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Presumably getting hold of the shares in good time to trade them - means news might be soon.
Mr Slong. Since I've been doing these sorts of calcs for the institutions for more than 40 yrs - and getting them right - you're strictures are rather silly. You seem to have no conception of what the fund raisings are used for - which is to pay Kibo's bills and pay for its share of projects. Do try and work out what they will amount to over the next five years - and what earnings and - more importantly - cash flow they will (or won't) earn for kibo. If you can do the maths which seems unllkely, you might get a shock.
O&W tidd - You don't think investors are going to pay up at the moment do you, for what is a fantasy speculation a long way ahead ? You say yourselves the Dec presentation is all we can go on, and the calcs are based on it. The co isn't going to say any differently and won't be agreeing with my forecast of at least 1.5bn shares in issue by first meaningful income so there's no point asking them. Have you ever known a company to admit what a sensible, cautious, investor should be anticipating ? I stick with my first impression. The 'jam' is too far ahead and so are the shares.
Re 18%. That's what I roughly estimate is the proportion of the £100m equity (35% of total project cost) that INFAs past and FEED spending will 'buy'. If it has more than that, the other funders' returns on their investment will be lower than the project return, so they will in effect have to agree to give some of their expected 'profit' to INFA. Its not likely, and never happens with eg power plants. (Don't confuse with 'free carries' given to farm-in partners on exploration projects. They make sense there because scope increasing a resource. There's no such scope in this case). If there is some form of extra 'reward' to INFA, it can't be very much - so 18% is a conservative estimate. My full calcs based on the cash flow chart (more accurate than any NPV base) will be you know where.
The cash flow profile gives you the best guide to a likely share price - once you've settled the % project ownership. Outside investors (being discussed now) will take the majority. I estimtate INFA will have 18% (based on industry practice) That means 11.6p x 18% = 2p based on that NPV - except that share prices never achieve an NPV based price for perfectly logical reasons - and is not before full revenues in 2026. (All based on situation as at shareholder presentation)
I'm interested in all these project related stories and have followed (and written about) them for many years - thank you very much. They are all magnets for those misunderstand how their financing works (or doesn't work) for investors.
govt to govt merely means guarantees. Financing will still be via govt supported 'companies' (like Power China) and they will put up the funds and take stakes. Makes no difference to the 'sponsor's position. They're not going to be 'given' anything. See ORCP's news releases.
Beware these sorts of stocks. Many hurdles and lots of cash raises before anything happens. Its impossible at this stage to know how much value will rub off on GCM, given that partners will be putting up nearly all the c$6bn needed. Take heed of Kibo's EDL's and ORCP's histories. The only reliable near term coal-to-power stock at present is NCCL.
Heffalump -I'm not touching IFA at this stage. Its too high, and I'm merely cautioning that there'e a very long time to go before any income. I'll tell you when I trade - if I do. My money's in more reliable medium term stocks ! Wouldn't have made much after costs anyway !
Its the only place you'll find proper research, (amid some dross admittedly) and opinions not deleted by snowflakes.
Doesn't alter my point. Many investors, such as pension funds, are looking for long term sources of reliable income, which Islandmagee promises to deliver, and which are sometimes hard to find. While some equity investors might welcome the riskier, geared up return that debt will provide, it might be that the co will prefer the really large investors wanting the largest chunk possible delivering the ungeared return that satisfies them, and who will be there to provide further funds for any later investment. If that's the case, an EU grant not only won't be necessary, but may not be offered. And I believe the latest economics (Will the co announce them ?) show a project irr above 13% - which should b enough for those investors without debt gearing. But I stand to be corrected on that.
Just for perspective, my own calcs to be posted 'over there' show that a £40m EU grant, with the same debt/equity ratio as at the co's Dec presentation, would increase cash flow to the equity investors by 24%. Doesn't mean that's what I forecast will happen.
O&W Correction. I mean project equity. Not INFA
O&W Has my latest reply been deleted again ? Is it that aunty creature ?<br /> I'll repost a bit later (also on t he other place) and get Scott Grant to tell his team to act more responsibly. Meanwhile my point is that there is clearly enough investor interest to make a govt or EU loan an unnecessary use of taxpayers' money. The co has said (hasn't it?) that investors are asking to invest in phase 1 without any debt funding, which means they want to load up with INFA equity.
Is your definition of a troll, someone who injects reality onto the board ? If so, grow up, and go somewhere else.
O&W Why was my reply to you yesterday deleted ? Who by ? I said that if there are enough investors willing to support Islandmagee, the EU would b remiss in offering a grant from public funds. It seems enough investors might have come forward since the co applied for the grant to make it unnecessary. The co will have to ensure the investors will sign up before making any comment or withdrawing its application.
I hope you're not bringing the habit from another board of having posts you don't like deleted. Infantile in the extreme.
Not aware that the EU is 'having' to step in ! If all the equity providers are lined up, (and there seem t be plenty of applicants) there won't be a need for a grant.
Sleepy - thanks for courteous reply. Maybe the discourteous clappies are fading away / licking their wounds / trying, and failing, to explain to 'er indoors why they've thrown away all their pension !
The key to take away from SXX is that the shares have gone nowhere - despite that its 'size' (assets employed) has grown 4.6 times in last three years. That is what has been happening to Kibo and will continue to happen. LC didn't tell you that. (But I don't think he even realised it !)
BB - LC has actually lost investors 95% since he arrived in Aug 2012 (equivalent share price then 45p) . He then stuffed previous shareholders, when the Mzuri shareholders whose so-called 'mining projects' he had been brought in to 'manage and develop' mostly all sold out - forcing the 1:15 share consolidation in March 2013 which lost LC all credibility - and is why no serious institution has ever wanted to touch Kibo ever since.
Always good to know a CEO's history of competence !
It IS possible to work out what potential Kibo has from now on - ie the upside (but not before 5 years time) - and will be set out where the clappies can't delete it. But there are many potholes on the way, and anyone buying now is being foolhardy. Reasons for the downside will also be set out you know where.