Member Info for LTbeliever

NFX is at 5mln now, 1mln of it being cash. So the mkt values the 2 ODDs, the IP, the patents and the years spent on research @4mln. More upside or downside, you think?

U can have another look at this (from page 17):

https://nuformix.com/app/uploads/2022/11/Nuformix-Non-Confidential-Corporate-Summary-November-QA-Final-v2.pdf

Development Stage No. of Deals Average Upfront Fee Average Total Deal Value

Pre-clinical 2 £67m £328m

And I reiterate - this small virtual firm, raising 1mln in this market, on just the promise of a future possible deal is QUITE an achievement; and IMO, the Co opted to raise the full whack (1mln) instead of 200-300k so as to solely focus on the studies and negotiations w.o any more distractions.

Next RNS will be about the studies' results and/or a deal, can anyone see any negatives ahead??

2 years of knocking on doors, discussing, getting mkt feedback, WHILST getting the EMA ODD, the FDA ODD, AND getting specific data requests to complete out-licensing deals; I'm a newbie here (since October) so I see the glass half full (and keep buying at drops such as today's).

U can either see the glass half-empty and moan about the past, or use your opportunity to make serious money.

FFXS, it's not as if the pharma world revolves around NFX; small players approach the big guys with suggestions/data, big boys have a look, put it on ice, look at something else, wait for budget funding etc; it doesn't mean they have been talking to the same party/ies all this time, and it doesn't mean that the discussions were non-stop; for the big boys, this is just a sideshow, they are takers so they call the shots. NFX moved slower than probably was warranted, to save money. Now it can move fast, this is what matters henceforth IMO.

A) we don't know this until we get a TR-1

b) BoD already own appx 5%, now down to 4% if they have not participated

c) back in October everyone rushed to buy at the 0.20 Public Offer, now they think 0.20 is a bad price to buy in?

FFXS, are you saying that eg M&S should invest/sign agreements with all of its potential suppliers, before it has even seen the final product???

Big Pharma has many potential avenues to create drugs; they buy small firms developing drugs, they buy the IP to the drug, they co-develop drugs; so, they have to see at the data (specifically requested) before assessing if/how this fits in with their targets re a specific drug.

I agree, Soup; business confidentiality is a must in such negotiations; and the Partner/s want to see the data that satisfies them before signing on the dotted line, so yes, it's NFX's risk until they agree / sign terms. But on the other hand, if the data comes as expected by NFX, then NFX has more leverage in such negotiations because only the out-licensing fee/s will be left to agree on, IMO.

Therefore, NFX is

Fully funded, ongoing discussions re specific data requested by interested partners, zero exposure to the war/oil price/economic disruption etc; basically, NFX is now a defensive stock with huge potential, to be realised in a matter (not if) of weeks, IMO.

5.5mln mkt cap before the ODD RNS; 6.5mln mkt cap AFTER ODD;

1mln cash raised, normally this would mean 6.5+1 divided by new total shares i.e. 16-25% dilution (7.5/2.6 = 0.288p), depending on severity of reaction;

BUT we have now 2.6bln shares @0.20 i.e. post-placing mkt cap of 5.2mln i.e. lower than w/o ODD and with zero cash to get the out-licensing deals in a few weeks time!

CRAZY!

One more point - for an investor (or group of) to fork out 1mln, in the middle of a war, to spend on a "high-risk" pharma minnow (with all the negative history of delays etc), it has to be a good story in the near future, right?

2 key points IMO (my CAPS), implying that these studies have been requested by potential partners and that a deal or deals can close upon some of the data being produced:

"identified during ONGOING out-licensing discussions with BOTH large pharmaceutical and speciality pharma partners",

" it is not expected that ALL the studies will need to CONCLUDE for an out-licensing or collaborative development transaction to complete."

16% appx dilution, fully de-risked. Hints below?

"In particular, the net proceeds will be used to fund a focused programme of additional pre-clinical studies to reinforce areas identified during ongoing out-licensing discussions and due diligence with both large pharmaceutical and speciality pharma partners, and to further advance the NXP002 programme. Whilst completion of the focused studies will represent important value inflection points for the NXP002 programme it is not expected that all the studies will need to conclude for an out-licensing or collaborative development transaction to complete."

Https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/nuformix--nfx/-1-0-million-placing/9468093

Sounds bullish and confident.

SBayliss, mate of G Watt? Why would anyone buy 7% of PIP, at this time? Only TED is left. Either he's clueless, or he has a lot of faith? :))

Dan had said, back in October, that p/ship news would follow soon after the ODD; "soon" may be some days/weeks, but not months IMO.

NFX is de-risked now, with the ODD in the bag; only "risk" now is available cash, but even if the Co had to raise 200-300k (2-3% dilution) to see it through to a p/ship deal, so be it; of course, if the deal is announced first, then the dilution will be negligible (less than 1%? ). So, big upside Vs 1-2% potential dilution IMO.

Soup, tnx for correcting; obviously, "the partner" will fund phase I, which is part of the negotiations.

I assume now that discussions with potential partners are revolving around a) upfront licensing fee b) time/funds needed to phase II c) royalties after product launch; obviously, these should have been already at an advanced stage but with the ODD now, the deal closure is nearer; any delay will be due to NFX weighing all the prons and cons.