Member Info for madchick

Becker interview http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/stocktube/4879/iofina-chief-pleasantly-pleased-with-first-quarter-production-performance-4879.html Telegraph rates IOF a trading BUY http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/04/11/questor-share-tip-iofina-shares-soar-85pc-in-one-day/ Production costs around 22.5 USD http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/308682/how-iofina-surged-150 Hopefully the press will give us some more momentum tomorrow (sorry NMH19!)

If you are bothering to read through all the posts - just wanted to say that it's nice to see you posting here! I'm out of SXX and wish I'd bought back in at the 14p mark recently (thought about it, but didn't have money).

This is a good RNS - despite previous warnings that production may fall by up to 10%, ioodine production wasn't affected and even increased slightly (they are looking to move IO.1 to a better site, so it's not ominous that it was closed, for those who don't know). Despite restrictions in the regions, there's still more than enough brine for iofina to be able to handle. Minimum expectation is to keep production as it currently is, but main hope is to expand production at current sites. The tie in to the networks is about to start and won't cost much (for big reduction in risk). They are now producing iodine at significantly lower cost Iodine prices appear to be stabilising... Turning point at long last, I think! Would just have liked a statement about being operationally robust and still aiming to be cash flow positive and it would have been perfect.

If you think the bulletin boards are farcical, try these two internet sites http://www.smallcapwired.com/iofina-plc-cant-be-more-risky-trades-sigfnicicantly-lower/93885/ March 16th The stock decreased 5.89% or GBX 0.39 on March 16 ...The move comes after 5 months negative chart setup for the GBX 7.94 million company. http://www.riversidegazette.com/iofina-plc-cant-be-more-safe-trades-significantly-higher/ March 17th The stock increased 19.25% or GBX 1.2 on March 17,,, The move comes after 7 months positive chart setup for the GBX 9.41 million company. At least the one with the bullish report can at least spell correctly :-)

I should also say that IOF was EBITDA positive in H1 last year (294 MT). In January, they stated the following: These [cost-cutting] measures are expected to protect the Company's cash position and have a positive impact on the Company's gross margins for the current financial year as it moves toward cashflow positive operations. In H2 they produced 275 MT, so they appear to be just on the brink of becoming cash-flow positive, but continued cost-cutting and / or if injection restrictions no longer impact the company, this could be the equivalent of becoming cash-flow positive. Additionally if they move IO.1 and get it up and running, we can quickly expect better performance. It won't take much to tip it into positive territory (IMO). Their target for H! is 250-270 MT, which isn't great, but I would hope is over-cautious. And, as I say, we have the addition of IO1 back into the mix at some point...

Hi rheuking, Ridiculously oversold today - bizarre reaction. I sold approx 15% of my shares at 14.5p and bought them back at 8.5p (a while ago, not today, obviously!). Relieved to see the SP recovered a bit towards the end of the day. It's just a sit tight and wait thing at the moment (wait for the iodine price to rise, wait for IOF to move IO.1 and maybe add another plant, wait for financials, wait for Q1 update; JR results not expected until Q2).

Best wishes to Neil Hekking and his family. For an RNS of that kind, I thought this was the best written one I've ever seen. Clear reasons given for the departure, without giving away too much personal information to protect his private life. Immediate interim solution in place with reasons and background. A goodbye statement from the outgoing CFO to confirm that nothing untoward is going on. For one horrible moment, I thought Lance was leaving!

Sometimes, I surprise myself!

is at 8p, next week may get to 9p or higher, not far from 10p

Naphar - yes, you're right. Apologies for the error. Brutal day today. :-(

Not an RNS that will reassure the markets, I fear, although they are doing all the right things. They missed the H2 target, due to the adverse weather conditions, and only by 8 MT, but still disappointing, I feel. Nevertheless, they've come a long way since this time last year. They are attempting to mitigate risk and increase brine supply - all good, but not yet achieved, so I think the market will wait (and really, what else would you expect them to say?). Under current conditions it appears they cannot hold to last year's record production rates, but there should be improvements ahead and my belief is that they will have made up ground by the end of the year. This reduction in expectations, too, should be expected given previous RNSs about the impact of the earthquakes and although the reduction in production in current conditions is not much, my suspicion is that the markets will not find a reason to invest just now. Iofina Chemical, as always, seems to be doing very well. They are moving towards cash-flow positive - so obviously not yet. Also a bit disappointing, to be honest. An honest RNS,warts and all. If iodine prices increase, as appears now to be the strategy from SQM (from report I posted), then H2 could look very different. IMO. No immediate relief, though. That's my take on it!

Iodine prices decreased significantly over the last two years because there was a global surplus of iodine. According to Global Industry Analysts, worldwide iodine consumption in 2014 was 28,110 metric tons and global production was 30,300 metric tons which created a 2,190 metric ton surplus. However, this surplus won't last. Global iodine consumption is predicted to increase to 36,300 metric tons by 2017 but based on an average annualized growth rate of 3.3% for iodine production (calculated from US Geological Survey Data), global iodine production will only be 33,300 metric tons which leaves a supply deficit of 3,000 metric tons. The global iodine supply deficit will push prices higher, back near 2014 levels. The decline in revenue from the Iodine Segment is closely correlated to the decline in the stock price. As global iodine prices rebound, revenue and gross profit from SQM's Iodine Segment will increase and the stock price should follow. hTTp://seekingalpha.com/article/3811386-sqm-poised-to-grow-profits-on-rebounding-iodine-market-rapidly-growing-lithium-market?auth_param=mq6dn:1b9g38k:c7a47aeed0c348819ab299a8cc6b49ec&uprof=45&dr=1#alt1

iii had a couple of articles on IOF in late Nov. Here's the most recent one (aimed at traders): http://www.iii.co.uk/news-opinion/trends-and-targets/trends-and-targets-25112015 Not sure this site will allow the link, but pop over to the bulletin board as they are posted over there from the Editor.

I'm pretty busy in the run up to Christmas, so haven't had time to compose a post (but did over on ADVFN). I can't see Hawk's posts but escape correctly said I'd sold a few (only a small proportion of my total holding) for trading purposes and in the hope of buying in lower. I didn't post on the day of the RNS (which was when I sold) because i didn't want to be accused of talking down the SP. I stress that for better or worse I still hold the vast majority of my shares (not that anyone should care). My reasons for trying - rarely - to trade a few was that I don't see this issue being resolved quickly and it will leave a lot of uncertainty which will cause weakness in the SP. The SP weakens anyway over time even when the company is known to be doing just fine, so with increasing uncertainty, I could'nt see it doing anything else. I think the company will announce profit in January (or whenever the next update is due). It would be nice if by then they could inform the market of any change of strategy (eg, change location of next plant, swap to mobiles, use inventory for derivatives side rather than aim for large sales agreement and just move IO.1 and not build a new plant). If they don't announce or reconfirm their strategy fairly soon but deliberate too long, there may just be greater uncertainty about the company's future. The company itself is, IMO, likely still to be doing OK just holding steady, but no excitement. Possible upsides would be them bringing forward a sales agreement to fund a new plant and hence guarantee the supply and decrease OPEX, which maybe they were holding off due to low iodine prices but now think it's better to do to mitigate risk of reduced brine availability. They may announce no difference to brine input. They may announce moving IO.1. Any of these, along with a profit announcement, should give a strong boost to the SP, so I see my trading stategy as risky (I didn't buy back in today, as much because I am too busy to be online during the day just now as anything else and there's rarely just one chance at anything on the markets; and I'd like to see where this is going for now, even if it means I lose). Additionally, guidance has not changed. Given the last guidance, they were predicting enough spare cash to move IO.1 and build a new plant (if I recall correctly). Therefore, these plans shouldn't change because their income will still have been the same. They need to have the extra production now more than before. So, with reassurance of that in the new year, I think IOF will recover. Just my opinion.

I think the BB is quiet because there's nothing really to look forward to in the short term, apart from a rise in iodine prices, and I'm not sure the market will take much notice until IOF demonstrate what that means to them. I guess the next thing will be a quarterly production report, which we will get in Jan, which will hopefully indicate we achieved our H2 target. If we are very lucky they will announce a target upgrade in Dec, but I think it very unlikely. The only other thing that might occur is a large sales agreement for iodine, but I think they will be hanging on until iodine prices rise a bit first; also there's no hurry for the money as it's winter and they can't start moving or building plants. Still, happy (touch wood) that the SP is at least holding for now.

I guess different people like to operate in different ways. I like to have my overall average so I know how I'm doing overall. I rarely trade (I think I did it only once on iofina in the last seven years or whatever it is, but not particularly well - roughly breakeven after costs!) because you need fairly large sums to make it worthwhile (that's if you get it right in the first place) and I want to retain my holding here. I'd find it difficult keeping a track of which batches I'd sold unless I kept an overall average. I sometimes sell and then recalculate the average if I want to comfort myself by telling myself I sold the cheaper shares, but then the average of the remaining shares goes up, of course. Horses for courses, I suppose!

My ambitions are still high - just a question of when. But we are where we are just now, so for now I'm just praying that we don't retrace back to sub-20! I think one thing holding this back is the lack of known news in the offing - water will be a while (could be a blessing or a curse), winter is upon us, so no plant moves until next year (as always stated) and even if iodine price goes up, I suspect they won't build a new plant until Spring. On the other hand if the iodine price does go up, IOF will benefit already from that, but I'm not sure the market will realise. The advantage for us is that it makes the shares very cheap. I bought some sub-20p, but not enough to make much difference to my average at this stage, so the depression kind of outweighs the greed! Iofina isn't as risky as many oil shares where you are gambling on a successful outcome; it's in a safe market with a demand for their product, they've brought down the cost of production, existing plants have been maximised without any great expenditure, they've identified the next two sites which will be comparable to their most efficient site. The ducks are lined up.

Good, sober update. They should make their H2 target easily and even with disruptions they've managed over 45 MT a month. Great progress, really. I wonder if the new contract is just a renewal of the governmental (fisheries?) 5-year one that's just expired or if it's a new bulk customer. Surprised to get an update on the water - no news until around June next year, so good to have expectations realistic.

In case anyone doesn't realise, you can filter users by using the Filter tab (at the top of the chat if you are posting - or click on a page number to view the tabs for share chat, premium chat, and filters). Just click on the Filters tab, enter the person's name in (make sure it's written accurately!) and then all their posts disappear completely.

The RNS was much as expected - nothing to set the world on fire, but steady progress. EBITDA postive with substantial increase since last year. The results are up to June, and had only a loss of under 500k, substanitally less than last year and I would expect maybe touch into profit overall for 2015 now, as long as the SWD downtimes weren't too severe. They say they remain on track. On track to become second largest US producer of iodine was a nice headline. Plans for near-term expansion settled (although no timeline given). Inventory holding back the cash position but is a necessary strategic move. We knew that. We just need iodine prices to rise and Chile is getting to be more and more of a mess - a pack of cards waiting to fall. Pretty much as I was expecting - nothing disastrous, nothing breathtakingly good.