sea, railway; whoever has national resources or manufactured goods, or educational facilities to attract foreign students, they will try to get by with that.
“The trigger for this defederalization is the war, which has triggered a chain of events which almost unavoidably leads to the collapse of the Russian Federation. The most important people in this development are the locals, the native peoples of Tatarstan or Bashkortostan, Siberia, northern Russia. They have not been listened to for a very long time, because they had no relevance. Some of them are almost extinct, like the Khanty-Mansy, but some of them are numerous and prolific like the Tatars.”
You claim this disintegration could have been avoided by simply not starting the war. Why was that such a fatal mistake?
There are people who believe that if Russia wins, everything will go back to the status quo of February 23, back to “business as usual”. The “rational elite” hope the damage will be undone and the trade partners will come back to the table, and everything will be fine. There will be losses, but acceptable losses. But even if Russia wins, and I don’t believe it can possibly happen, it will take at least three generations, some 50 years, to create some kind of civil peace with Ukraine. Though technically the sanctions could be stopped or reversed, they will be connected to the reparations of Ukraine. And then of course, there is the tribunal of war crimes, of genocide. It will have material consequences, but people cannot be resurrected; someone who is has been raped cannot be unraped.
Adam Kinzinger Requests HIMARS Be Sent to Georgia
by GEORGIA TODAY August 1, 2022 in Highlights, International, Politics Reading Time: 1min read
Adam Kinzinger Requests HIMARS Be Sent to Georgia
Congressman Adam Kinzinger has requested the transfer of the HIMARS high mobility artillery missile system to Georgia.
The congressman believes that after Russia is humiliated in Ukraine, it may open fire on the territories it occupies.
“Russia occupies 1/3 of the country of Georgia. The Georgian Legion is defending Ukraine…. It seems that after Russia gets humiliated in Ukraine, maybe there will be a fire sale on Russian occupied lands. HIMARS to Georgia!” he wrote.
https://georgiatoday.ge/adam-kinzinger-demands-himars-to-be-transferred-to-georgia/
Kinzinger: We Have No Desire to Involve Georgia in the War, That’s Utterly False
by GEORGIA TODAY August 2, 2022 in Highlights, Politics Reading Time: 1min read
Kinzinger: We Have No Desire to Involve Georgia in the War, That’s Utterly False
We have NO desire to involve Georgia in the war, American Congressman Adam Kinzinger wrote on his Twitter page.
The congressman says the US is trying to end the fighting in Ukraine without Ukraine losing a single inch.
“Regarding the misinformation in the Nation of Georgia, we want to be clear: the US seeks to end the fighting in Ukraine without Ukraine losing a single inch. We have NO desire to involve Georgia in the war. That is utterly false”, he tweeted.
https://georgiatoday.ge/kinzinger-we-have-no-desire-to-involve-georgia-in-the-war-thats-utterly-false/
Part 2
The MPs provide arguments as to why the narrative that America wants to involve Georgia in a war with Russia is disinformation, noting that the US is the main strategic partner of Georgia, which plays the main role in pursuing the policy of non-recognition of the territories occupied by Russia and, accordingly, ensuring territorial integrity and sovereignty, as well as promoting the development of the country’s democracy and prosperity, and supporting NATO membership.
The MPs call on their colleagues in the Parliament to act in accordance with the declared national security interests of the country. They also call on the Government of Georgia to respond in a timely and adequate manner to “the disinformation campaign, which is aimed at strengthening anti-Western sentiments, is directed against Western values ??and weakens the sovereignty and territorial integrity of our country”.
Related Story: Kelly Degnan: Any Attempt to Distance Georgia from Its Natural Allies Only Serves Narrow Interests and Not Interests of Georgian People
https://georgiatoday.ge/several-mps-issue-joint-statement-responding-to-organized-attack-against-us-ambassador/
Several MPs Issue Joint Statement, Responding to Organized Attack Against US Ambassador
by GEORGIA TODAY August 1, 2022 in Highlights, Politics Reading Time: 2min read
Degnan: Any Division Between Georgia, Ukraine Now Only Serves Russia’s Purposes
Members of Parliament Teona Akubardia, Khatuna Samnidze, Tamar Kordzaia, Ana Natsvlishvili and Ana Buchukuri issued a joint statement and responded to the “organized attack against US Ambassador Kelly Degnan and the disinformation narrative suggesting America wants to involve Georgia in a war with Russia”.
The MPs note that this poses a threat to the country’s national security interests and strengthens Russia.
The MPs call on the Government of Georgia to respond to the disinformation campaign promptly and adequately.
“With this joint letter, we would like to respond to the organized attack by a number of members of Georgian Dream, as well as those who have “’left” it, against US Ambassador Kelly Degnan, and their open disinformation narrative, suggesting America wants to drag Georgia into a war with Russia, which strengthens the anti-Western campaign in Georgia and opposes our national interests.
“We believe that the ongoing disinformation campaign poses a threat to our national security interests. That is why we would like to explain to them and to the public once again that the war is the continuation of the policy of Russia and not the West.
“The simple explanation of why the disinformation statements are useful for the Kremlin is as follows: Russia started a war against Georgia, the results of which are the continuous occupation, hundreds of thousands of IDPs in their own homeland, militarization of our regions by Russia and annexation processes.
“The war started by Russia against Georgia is still being carried out by using Russian hybrid war tactics, as long as it is in Russia’s interest to have Georgia in its own sphere of influence and pursue the foreign and domestic policy agenda in accordance with Russian interests. By using hybrid war tactics, Russia confronts the values Georgia shares with the West, which include respect for the principle of the country’s sovereignty, democratization, prosperity and security, as well as the European Union and NATO integration, which will create an umbrella of security and prosperity for the protection of Georgia’s interests,” reads the statement.
Prof. Iver B. Neumann on the Russian Mentality, Putin’s Failing Regime, and What’s Coming Next
'But what’s the point of having more land if the one thing Russia really doesn’t need is more territory? Okay, it will get more depth before St. Petersburg and Moscow for defensive purposes, but it’s swimming in territory. Why take Ossetia? Why take Donbas, when there is so much other territory?'
https://georgiatoday.ge/prof-iver-b-neumann-on-the-russian-mentality-putins-failing-regime-and-whats-coming-next/
IMHO Putin wants territory in the Ukraine and Georgia to stop the development of Oil and Gas fields, which would compete with those in Russia. Disputed territory has until very recently prevented any ambitions of NATO and EU membership. Therefore, this disputed territory also acted like a buffer zone between Russia and the West.
28.07.2022 / 10:42AA
Kelly Degnan at a meeting with Bidzina Ivanishvili - there was never any talk about Georgia's involvement in the war or "blackmail" or actions related to delaying the transfer of money to Bidzina Ivanishvili
US Ambassador to Georgia Kelly Degnan made the first statement in an exclusive interview with "Interpress News" regarding the content of the meeting with former Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili .
In the interview, Kelly Degnan claims that during the meeting with Bidzina Ivanishvili , there was no talk of "Georgia's involvement in Russia's war against Ukraine", or blackmail, or actions related to delaying the transfer of money to Ivanishvili.
"As a rule, we do not talk about personal meetings with the press, but as Mr. Bidzina Ivanishvili confirmed, I last met him on March 21, after which a lot of time passed. Our meetings have always been about the US-Georgia strategic partnership and US efforts to support the development of Georgia's economy, security and democracy. Let me say very clearly so that no one has any more questions - there was never any talk about Georgia's involvement in Russia's war against Ukraine, or about "blackmail" or actions related to delaying the transfer of money to Mr. Ivanishvili. You should contact him or those specific banks on these issues.
When the United States imposes financial sanctions, we announce them publicly. There is a searchable list on the Treasury Department's website where banks, the media and the general public can check who is and is not subject to financial sanctions. Any discussion of Swiss bank accounts is, frankly, a distraction from important work. As Mr. Ivanishvili stated in his July 27 statement, this is a private matter between him and the financial institution," said Kelly Degnan in an interview given to "Interpress News".
27.07.2022 / 16:01AA
Giorgi Gakharia - Ivanishvili's letter is another confirmation that he is behind the ongoing anti-Western propaganda.
All this shows how a person can fall and destroy the myth of his own benevolence, leaving Georgia in isolation and completely alone in the face of the occupying force, - former Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia writes on Twitter, responding to the letter of Bidzina Ivanishvili , the founder of Georgian Dream. .
According to him, Bidzina Ivanishvili is trading Georgia's European future due to personal interests.
"Ivanishvili's letter is another confirmation that he is the one behind the current anti-Western propaganda and is trading Georgia's European future for personal interests. All this shows how a person can fall and destroy the myth of his own benevolence, leaving Georgia in isolation and completely alone in the face of the occupying force," Gakharia wrote.
As a reminder, former Prime Minister of Georgia, founder of "Georgian Dream" Bidzina Ivanishvili issued a statement today. Bidzina Ivanishvili confirms that a meeting took place between her and the US Ambassador to Georgia, Kelly Degnan. As Ivanishvili explains, the meeting was held on March 21 at the ambassador's request and "lasted about three hours".
He also talks about the political situation in the region and notes that today, when the threat of war has been neutralized, the ruling team has the opportunity to shift its attention to the most important priority and ensure that Georgia's relations with the USA and the European Union are not damaged. In addition, as Bidzina Ivanishvili explains, "certain forces actively tried to drag Georgia into the war, and this goal is still relevant today - the ruling team worked correctly and overcame the first stage of the threat of war." In his statement, Ivanishvili evaluates both the situation in the country and the ongoing dispute between him and the Swiss bank and notes that "it doesn't matter what the Swiss bank planned to spend the funds on."
The day's high on TSX was 50c, which is 32p.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/SOLG.TO/overview
https://www.dollars2pounds.com/CAD/GBP
The GD have 6 months to meet the criteria set by the EU. IMHO if they meet the criteria, they will have cut ties with BI and aligned with the West. Alternatively, if the GD continue to keep ties with Russia, via Putin's puppet, then the fight goes on. IMHO until this is resolved, then no money or takeover of Block 12 will be forthcoming and the silence will continue.
BLOE - 16 billion cubic metres is not a threat to Putin's control of the EU gas supply. FRR - 202tcf - 5720 billion cubic metres is a threat to Putin's control of the EU gas supply. IMHO with the Georgian Dream controlled by Putin's puppet, Bidzina Ivanishvili, it explains why there's no extension to the PSA, which would allow a deal with the big boys. Therefore, it's not an indicator that if a company can produce it will get the support they need.
BLOE - 16 billion cubic metres is not a threat to Putin's control of the EU gas supply. FRR - 202tcf - 5720 billion cubic metres is a treat to Putin's control of the EU gas supply. IMHO with the Georgian Dream controlled by Putin's puppet, Bidzina Ivanishvili, it explains why there's no extension to the PSA, which would allow a deal with the big boys. Therefore, it's not an indicator that if a company can produce it will get the support they need.
Contra - That's what I've been stating, based upon the way the GD have been run by Putin's puppet BI, I think the united opposition is more favourable to FRR's success. Whereas, Looed is sure that the shareholders won't be involved if the opposition win. All I'm asking is how he can be sure?
Looed - ' the opposition has looked like being more favourable to a successful outcome for FRR' is NOT 'will automatically be good news for FRC.' When an outcome is 51% and above it has a more favourable chance of success; at 50% it has an equal chance; and at 49% and less, it has a less favourable chance of success. Whereas, automatically good news implies that an outcome has a 100% chance of occurring as a necessary consequence. There's a huge difference between 51%+ and 100%. Stop twisting my words and answer why you are so sure that a win for the united opposition results in a deal without FRR shareholders?
Just to clarify I think there's a 51% + chance of success for FRR and it's shareholders if the GD is ousted. Whereas, you're sure that if the opposition win any deal will not include the shareholders. 'Sure' implies certainty which is 100%.
Looed - How about enlightening us as to why you're sure that if the united opposition wins FRR shareholders will not be involved. The GD have been detrimental to FRR since they came to power and are still controlled by Putin's puppet, Bidzina Ivanishvili.
The opposition is fractured with so many parties, but they're united on one crucial issue. They all want to end the country's rule from Russia through BI and the GD. This is why for most of the 30 seats in the second part of the election, only one candidate was chosen to represent all the parties in the opposition. Therefore, as Putin wants to control the energy supply to Europe, with BI as his puppet controlling the GD, there's little chance of success for FRR (FRR's Block 12 could reduce or even replace Russian O + G).
Looed - That's not the argument, although I will highlight where I have already answered that point. The argument is how can you be sure that if the opposition wins, FRR shareholders will not be involved?
' The drama over the senator letters and other issues ensured vast amounts of publicity and airtime for ZM and the Opposition. I imagine they are heavily indebted to each other and I assume remain so given not one of them has come out and rebuffed ZM. I find that quite telling. Who knows what deals might have been talked about in the event of an opposition win? They didn’t include us shareholders in any such talk that’s for sure.'
I don't have any hard proof. Hence, why I stated:-
'It's possible that both Zaza and SN have tried to work with both sides in Georgia. What we do know is that the GD with BI pulling the strings have not helped expediate the exploration and development of Block 12. Hence, the opposition has looked like being more favourable to a successful outcome for FRR.'
Looed - That's not the argument, although I will highlight where I have already answered that point. The argument is how can you be sure that if the opposition wins, FRR shareholders will not be involved?
' The drama over the senator letters and other issues ensured vast amounts of publicity and airtime for ZM and the Opposition. I imagine they are heavily indebted to each other and I assume remain so given not one of them has come out and rebuffed ZM. I find that quite telling. Who knows what deals might have been talked about in the event of an opposition win? They didn’t include us shareholders in any such talk that’s for sure.'
I don't have any hard proof. Hence, why I stated:-
It's possible that both Zaza and SN have tried to work with both sides in Georgia. What we do know is that the GD with BI pulling the strings have not helped expediate the exploration and development of Block 12. Hence, the opposition has looked like being more favourable to a successful outcome for FRR.