You register yesterday here and your first posts are to deramp ECR. WOWOWOW If you read the holdings RNS, the shareholder increased his holding and not the other way round. How many shares he has left? I guess the same as yesterday.
Rubbish! He makes some suggestion about loans that don't exist and then never elaborates. Only leaving the seed for people to start questioning something that is not there. Maybe people should do their research instead to listening to DocH. And another thing, twitter tips and pump and dump twits connot replace one's own research!
Sorry mate, I don't know what you are talking about. You need to explain and provide links to twitter. If I were you, I wouldn’t believe anything that is on twitter. Directors are heavily invested in Con including John's kids.
'DocH negativity' - what do you mean?
ProTr.Amr.H - How is MATD doing? Oh not, still falling! Where are you going to reduce your average there?
like yesterday for results next week?
Dargg - Can you please provide the source without getting people in trouble?
John Teeling has said that he thought that the true value of the asset (Stonepark) should have been $7 per ton. $7 x 30mt (proven reserves that could improve dramatically to more than the 42mt suggested) = $210m (23.44% share) = $49m (£31m) You do the maths what value CON should be today based on that asset alone.
Interesting finish. One MM on Level 2 pushed price to auction over another MM at 2.25p for 115k buy which settled at 2.3050p. I wasn't expecting this finish.
Missed another rise? What a shame. How is matd doing?
Can sell at full ask a large amount. This indicates that there is a big buyer in the background.
Agree DShox. Has there been a leak?
Sellers can sell at full ask which is strange. Maybe the buyer has upped the buy order. Something must be happening in the background.
There seems to be a buy order at 2.30. The buyer is hoovering up all sells at 2.30. MM's don't want to up the sell price.
I think we could be close to maybe selling Stonepark. Zinc is trading at $2870 per ton and to make any project in Ireland commercial, companies need Zinc to be above $1200 per ton to break even. Ireland has the best quality Zinc in the world and we have 30mt + with our JV with Teck at Stonepark alone plus a Gold discovery at Donegal. £1.4m MC? That is totally crazy!
From 2013 PP Presentation from Con Newcastle West Block: Zinc/Lead * Teck returned this 10 licence block to Connemara in Q4 2012 * Located approx. 20km southeast of Stonepark area * 14 drill holes completed totalling 3228 metres (Red stars) * Intercepts from on-trend mineralisation include: * 5.3m grading 9.6% Zn, 2.1 %Pb * 4.5m grading 12.3% Zn, 1.6% Pb * Connemara has identified 5 high potential areas on the block * 5 Eastern licences surrendered in April Interesting to see that Teck decided not to pursue this JV but wanted to keep Stonepark and Oldcastle. More from the 2013 PP Presentation Limerick Area: Teck JV: Zinc/Lead on Stonepark/Monaster * Comprises of six connecting licences in County Limerick * 23.8% owned by the Company, 76.2% owned by Teck Ireland Ltd. €7.4m spent to date * Located 5km away from the Xstrata Pallas Green zinc discovery * Three significant zones of zinc mineralisation (Appendix 1 and 2) all of which remain open: * Stonepark (discovered 2007) * Stonepark North – High Grade (2009) * Stonepark West (2011) * Principal issue for Teck is whether there is 30m mineable tonnes at sufficient grade * Xstrata is completing a pre-feasibility study on Pallas Green. They need more ore. The interesting points here are 'Xstrata is completing a pre-feasibility study on Pallas Green. They need more ore.' 'Principal issue for Teck is whether there is 30m mineable tonnes at sufficient grade'. Could the Teck related bullet point mean that they want to keep their interest in the license because there is enough 'mineable tonnes at sufficient grade' that is worthwhile for a major to develop? Could the second point mean that Teck and Glencore (ex-Xstrata) could create a JV and combine both licenses and develop a mega project that will be very profitable at these prices?
VALUATION Deriving a value for Connemara Mining is difficult given the early stage nature of exploration and absence of any compliant resource figures. However as Connemara’s main project at Stonepark lies next to Pallas Green upon which a JORC figure has been estimated and both deposits may be part of the same mineralised system, it is possible to determine a projected exploration value. For our model we have estimated that there is a 80% chance that Stonepark and Pallas Green are part of the same system, given our geological understanding of the area. The next question is does the majority of the deposit sit on Connemara’s side or at Pallas Green? As Pallas Green is further ahead in the exploration cycle, we would have to assume for prudence purposes that the majority, circa 75% lies at Pallas Green, with Connemara’s JV property holding the remaining 25%. Further exploration at Stonepark may prove the reverse is true, with the head of the deposit located within Connemara’s ground instead of the tail. In our valuation we have assumed that the combined zinc/lead grade at Stonepark will be the same as Pallas Green. Again this may be too pessimistic as the higher grade part of the deposit could be on Connemara’s side. Indeed drilling data so far eludes to the potential that a higher grade may be present at Stonepark. By applying a 5% exploration value for the estimated contained metal at $2,400 per tonne and using the assumptions and estimates outlined above we calculate a risked current project value for Stonepark of $18.4m. On a price per share basis this comes to 50p, which includes 6p per share for the Group’s current cash. If Stonepark proves to be as large as Pallas Green then the exploration value to Connemara will be higher. A nil value has been applied to other Connemara licences, given their earlier stage position. http://www.connemaramc.com/res/file/optiva_08_03_2011.pdf
KEY PROJECT & LOCATION STRENGTHS Connemara is exploring in elephant territory as Ireland is the number one for zinc discoveries per square kilometre in the world. The Navan mine is the largest zinc mine in Europe. In addition to Teck other majors such as Xstrata and Lundin are pursing exploration JVs in the country. Extensive strategic portfolio of 33 exploration licences in Ireland covering over 1,000 sq kms. The Group is the fourth largest ground holder by size in the country. Has the technical and financial backing of JV partner Canadian major Teck Resources at Stonepark and Newcastle West. A number of high grade discoveries have been made on Connemara’s Stonepark licence. The mineralised area covers at least 650 metres in length by 100 to 150 metres wide and is open to the north and south. At the closest point the Stonepark discovery lies just 4.5km from Minco/Xstrata’s Pallas Green deposit, upon which an Inferred JORC resource of 25.9mt at 8.89% zinc equivalent has been defined. We estimate there is a 80% chance that Stonepark and Pallas Green could be part of the same orebody. Following a £1m Placing in February 2011 Connemara is funded for at least the next 12‐ months to continue its JV with Teck and pursue its own 100% interests. Both Teck/Connemara and Xstrata/Minco will be undertaking expanded exploration programmes this year which will lead to increased newsflow and investor interest on both project areas.
RECOMMENDATION & VALUATION We update our ‘Buy’ advice on Connemara Mining with a 12 month target price of 50p per share based upon a risked exploration value for Stonepark, as detailed on the next page. From what is known so far we believe there is a high 80% probability that Stonepark and Pallas Green are part of the same mineralised deposit. Given that Pallas Green is further advanced in the exploration cycle than Stonepark and more is known about it, we have taken the prudent view that only 25% of the total Stonepark/Pallas Green deposit lies on Connemara’s JV ground. As more knowledge is gained from further drilling, we should be able to determine where the head of the deposit sits. If it lies at Stonepark instead of Pallas Green then our target price would be higher. In addition any future resource upgrade at Pallas Green would increase our estimate of the overall deposit size. No value has been attached to any of the Group’s other 27 licences in our calculation, given their early stage nature. Therefore any new exploration discoveries by Connemara on its strategically held ground across Ireland could lead to a re‐rating in the stock. Thurles is one such licence block holding the potential to surprise investors, as it shares many of the geological characteristics of the nearby Lisheen mine. Drilling started on the block at the end of last month. Since our last recommendation for Connemara on 30 July 2010, the valuation gap between Connemara and Minco has widened, despite an improving investment case for both explorers and stronger underlying zinc prices. The shares in Minco have risen by 78% during this period, whilst Connemara has moved ahead by only 29%. We believe it is time for this valuation gap to narrow.
DShox - I agree. How much do you think Stonepark could be worth? We are only drilling one hole at Oldcastle. Could they have found something interesting because it is taking a while to release the results? If they had found nothing, Con (looking at previous RNS's) releases the information quickly. Furthermore, Con also usually says that samples have been sent to be analysed and then we get the results.