Member Info for Lubumbashi

At the time of the Outrider debt conversion and Stephen Hope's appointment to the BoD a couple of service providers were paid out in shares. It was several 100m shares. Market movement at the time suggested that those shares were then sold at a pre-determined price to a 3rd party. I raised the possibility that the purchaser was Outrider and/or Hope which justified his appointment, this was never confirmed. Now for the theory. What if our 15m seller is Hope using those shares. Maybe he has been manipulating the SP in order to keep the assets at a price where he can basically steal them from under our noses and Zaza has used the YA issue to force his hand. He could also have been accumulating through the YA conversions as that has been a source of large quantities of cheap shares for some time now. Just an idea to break the monotony of most of today's threads.

Looks like we need two new directors now. I vote for Mole and Coggy.

Zib a lot of loans have restrictive conditions attached that can kick in prior to the maturity date. For example a certain debt:equity ratio has to be maintained, assets cannot be sold or pledged etc. I think it is something like this that has sparked the dispute with Outrider. It might be as basic as the very fact of a JV is considered by the legal boffins as impairing the assets that underpin the loan security. I believe it has something to do with the YA dispute. Time will tell. GLA .

The good point is that the Cayman court will have seen the basis of the YA dispute and agreed with FRR's position otherwise they would not have given the injunction.

Hearing = heading

Good post. I think the Outrider issue is related to the YA dispute (someone else alluded to it earlier). The hearing for the RNS today is Dispute, the same as was used in the first 2 RNSs on the subject. The YA dispute has probably triggered a default clause in the Outrider loan which requires FRR to put its assets as security. The injunction is to hold that at bay until the YA matter is settled.

Oops, missed a comma. Wy, are you back?

Wy are you back?

Come on FRR, I need .54 to break even.

Drinks on you then:)

When I was doing my calculations the one thing that kept bothering me was Zaza's comment about one of the majors thinking there is even more oil/gas in the ground than FRR had calculated. The numbers were already ridiculous so for us outsiders to guestimate a price is crazy. Just live the dream.

Thanks for the comments, as I said jmo. I was trying to step back from a complete buyout (very unlikely) but use the fair value of the whole company as a starting point. A very difficult figure to determine, but I came up with $2.5-$3billion. I then said 10% up front and the balance by way of royalties and free carry. It The rest was how I would split the upfront payment - definitely first payment would be YA redemption. The best thing about it though is that this kind of debate suddenly seems real.

The YA debt amount is peanuts in comparison to the value of the project. It is just a pity that the YA stigma has such a negative effect on the share price.

Given that Zaza has indicated that there will most likely be a number of partnerships entered into I don't expect a massive upfront payment. The risk factor is still quite high so the majors may not want to carry a big capital outlay from the start. So possibly enough to pay a 1p dividend (+/- $200m) and then a further $50-$100m for working capital and debt redemption in total. Thereafter a free carry on development costs and not less than 25% royalties but probably nearer 50%. That would get YA out the way so we might then see a share consolidation, or my preference, a share buyback scheme announced. After all, how will they spend all the cash that will start pouring in. Jmo and really looking forward to the next few weeks. GLA

Because our friendly MMs have had the gap so wide you could drive a tank through it.

First time I've got a firm price on 10m this morning. Someone is short of shares.

All who have reported back. The bit I loved was the proposition from one of the majors that would reduce capex by $300 and improve revenues by $1-2 billion. You can imagine what the original figures must have been if these are just the changes. That's one sh*tload of hydrocarbons. It's going to be one hell of a pension.

Mole you have set out very clearly what most lth really want out of an update meeting. Perhaps you could add to get an update on the various disputes as well, being YA, the GG arbitration and the tax refund. Clarity on those issues would go a long way to calming some nerves. Enjoy the evening.

Why at .31, I'm almost prepared to bet that it gets cancelled.

Coggy, time to write the final chapter of your book - the one where the dream comes true :)