Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
@Richard365054
Great post and I feel very similar to you after todays results. I think overall they are a decent set of results, and it’s clear that the money raised last year has been put to good use, although the debt level is still rather high, and the company is still exposed to rising global interest rates and US Dollar strength. But it’s good to see that the cash reserve has increased, and it’s also quite clear that a lot of the raise was used towards future development costs. I think in the current environment it is difficult and perhaps somewhat foolhardy for LS or anyone else to suggest a precise time line for the updates. They have done that before, and have failed to deliver, as you pointed out. This stuff takes a lot of time and money as we all know. Having said that, I have read elsewhere that the revised DB11, or whatever it will be called, will be getting a public reveal in May. If AML revert to type, that would suggest that potential customers may get private viewings soon. I am not one of them, so I don’t know for sure, but that is their usual MO. As the previous DB11 was the first model released under the AP era, it would naturally follow that new new Vantage (can we call it that?!) is likely to be revealed towards the end of this year. I would expect that most of the upgrades to the GT cars will be to the interiors, and perhaps invisible upgrades under the skin, as big changes to the metal (which new new Vantage possibly needs more than any of the others) will require resources which AML may not have. Feels like 2023 could be an interesting year though. Fingers crossed.
Most of the articles I have read in the public domain, ie the automotive and financial press suggest that the claim is for around £150 Mio. If the case is private and the details are not made public how do you “know” so much more than anyone else on here? Have you finally let your employers name slip out of the bag?
Isn’t this September data just for the U.K. though? The link posted earlier is from SMMT so covers U.K. sales only, and if anyone can be bothered to look at the YTD numbers rather than just focussing on one month, the AM number is actually a smidge higher than last year. The 20% fall for September sounds large, but it only represents 33 vehicles and the U.K. is nowhere near the largest market for AM anymore, as everyone on here should know. I am happy to wait for the official publication of Q3 and Full 2022 data from AM rather than focussing on and highlighting one tiny aspect.
SoS
I’m a little surprised that the upgrades would be released in that order. DB11 is the oldest car in the current GT range, and the mule has already been spotted, but to my mind the priority should really be “New New Vantage.” New Vantage never really hit the heights of the previous Gaydon generation cars, and it was way off the mark in many areas for existing customers who may have considered upgrading. It should have been the volume seller and as such it is in desperate need of a big revamp, both inside and out. DBSS and DB11 less so imho. DBX707 is a beast. It is at last the car it should have been from the start, and I suspect the numbers for that model will improve as the year progresses, as existing owners upgrade, and new orders get fulfilled. I also suspect it will take orders away from the base model. Thank you for your report.
I posted the Autocar link to the Bentley results earlier. The numbers are certainly impressive but they don’t highlight the full story. One of the main reasons for their ability to withstand the supply chain issues was that VW gave them priority within their group for essential components, at the expense of some of their other marques eg Audi, Skoda etc. That’s one of the advantages of having their backing. AM does not have that, despite the small involvement from Daimler MB. It’s not too difficult to understand.
I’m not going to get involved with the usual tit for tat bickering on here. The numbers this morning speak for themselves. The war and the economic after effects have hit AM hard, more so than the pandemic and the lockdowns. That’s no big surprise really. If things continue as they are I guess the recent cash injection will just kick the can down the road. But as I have said before the only solution in my eyes will be acquisition by a larger parent company. Compare and contrast todays releases.
https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/business-dealership%2C-sales-and-marketing/bentley-breaks-yearly-profits-record-within-first
Sebastian Vettel hasn’t left yet. He has announced his retirement, with the intention to finish at the end of the current F1 season. He will continue to drive for AMR until then, and the last race is in Abu Dhabi 18th-20th November. So there is plenty of time to line up a replacement and it’s possible that AMR knew this was coming anyway. Perhaps Stroll may get asked a question on the subject during tomorrows Q&A.
SOS
Assuming we are talking about the RI which took place in April 2020 at 30p then I agree with you. I received a letter through the post from the registrar explaining my options. From memory my full rights were somewhere in the region of 80% of my holding at that time. So the claim that retail investors were barred from that process is simply untrue.
JC
Exactly. Well said. Our “friend” on here just likes to continually include the Nebula situation in the repetitive diatribe of all things bad, and possible outcomes, as yet unknown. Thanks for your comments on Valkyrie etc. Imho there really is no point discussing this case any further though, until we know the full outcome. Nice evening all.
The Nebula case has yet to be decided, and the date of the hearing has yet to be released too. £210 Mio in royalties equates to sales worth £5.25 Bln. But we are continually being told that in the current and future environment AMs car sales are going to collapse, and Valkyrie and the other mid engined cars are a complete disaster. So how can they justify that number? We have heard it enough times and constant repetition makes no difference. The case is certainly a potential threat, but until it’s actually decided and settled either way, it’s all conjecture.
Vorlich and Richard
Is it possible it’s the official reveal of V12 Vantage Roadster? I’d be a little disappointed if that’s the case as it’s been known for a fair while that a Roadster version was in the pipeline despite constant denial from AM. Let’s hope it’s something completely new. We shall see I guess.
Doyezee,
CC posted some pictures of his new V12V just over a week ago on another forum and he said he was taking it to Belgium to give it a proper drive. Personally I’m still not totally sold on the interior as imho it’s far too similar, apart from the seats, to standard Vantage. But the exterior colour he chose is sublime and it matches the interior scheme very well indeed. It is a very striking car. Customer deliveries are starting to gather pace now and hopefully the same thing will happen soon with DBX707. So I doubt he has had the time to look on here at most of the recent nonsense (last few days excepted of course) that has been posted.
I’m not sure what the new car is as suggested by todays teaser from AM. But it sounds very interesting. If I hear anything, I’ll post it (if I can).
As an aside, I guess our old “friend” on here has had a couple of days off. Quelle surprise……zzzz.
Ultimately every share holder will have a decision to make. Whether or not you decide to take up your entitlement will depend on your individual circumstances, but the main factors are likely to be the discounted price, and the percentage of your holding that is permitted. It’s a similar situation to April 2020 when existing share holders were offered more shares at 30p. That was of course before the 1/20 split that took place at the end of that year. We will have to wait until we know the full details of the offer, but I would expect that the vast majority of retail share holders will take up their full rights.
Personally I think very good things are happening at Lotus and their future looks bright. More so than AM right here right now. They are backed by Geely and Simon Lane who used to be the head of the Q department at AM went to work for them a few months ago too. The new Emira is a fine car and could well poach buyers from AM. It is very well priced, looks good and has a new modern fresh interior. It is exactly what new Vantage should have been five years ago. Palmer and Reichman get the blame for that one of course, and one of them is still working for AM……why oh why? Imho Lotus will have very little trouble selling loads of them.
Well said Richard. I watched the qualifying live this afternoon and the rain, although forecast, came in quite quickly, so I think you’re spot on. They just didn’t have the time to get the right tyres ready. Whether that was an error on AMs part or not I don’t know, but as you say, it’s very easy to be critical.
It’s definitely a big success story, but there is one crucial difference when comparing them to AM. Bentley has had the backing of VW (and also BMW in the early days) since 1998. That’s nearly a quarter of a century. In that time they have invested over $2 Bln and have almost trebled the number of people working there. The number of units produced has soared because they have created the right products at the right time, to a standard of fit and finish that AM can only dream of. Since Ford backed out in 2007, AM has not had that kind of backing. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. AM will not be able to continue as they currently are without being swallowed up by a large and liquid parent company. Who that will be I don’t know, and the route taken to get to that point could well be painful. I think it’s the only way to ensure their survival, otherwise they will end up being another famous British marque consigned to the ashes. That would be a tragic ending to almost 110 years of history.
Thanks for the clarification Carpy.
I have found this although I’m not sure of the exact date. This was issued before the 1/20 split (hence the 62.317p) and the quote ties in with my comment re £12.46 as the agreed price threshold. From what you’ve said the liability in that case only extends to an additional 8% and the cash payment is only enforceable if the share price remains below that level. So not quite as bad as perhaps thought.
Financial terms of the Strategic Cooperation Agreement
In consideration for the technology and critical intellectual property that Mercedes-Benz AG will make available to Aston Martin, Aston Martin proposes to issue new ordinary shares to Mercedes-Benz AG (the “Consideration Shares”), with a maximum value of up to approximately £286 million (at a price equivalent to approximately 62.317p per new ordinary share, being the “Mercedes-Benz AG Entry Price”), as further detailed below.
The Consideration Shares are expected to be issued in several stages, mirroring Aston Martin’s access to the new technology of an equivalent value. It is anticipated that:Aston Martin expects to issue the first tranche of Consideration Shares to Mercedes-Benz AG with a value equivalent to £140 million by no later than 31 December 2020, subject to fulfilment of regulatory and other conditions.From that first issuance of Consideration Shares, Aston Martin will receive access to the first technology basket, which will include engine and powertrain technology and state-of-the-art E/E architecture.No later than by early 2022, Aston Martin expects to issue further Consideration Shares to Mercedes-Benz AG, reflecting the value of the second technology basket received at that time, which will be mainly focused on battery electric vehicle technology. Aston Martin may continue to receive access to additional technology throughout 2022, in return for issuing additional Consideration Shares to Mercedes-Benz AG, until the total value of all Consideration Shares issued reaches £286 million. If the ordinary share trading price on the date any further Consideration Shares (beyond the first issue) are issued is below the Mercedes-Benz AG Entry Price, Aston Martin will be required to compensate Mercedes-Benz AG for the difference between the two prices by making a further cash payment (on a per share basis).If the value of such access to technology surpasses the total value of Consideration Shares being issued, Aston Martin will top Mercedes-Benz AG up with a cash payment, subject to a maximum cap of £28.6m.All Consideration Shares are expected to have been issued by no later than early 2023.
I may be mistaken but do Mercedes actually own 20% of AM right now? I was under the impression that their current holding is closer to 5% and the transition to 20% would be completed at some point in late 2023 in exchange for more tech/engines/drivetrains etc. Either tranches of extra shares will need to be issued, or cash payments will have to be made, depending on the level of the AM share price. From memory the pivot point was £12.46, hence why at current levels, the deal creates a future cash liability for AM. I am happy to be corrected if anyone knows differently though.
C26 has told us on numerous occasions that AM has already lost the Nebula case, despite the official AM line, and as we know he has been unable to provide any evidence to back up that claim. Yet here he is once again quoting excerpts (not really necessary thank you as I’m perfectly capable of reading the article myself) from SSO/Karenable who states that the outcome is as yet unknown. So who is right?