Member Info for Maddog8

We are likely to see the 2020 financial results in May sometime.

Agree with Airlineboy, nothing to worry about here. Just tip of the iceberg at the moment. Once the economy gets going again then we’ll start to see all the private sector relationships kick in, airline travel tests, back to work tests, versalab etc etc. Parts of Europe stating to go back into lockdown, Italy, parts of France. Testing here for couple of years minimum.

What’s even more interesting, Genmark are not even turning in a profit. Although the net loss has reduced to $(18)m in 2020 compared to $(47)m in 2019. Makes Novacyt even more appealing for takeover with our mega net profits margins. Let’s hope that’s way down the line.

The key to making a £30m profit per annum is the deployment of the cash pile that Novacyt will have and spending it wisely. Novacyt bought IT-IS for a net of £6.5m, this smart purchase will probably pay for itself within a year. If we manage to buy a company that already generates c£10m profit for c£100m of the cash we have right now then we are on the right track and almost half way to that target of £30m per annum.
The market is a very funny beast and hard to understand at times when you see some companies with P/E’s into the 100’s with little profit. Be patient and we’ll all be rewarded imho.

Hi Jungla, not sure if you are aware, Throgmorton Trust (THRG) is Blackrock.

3.02% look at the RNS on 26th January, c15k shares lower.

We know that June sales were £22.5m, so I think it’s reasonable that Q3 would have in the region of £75m to £80m with Q4 in the region of £130m to £140m. Also, the contract from the Ukraine in January if my memory is correct for around £12m. Will now be in the region of £50m per month, IMHO.

Note - MAG is a leading UK airport group and owns and operates three UK airports - Manchester, London Stansted, and East Midlands, so if we have a foothold in Manchester then there’s chance we’ll have foothold in East Midlands airport and London Stansted, these airports have c62m passengers each year. So once air travel reopens properly then you potentially have your ongoing revenues for at least a couple of years. Whilst the U.K. is ahead of the game in terms of vaccinations the rest of Europe/ rest if the world lag well behind and will do for a couple of years. So there will be continued need for private testing to enter foreign countries. No need to worry here guys, this is one of the safest investments I have in my portfolio currently.

Soder
That indeed was the beginning of the g16/g32 rollout, by memory I think capacity has increased from c83k per day at the end of Oct-20 to around c195k per day now. That’s an increase of c110k per day. However, the usage figures are only half of that.

neilrich3
I haven’t seen any specific rollout targets other than phase 1 part (a) is worth a minimum of £150m for 14 weeks-ending on volumes.

From the post I made last Sunday, I stated that the Pillar 1 capacity had jumped by c110k per week, starting from c83k on the 25th October and had reached c193k per day by 23rd January. This increase in the pillar 1 is the c300 machines rolled out.
However, the actual usage for Pillar 1 has grown by only few thousand per day.
If the machines are still in the stationary cupboard then we’ll not be getting the £10m per week as per the contract.
This will be one of the reasons Novacyt ended up at £277m instead of >£350m.

PROmate should sort out the initial rollout issues and hopefully can get the machines out of the stationary cupboard and start using them in ernest and start delivering some more revenue.

I may be wrong but look at the governments stats on the split between capacity and actual used of the pillar 1 usage.

I read Poidster’s post, I think the gist was whilst we may have delivered/ installed c300 Q16/32’s it looks like they are not being fully utilised.
Look at the link below from another post last night and click into the data

Pillar 1 capacity around 25/10 was c83k a day and by 21/1 this had increased to c193k a day, a daily increase to capacity of c110k per day. Not sure of the mix between the Q16 and Q32 delivered and daily capacity of each but the c110k would be around the 300 mark.

Now look at the actual usage of pillar over the same timeline, on 25/10 there were c60k tests wand on 21/1 there were c97k tests. The actual do jump around a little on a daily basis. Question, If capacity as gone up c110k a day, why not utilise that capacity?

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing

Nice little valuation based on accounting ratios.
No reason why this this won’t happen once the results confirmed.

https://twitter.com/blackbirdinvest/status/1352573555624587265?s=21

Bowtie, no not me, all my NCYT investment are in my ISA’s. Don’t see your problem, you are currently up c350% in your SIPP, when you come to crystallise your gains and take any money from your pension you’ll just pay tax at your effective tax rate.

There are about a dozen of these funds that are ETFs/trackers/index funds that simply track the shares within the index they are in. Remember, if NCYT share price rises more shares are bought by these index/tracker funds to replicate % NCYT are in the index and likewise if share price falls then the funds will sell the shares. If share price goes up significantly then NCYT may be promoted to other indexes with greater MC, then the process starts all over again.
Think Tesla, moved into the S&P 500, all the trackers for the S&P 500 will then need to buy Tesla stock etc.

wfc61,
ISA’s are free of all taxes (income tax and CGT), SIPP pension is free of CGT but will be subject to income tax when put into drawdown at your nominal tax rate, 20%, 40% or 45% etc.
Mad dog

Patience is the key now, Just need to chill and relax the business will do the rest.

Quote from article “ Novacyt’s short-term outlook looks exactly the same as it did a few weeks ago. Confirmation of huge profits, imminent contract extension, and clarification of the following are always expectations of investors to break new ground. The news of the promising COVID-19 candidate will not change this, as it will still take months before it becomes a reality”.

https://eminetra.co.uk/novacyts-share-price-bounce-indicates-that-covid-19-shares-may-have-fallen-but-stock-prices-have-not-fallen/92508/

Just come across this tonight.
Nice listen - Novacyt from 2’40”

https://audioboom.com/posts/7724638-research-talks-novacyt-catenae-destiny-avacta

I think the difference between the £250m and £406m will be due to price and volume mix. The £250m over the 6 months will be based on a set volume and price, for example, at the standard price of the covid test at £8 with volume of 1.2 tests a week. However, if the volume used starts to include the Winterplex tests then the volume maybe the same as the contract but the price mix is different, as the Winterplex will be charged at £40+. So the price of the contract starts to increase beyond the initial £250m.

ShaunP
Your comment
“So their holding is now 5.4% of their total fund, compared to 2.3% as at the end of August, thus good performance”.

I’m with HL and can see that the octopus total fund is now worth £45m with the Novacyt holding representing 2.03% which would be c£0.9m. However, I’m not sure how often the top ten holdings are refreshed.
The last fact sheet was dated 31st August with the NCYT holding being 2.3% at that point.