Member Info for LTbeliever

NU,

For 2022, MSYS had Sales of a minimum 1.5 (probably more) to DVRG, and I assume another 300-500k to other parties.

In Q1 23, the RNS stated "a pipeline of 2mln, 90% non-DVRG related"; how much of this will convert to Revenues, we may find out by June 30th.

But remember that DVRG has contracts of a min 10mln to deliver (at least half in 2023) and it needs MSYS collaboration to deliver on most of these (Modern Water business) so I assume 1-2 mln still has to come from DVRG in 2023; so - IMO - DVRG's share should gradually drop to less than 33% of MSYS business by year end.

But, we will have more clarity in 3 weeks.

I think MSYS will publish 2022 Results, irrespective of DVRG's status; worst case scenario - IMO - if the settlement plan is not agreed by then, the Auditors will insert a note in Accounts with a big Bad Debt provision (eg 50% of the debt?).

Don't forget that the 40% drop in MSYS Mkt cap, re the 1.4 mln debt , is bigger than 1.4mln, hence it's reasonable to say that the Mkt has already assumed the worst with respect to MSYS recovering the debt; this is why I am saying that should a settlement plan with DVRG is announced and signed off by both Auditors, then the SP will jump accordingly.

And just to add re DVRG -- the more we develop our non-DVRG side of business, the less leverage DVRG will have on us re the Debt owed to MSYS (assuming the settlement discussions are still ongoing); of course the main issue is DVRG staying in business so when DVRG (and MSYS) release audited results (on going concern basis) then things will be much clearer (and less risky).

And reducing reliance on the DVRG side of the business. All positive.

2 are taking place in N. America and the Wales' one is being sponsored by MSYS (Gold sponsor); further evidence of no cash flow issues. IMO

Https://www.microsaic.com/2023/06/07/microsaics-summer-conference-schedule/

NU,

That's possible but it depends on many factors eg overall Mkt situation, numbers for both 2022 (2.5mln MIN sales) and H1 23 (Sales of 1.5-2mln would be nice), and outlook for H2 23 (eg deals with new players in new areas - big pharma, China?), if Kingfield is producing the goods etc.

Maybe an apology too by GJB for ripping MSYS off would be helpful :)))

Just to make the speculation more fun, I'd say that by end of June, the Co will have a Cash b/ce of a

min. of 1mln, possibly rising to a

max of 1.8mln (if DVRG pays 50k pm re the 1.4mln, plus the 500k Tax refunds due, plus higher Net Revenues).

This 'd imply that MSYS will be both profitable and net-cash generative sometime in 2023.

Adding to the below calculation, MSYS had a Gross Margin of 60% in H1 22, therefore a max Cost of Sales of 40% (maybe better in H2 22 and even higher in H1 23); therefore, if from Jan 1st 2023 its monthly Sales were - say - 300k, then its CoS (and cash eaten up) are about 120kpm, but 30 days later the Co collects 300k - so, a net increase to cash b/ces of 180k per month (based on above assumptions).

GLA, I think the Mkt will be pleasantly shocked in 3 weeks.

Https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/MSYS/half-year-report-acy4dadfivljpct.html

As per above, MSYS had appx 2.5mln cash on 30 June 2022; it then financed DVRG with a net 1.4 mln; thereby at 31 Dec 2022 it had - net of other stuff - 1.1 mln; it also had oper exps of 600k in H1 2022 ("Cash absorbed by operating activities before working capital movements improved by £309,342 to £579,451 " ), so I assume that in H2 22 it had similar cash expenses (eg salaries) of 600k, leaving it with a MAXIMUM (as I don't know what else cash may have been spent on during H2 22) of CASH 500k at Y/E 22. (fell free to correct/ check my logic).

Therefore, 500k (max) on Jan 1st, rising to 800k on April 17th means that MSYS (IMO) is

a) able to cover its monthly running expenses from monthly revenues;

b) all customers are on 30-day credit terms (incl. DVRG for 2023 sales), meaning that the 800k Cash b/ce of April is sufficient to cover its W Cap needs (because this amount can amply cover monthly sales of even 300-400k).

Conclusion -IMO- MSYS is doing well, making money, covers its monthly bills and we just need the RNS to confirm this.

One kernel of comfort is that N. Burton, who probably covered his mate in all of his actions in MSYS and DVRG, is down 75% on the money he injected in Feb. 2022 (to exercise his share options).

I don't know which is worse:

a) knowingly misrepresenting DVRG Sales' figures for 2022 (fraud?); or,

b) getting the numbers wrong due to the incompetence of himself, the CFO and the Board;

Having said that, he cleverly (fraud?) channeled MSYS cash to finance DVRG WCap in H2 22, so this leads me to a) above, not b). Let's see what numbers are produced in 3 weeks and whether the Mkt, importantly, will believe these numbers, given his record with the truth.

We know GJB is a croo..k, he run both companies to the ground...but MSYS is stuck with him for now.

He is 58, 5 kids, lost most of his money in DVRG and has one last shot to make money at MSYS (if not disqualified by the FSA); he has a small holding of +3%, some in lieu of a cash fee, so he's already under water here too; he has some options (another 5% potentially) if the SP goes over 0.10 in the next 2 years or so.

My point being, he cannot afford NOT to make a success out of MSYS - he has 3 weeks to get his act together and release good numbers for 2022 and a great story for 2023, including our cash lent tto DVRG; if he messes up again......

Something for GJ Brandon to add to his CV; the greatest destruction of shareholder value in the least time.

NU,

I'm not sure about that;

DVRG shares may not be traded for a few weeks (worst case) but it can still be a going concern; remember that it has over 10mln of contracts to deliver in the next year/2, plus it's still receiving monthly revenues for existing servicing of contracts;

also, if 1.4 mln debt is w/off then DVRG's precarious position vastly improves; however, both parties (MSYS/DVRG) have an interest not to let this happen;

finally, even if MSYS loses the 1.4mln it does not mean it will go out of business; IMO, all these risks are already in the SP, hence I expect a big bounce back at June end - IMO

Maybe MSYS buying DVRG for 1.4mln cash?

We will know within the next 3 weeks if/how the debt will be repayable.

I don't think GJB would dare delay the 2022 Results any further.

Https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/DVRG/cost-reductionsdelay-to-ann-reportnew-contract-jy0jy8w2x3fw0nj.html

Yes, real kitchen sinking going on; share trading might be suspended too in July if audit not concluded;

I only see 2 positives (negatives are there for all to see):

1. If they sell labskin etc, they may solve their CF issues;

2. Modern Water getting a new contract in the EU (albeit Rev of 40k per month), despite their dire situation means MSYS' main client's operations are not so much affected. IMO

We will see the Mkt's reaction in 35 minutes.

Why would it bag on Monday?

It will, when we get the numbers IMO

This linkedin post just shows that the Co is working methodically with big partners, earning recurring fees, so we need the RNS to confirm the huge potential of such collaborations with blue chip pharma clients.

From LinkedIn:

https://lnkd.in/ebXa2MwC

Pharmaceutical companies are transforming drug discovery with high-throughput synthetic platforms. At Microsaic Systems, we're proud to play a pivotal role in this cutting-edge advancement. With early drug discovery challenges behind us, researchers are increasingly focused on shortening the design–make–test cycle for new drugs. Purification, historically a bottleneck, is being addressed with innovative technologies and systems.

Our Microsaic Systems MiD mass spectrometer is revolutionising multi-column LCMS prep purification. Compact and powerful, it offers full mass spec capability while requiring only 1L/min nitrogen. We're committed to providing exceptional technical support and service. Our team is dedicated to ensuring smooth high-throughput synthetic workflows, delivering compounds of high purity for immediate use in critical biological screenings.

I have said it before but I will repeat it; MSYS is down through the DVRG association (and debt uncertainty); therefore the SP can easily rise if/when;

1. DVRG proves (through RNS) that it can repay us; this hit the SP with a drop of around 40%.

2. MSYS shows that it's making money excluding DVRG's business;

Hence the SP could be pushed up by 2 different tailwinds (not mutually exclusive), IMO

NU,

At a mkt cap of 1.5mln, unless someone thinks we are going bust, the sensible thing to do is buy more.

The MKt however needs news and numbers before the SP can go up. IMO