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Our current PE = we are undervalued, which means the SP and Mcap is too low
Higher PE than today's = higher Share price
Then, you look at the PE ratio of Mara and Riot and just by looking at the numbers, you can see how they are overvalued or Argo undervalued. With a similar PE to the one of MARA our SP would be around 6 GBP. At RIOT's current PE, our SP would be north of 15 GBP.
James, kind of yep. As I said before, I was being conservative. If you add other income flows (Zcash, Pluto, etc.) then the PE ratio is even lower. Then you look at those RIOT and MARA in Nasdaq, and the potential for us is just mind-blowing.
The best thing is that Argo does not need ramping, just basic maths.
Enjoy the ride.
Bella, agree. Just wanted to put it nice and simple with the big slice of the income flow, and should be quite accurate to current. Those figures can be corrected, however only upgraded.
Right, the mining difficulty is going to increase, but I am not sure how, when and what rate.
We are also increasing our mining capacity though. The variables in the projection equations are:
* BTC price
* Mining difficulty
* More miners increasing capacity too, and consequently increasing difficulty of mining
James, let's see if this helps. But bear in mind is approximative and I am going conservative here.
Production: 150 BTC mined per month *12 = 1800
Revenue: 1800 *60K = 108M USD
Cost: 8K USD per BTC is the cost of production, so 1800*8K = 14.4m USD
Earnings: 108M USD - 14.4M = 93.6M USD
Current Mcap: 1.12B USD
PE Ratio: 1.12B/93.6M USD which equals ± 12.
I am not accounting many favourable facts though (and a few small unfavourable), so that PE ratio is probably even lower. Production is already higher than 150BTC, we will probably HODL our current BTC, BTC is going most likely higher, etc.
Right, and I believe the only thing holding us back right now is that question mark, as in the US investors don't like dilutions. However in this case PW is playing the right card. With the BTC so bullish, I rather have him making small dilutions that selling BTC. It is a smart move, PW is just pulling that catapult. Once that last dilution is clear and gone, the SP is going to go mental.
Yep Rookie, I am with you there. I am also not taking into account other potential income (i.e. Zcash or Pluto, etc.).
I just need to adjust the shares outstanding number, but these numbers are quite spot-on, and highlight the big potential here. If BTC stays at these levels or go higher, our mcap/SP is very undervalued currently.
If we think about today's scenario with 150BTC mined per month at 60K, the current PE Ratio is 13.
If that's the case I need to re-calculate, and happy to do so, however:
* The change is minimal, we are talking decimals in the big picture. We basically went from 365 to 381, which in the big scheme of things is F%$k all.
* Can someone confirm the 381 and what will be the next dilution, if known?
So to answer your question, with BTC at 150K USD:
Mining 150 BTC per month
PE Ratio 10: 7 USD / 5 GBP
PE Ratio 20: 14 USD / 10 GBP
PE Ratio 30: 21 USD / 15 GBP
PE Ratio 40: 28 USD / 20 GBP
Mining 200 BTC per month
PE Ratio 10: 9 USD / 6.5 GBP
PE Ratio 20: 18 USD / 13 GBP
PE Ratio 30: 27 USD / 19.5 GBP
PE Ratio 40: 36 USD / 26 GBP
In a very negative outcome: 150 BTC mined per month / BTC price of 30K / PE ratio of 10
150 * 12 months = 1,800 BTC
1,800 * 30K = 54M USD
54M - 14M (cost of mining) = 40M USD
40M * 10 = 400M USD
400M USD / 365M shares = 1.1 USD /0.72 GBP SP
Conservative 150 BTC mined per month / BTC price of 60K / PE Ratio of 20
150 * 12 months = 1,800 BTC
1,800 BTC * 60,000 USD = 108M USD
108M USD - 14M USD = 94M USD
94M USD * PE Ratio of 20 = 1.9B USD
2.2B USD / 365M shares = ± 5 USD / 3.6GBP per share
With 150 mined per month BTC at 100K USD / PE Ratio of 20: SP of 9 USD / 6.47 GBP
With 200 mined per month BTC at 100K USD / PE Ratio of 20: SP of 12 USD / 8.6 GBP
With 200 mined per month BTC at 100K USD / PE ratio of 30: SP 18 USD / 13 GBP
With 200 mined per month BTC at 100K USD / PE ratio of 40: SP 24 USD / 17 GBP
MARA has a PE ratio of 34, RIOT 89. If get to NASDAQ and BTC goes to 100K (which seems very possible), then we are talking 13/15 GBP and is still low, as the PE ratio could even be higher, and we could probably get to mine more than 200 per month pre-Texas. Then in 9 months, that figure could double or triple.
Mara went from 2 USD in Nov to 6 in December, to 11 in January, to 22 February, to 43 mid-Feb. Similar to Riot, 3 USD in Nov, 9 in Dec, 16 in Jan, 20 in Feb, 73 now.
Different market caps though: RIOT 5B, MARA 4B, Argo 1.4B. For Argo reaching 50USD would mean 18B mcap, which is totally mad, but also Mara and Riot might have just started, especially if the crazy predictions of bitcoin price ny mid-year and YE become true. But it would also mean absolutely crazy PE ratios. Impossible is nothing, but a conservative 10/15 USD is for sure on the cards.
This is a good analysis from January 11th when the SP was at 1.58 USD in the OTC. Looks spot on to me! and even a bit conservative. PT between 4 and 16 USD depending on BTC progress and PE ratio.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t2sNU0cLOn0