Member Info for LTbeliever

At least, even though the S&P 500 may drop another 5-10% before bottoming, we have some positives:
1. Putin has not declared nuclear war!
2. China's lockdown is reducing demand for metals/energy etc AND means more demand for our water monitoring;
3. Mass PD production is only a few weeks away

Would it be irrational to assume that, before the 21st, the Co would - ideally - issue an RNS about its progress on various fronts, so that it has something recent + positive + exciting to discuss with potential new investor-Institutions?
The alternative would be to discuss the precipitous SP fall (albeit, due to the overall market malaise)!

https://www.msn.com/en-xl/africa/top-stories/global-scramble-for-metals-thrusts-africa-into-mining-spotlight/ar-AAX28SV?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=385c90d4106d44ddb57355755c4814d3

https://www.lse.co.uk/SharePrice.asp?shareprice=0NHS&share=Nutrien-Ord

Nutrien's P/E is 19 and has a production of 15mln tonnes. Mkt cap of almost $60 bln.

If KP2 produces 2.5 mln tonnes, that's 1/6th - implying a Mkt cap of $10 bln???? At prices of $850/ton of course, but even at $400/ton, a mkt cap of $5 bln is quite realistic.
100x increase in the SP over 5 years is probably a risk well worth it!
DYOR

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/05/06/putins-war-ukraine-another-la-nina-drought-last-straw-global/

Provided we get some good news soon, KP2 should hopefully be a good hedge in the coming market slump.
Firstly, Tech stocks will bear the brunt of the selling, being the most overpriced stocks,
Secondly, interest rates going up reduce the valuations of all stocks, but above all stocks that eat up a lot of cash against the promise of future profits;
Although KP2 is bound to be affected too, it has a few pluses;
It operates in food production in effect, with prices of its (future) production still high and expected to remain high (until Putin is removed, sanctions on the 40% RUS/BELARUS market share will remain in place);
Food is the last thing people will reduce spending on;
High barriers to entry due to huge cost, and time lag in developing a mine (affects KP2 too of course, which needs about $1.5 bln for the mine development).
In a market of uncertain, volatile returns, steady cash flow (if and when KP2 gets it) becomes more valuable.
50-60% of LTshareholders, who are not trigger happy, provide a solid foundation for the Share price.
All IMO, DYOR and GLA

Best scenario:
Full production (2.6 mln tonnes annually) in less than 4 years, at a net profit of MIN $200 per ton, implying annual cash flows of $500 mln and a Mkt cap of $5 billion (about 100x from today's price).
Worst case scenario - the 2-3 RNSs expected in the next 1-2 months to announce that no mine development will take place (eg because US rates are going up etc).

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-04/eu-proposes-sanctions-on-main-belarus-potash-companies

Sorry, no access to the full article!

https://korepotash.com/investors/aim-rule-26/

Yes, 50%, I think people counted also shares held by Nominees such as HL, II etc., which are held mostly by PIs.

I guess that the main share price catalysts, over the next 6-8 weeks are the following: (feel free to correct)

1. EPC submitted to the Co; promised WITHIN 2 months from April 2nd, so expected by end of May?
2. Co's acceptance of EPC terms - how long will this take? 1-2 weeks?
3. Submission of Financing proposal by the Consortium, AFTER EPC's acceptance by the Co - another 1-2 weeks?

I think parts of 1 and 2 are already reflected in the Share Price somewhat, so I assume that the SP would jump considerably if 3. is favourable to the Co i.e. 40 months' construction, zero need for capital injection by the Co, and sufficient offtake arrangements at a high enough Price per ton. IMO
GLA

What if there are already orders for PD but cannot be disclosed due to NDAs?
We expect by Quarter end, sometime in June, news about the start of mass production; we also expect an update on China Res, I think GJB promised that by H1 end, right?
Given a) the cost of producing units b) the available 20+ mln loan c) minimum 20 PD units installed in China,
then it's logical to assume that the Co will not just burn cash mass producing PDs without any pre-orders; it'd be logical to announce start of production together with details of orders, right?
Who is big enough to have pre-ordered lots of PDs? Just guessing but...China Resources is very likely one of various big clients.
Just a few weeks to know what's going on.
GLA

https://www.msn.com/en-xl/health/other/scientists-link-forever-chemicals-exposure-to-liver-damage/ar-AAWDynQ?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=b8905a98c0ac411a98da369da847bf67

Who knows?
Way things are going, Mtox PD might just save Xi's skin and soon Gerry will be having his pics taken with Xi!

I got in this morning, with a 300k lot but can average down, need be.

Anybody has access to the Cannacord research (i.e. how the 3p target is derived)?

Obviously, China Resources is not dead yet BUT...delay might be due to the Chinese being greedy or wanting access to the IP of the technology etc. Or (wishful) the scale and scope of the project keeps going up!
For sure though, as Covid keeps demonstrating, China is in dire need of monitoring and advance warning to prevent further big city lockdowns.

Thanks NU,
I didn't bother mentioning long-shots such as China Resources, Mtox BT, any lithium deals from waste water disposal in Asia etc.
Only the certain RNSs by end of June :)

No worries NU,
The next 10 weeks (to H1 end) will definitely bring news on the WM trials, Mtox PD mass production and numbers on sales (q2) and margins (H2 21); any RNS on STC or Labskin will be a bonus. (tailwinds)
At the same time, we will have more clarity on US interest rates, the war and inflation (headwinds).
Low volumes is not necessarily a bad thing, as speculators have stepped aside whereas the rest of us LTH, are waiting for the next leg up. SP now close to 50SMA, next stop after a good RNS or two will be 22-23p (200SMA). IMO
GLA

NU,
Good to see you back. GJB may just want to cover more City sell-side analysts i.e. Brokers promoting DVRG to their investment and private clients. IMO any publicity is bound to be better than nothing.

I think that by then he'll release 1-2 good RNSs, to go to the show with a tailwind behind DVRG.
And more stuff will be made public about STC, to promote the brand further to the City boys.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/apr/25/eu-unveils-plan-largest-ever-ban-on-dangerous-chemicals

Not just good for MW...also good for STC and Labskin as cosmetics with chemicals will be in trouble.